Churchill Downs Friday May 1

[Kitan]

Race 1:
#2 Chide: Impressive debut. Family has handled track well. Has followed suit in the morning.
#4 Julep: Tough trip last out. Expect repeat of debut.
#6 Big Red Seven
#7 Scadadle

Race 2:
#11 Vouch for Kitten: Ward has her ready on debut.
#12 Folded Wings: Very eventful stretch run in career bow.
#9 Kiteta: Dangerous if debut was no fluke.
#1 Zealous Madame: Would have been the top pick but no work in two weeks.
#3 Seoul Gold

Race 3:
#8 Curalina
#10 Rose to Glory

Race 4:
#2 Diva Express: Sold for 100x the sire price at the OBS sale last year. Turf work on the farm signals intent.
#7 Cash in My Pocket
#10 Catmeifyoucan
#9 Mighty Souper

Race 5:
#4 Ducasa: Should control the race alone up front.
#13 Awesome Jill
#12 Engaginglee
#11 Zeven
Adding #5 in my multis in case this is the day she breaks the recent duck. Realized I missed the 7 as well and will also add.

Race 6:
#5 Lady Zuzu: Disappointed in the SCR of #3 as she was extremely beatable, but that allows my top pick to get loose early.
#1 Quality Rocks

Race 7:
#7 Gold Medal Dancer: Winner at CD. Distance suits. No Untapable here.
#2 My Miss Sophia
#8 Molly Morgan
#5 Sheer Drama

Race 8:
#3 Neck 'n Neck: 4 for 4 on a fast CD strip, two of which were Graded Stakes.
#7 Honor Code: Won't get a fast pace and best work to date has been around one-turn.
#6 Midnight Cello: Working well on the surface. Should get a great trip. Numbers fit.
#2 Protonico: Never had his photo taken against anyone of real quality. Castellano choosing elsewhere a telling sign.

Race 9:
#9 Buster Rose: Completely new animal on the turf with a ferocious turn of foot. Love the way he strides out to the wire. Has been against lesser but haven't been impressed with a turf sprinter this side of the pond in quite some time. Hope he's ready off the shelf.
#3 Heitai: Not sure if he's the class, but when he's been run down it's been at 6f...
#11 Something Extra: Returned as good as ever. 5f will suit.
#12 Undrafted: 5f too short but always running on late for a share.
#2 Channel Marker: Turf sprinting his game. Not good enough to win but able to fill the exotics.

Race 10:
#11 Streetheart: Continued improvement expected as perfect stalking trip looms.
#8 Enchanting Lady: Looks the one to beat, but always wary when Bob doesn't ship them early. Garcia chooses here.
#1 Callback: DQ'ed as a result of her swerving around marks in the track yet still was game enough to cross the wire first. Shades on suggests she might try and run them off their feet like she did at SA...which may work, or set up the other Baffert.
#2 Promise Me Silver: Can't argue with a perfect 7 for 7.
I can see #12 being 4 or 5 wide dueling...7f is a definite concern regardless.

Race 11:
#10 Oceanwave: Filly packs an explosive kick. Commando's speed will lead her in beautifully.
#5 Condo Commando: Really want to beat her, but they might let her get away early. See Belle Gallantey.
#12 Stellar Wind: Sadler 1 for 31 in KY in the last 5. Can't be confident with that stat.
#2 Shook Up: Projects to get a better trip from an inner draw. Big overlay.
#9 Money'soncharlotte: Looks overmatched on paper, but really rallied well once she got her feet straight. Exotics bomb chance.

Race 12:
Originally wasn't fond of this race, but watching the replay of #1 Paid Up Subscriber I now remember this one from the race when Torres should have had the book thrown at him. Looks alone in a straightforward nightcap.


$0.60 Early Pick Four
Race 2: 9, 11, 12
Race 3: 8, 10
Race 4: 2, 7, 9, 10
Race 5: 4, 5, 11, 12, 13
$72.00

$0.60 Middle Pick Four
Race 4: 2, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11
Race 5: 4, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13
Race 6: 1, 5
Race 7: 2, 7
$86.40

$0.60 Stakes Pick Four
Race 8: 3, 6, 7
Race 9: 3, 9, 11
Race 10: 1, 2, 7, 8, 11, 12
Race 11: 2, 5, 10
$97.20

$20 Oaks/Derby Double
5, 10/15 (Condo Commando, Oceanwave / Frosted)
$40

$1 Oaks/Woodford/Derby P3
10/ALL(12)/15, 19 (Oceanwave / ALL / Frosted, Upstart) ... I am still unsure of what to do with Upstart, so this is my potential way of covering to him.
$24

Good luck!