SAT - Churchill Downs (Derby Day R1-R13)

Bogey · #1 05-01-2015, 11:04 PM

Happy Derby Day

Churchill Downs

R1 - OC 62k/N2X

#6 Tarpy's Surprise (5-1)
#2 Evan's Calling (8-1)
#5 Coastline (8-1) 2ND
#1 Maggi Moss Entry (7-2) 3RD

R2 - OC 75k/N1X

#4 Tapit Wicked (6-1)
#1 West Entry (9-2) 2ND
#8 Lewys Vaporizer (6-1) 3RD
#7 Island Town (5-1) WON $18.20

R3 - MSW 62k (Turf 8F)

#3 Coyote Moon (12-1)
#2 Thatcher Street (6-1) 2ND
#4 West Village (7-2) WON $10.00
#8 Big Ben (4-1)

R4 - OC 100k/C

#6 Cat Burglar (4-1) 2ND
#9 Almost Famous (8-1)
#8 Agent Di Nozzo (12-1) WON $49.20
#11 Bradester (5-1) 3RD

R5 - G3 Pat Day Mile

#5 Lord Nelson (3-1) - This looks like the preferred distance and seems to like Lu'ville. 4th
#6 Competitive Edge $4.60
#3 The Truth Or Else (15-1) - Will probably sit back and find best strides late.
#$ Hillbilly Royalty (8-1) - Should flash speed and hold on for a piece.

PK4 - 1 4 7 8 / 2 3 4 8 / 6 9 / 5 6 = $32 for $.50

R6 - G2 American Turf (Turf 8.5F)

#2 Wireless Future (15-1) - Has shown an affinity for the lawn and could get lost on the board.
#8 Conquest Typhoon (5-1) - Should appreciate return to the turf.
#1 Luck of the Kitten (7-2) - Looks to go from inside draw and must save something for late.
#4 Royal Son (5-1) - Tricky read, but recent pattern says he's set for a good one (1 good 1 bad).

R7 - G1 Humana Distaff

#8 Judy the Beauty (6-5) - Champ draws perfectly and Smith will have options. 2ND
#3 Dame Dorothy (9-2) - If they get silly up front she'll be flying late. WON $7.20
#1 Sweet Reason (5-1) - G1 winner working well for '15 bow. 4TH
#4 Clearly Confused (8-1) - Sits back and passes tiring rivals down the lane.

PK4 - 6 8 9 / 5 6 / 1 2 4 5 6 8 / 3 8 = $36 for $.50

R8 - G2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Turf 8F)

#9 Strike Charmer (12-1) - Loves this course and should be tighter 2nd off.
#3 Tepin (15-1) - That was a respectable group she beat in latest at GP. WON $20.20
#4 Lady Lara (Ire) (7-2) - Definitely in the mix with another favorable draw. 4TH
#5 Coffee Clique (3-1) - Defending champ and could easily improve in 2nd start of the year. 2ND

R9 - G2 Churchill Downs

#4 Private Zone (2-1) - Could prove to tough to reel in especially if the track is tighten up. WON $7.40
#2 Bayern (1-1) - Towers this field for sure, but this might be a prep for the Met Mile on Belmont Stakes day.
#1 C. Zee (15-1) - Seems to always fire regardless of post position.
#5 Pants On Fire (5-1) - A one time Derby favorite still firing at a high level. 3RD

R10 - G1 Turf Classic (Turf 9F)

#7 Jack Milton (5-1) - Seems to be sitting on a big year and this is a major hurdle at the 9 panels. 2ND
#9 Seek Again (4-1) - Not crazy about the outside draw, but he should be elated not to see Wise Dan in the starting gate. 3RD
#8 Stephanie's Kitten (9-2) - Connections show confidence in the mare because she would of been odds on versus her gender.
#2 Sky Captain (15-1) - Offers tremendous value underneath. 4TH

R11 - G1 Kentucky Derby

#1 Ocho Ocho Ocho (50-1) - Has not improved as a 3yr old and seems overmatched.
#2 Carpe Diem (8-1) - $1.6 Mil purchase was suppose to be here and has done everything right. Watch him in the post parade before sending it in.
#3 Materiality (12-1) - Has come a long way in only 3 starts and is a major contender despite that lack of seasoning. Has to avoid being bounced around in the first turn. Looking for him to run huge.
#4 Tencendur (30-1) - Seems to peaking at this point, but question his quality versus such a deep field.
#5 Danzig Moon (30-1) - Lots of sharpies have been raving about him the last two weeks, but he's in the deep end of the pool here.
#6 Mubtaahij (Ire) (20-1) - The wildcard has the best chance ever to overcome the Dubai to Derby win.
#8 Dortmund (3-1) - Has passed every test with flying colors and has not shown any weaknesses to this point. "Dorky" looms large.
#9 Bolo (30-1) - Will stay the trip and Turf types have had success in this race. Also, owns a triple digit BSF and will be ignored at the windows.
#10 Firing Line (12-1) - Could easily set the pace with a clean break and make the favorite earn every yard before turning for home.
#12 International Star (20-1) - Best in the Big Easy, but still hard to endorse against these. He'll be running late when others drop the anchor.
#13 Itsaknockout (30-1) - Got zapped from taxing Fountain of Youth effort and could run big after being freshened up.
#14 Keen Ice (50-1) - Has the closing style that has produced value underneath in Tris and Supers.
#15 Frosted (15-1) - Changes helped him tremendously and he's a factor with a clean trip.
#16 War Story (50-1) - Consistently runs his race, but it looks like he might want lesser to show his best.
#17 Mr. Z (50-1) - You'll probably see him in all three legs of the Triple Crown despite not being competitive versus this caliber.
#18 American Pharoah (5-2) - Has been brilliant, but this race is a different animal and he'll have to pass numerous tests with a target on his back.
#19 Upstart (15-1) - A picture of consistency and is proven to be top class.
#20 Far Right (30-1) - Smith will probably drop in early and hope to pick up some tired runners down the lane.
#21 Frammento (50-1) - Has never produced an effort that would make a dent on the race and deserves to be the highest price on the board.

Selections:

#8 Dortmund 3RD
#9 Bolo
#3 Materiality
#19 Upstart
#2 Carpe Diem

PK6 - 1 2 4 5 6 8 / 8 / 3 4 5 9 / 2 4 / 7 9 / 8 = $192

PK4 - 3 4 5 8 9 / 2 4 / 7 8 9 / 2 3 8 9 19 = $75 for $.50

OAKS / DERBY Double - - 1 2 7 8 10 13 / 3 8 9 = $18 X 4 = $72

OAKS / DERBY Double - Press - $10 - 7 10 13 / 8 9

OAKS / WOODFORD / DERBY - PK3 $1 - 1 2 7 8 10 13 / 7 8 9 / 3 8 9 = $54

R12 - OC 75k/N1X

#4 Guapo Man (5-1)
#2 Quality Bird (15-1)
#7 Pioneerof the West (6-1)
#3 Paid Admission (6-1) WON $14.00

R13 - MSW 62k

#9 Coaches Challenge (8-1) 3RD
#10 Sail Maker (6-1)
#6 Bent On Bourbon (5-2) WON $4.60
#4 Wild and Unbridled (12-1)

PK4 - 7 8 9 / 2 3 8 9 19 / 2 4 / 4 6 9 10 = $60 for $.50

Good Racing Luck