Derby Favorite

[Smarty Cide]

Who do you think will be the derby favorite? I know this conversation is like a week too soon and we will have a better idea after next week. But I think as a whole this years crop looks like another solid one and I can see the favorite like 5-1 or so. As of now not much separates Dortmund, Materiality, American Pharaoh, Carpe Diem, Internatonal Star etc... and who knows how Mubtaahij fits into all of this. Granted maybe this will change after next week but right now as we stand today its hard to see a favorite at less then 5-1...

[asudevil]

The race certainly has added some speed (or more for that matter), with the additions of Stanford and Materiality.

[Smarty Cide]

doubt we get a long shot winning it this year bunch of good horses at the top of the class

[Thunder Gulch]

The good thing is that it's open because we have some really fast young 3yo's with decent pedigrees who don't need the lead. In many recent years, handicapping the Derby was tough because you didn't see a lot of particularly fast routers (+/-105 Beyer types), so it was a game of figuring out who was suited to pop a big number under fast paces.

[Kitan]

You're also getting three runners expected to take a lot of money (three of the top five, excluding field, from the last future wager pool), American Pharaoh, Materiality and Mubtaahij, that won't win the Derby. That means you'll get relatively good odds on Dortmund or Carpe Diem, and overlay odds on runners who normally wouldn't be in the mid teens or higher in other years, such as Upstart.

[senator L]

I think the favorite will be well under 5-1. More like 2-1.
The (2) biggest fav's will be American Pharaoh and Dortmund
depending on their last race of course. Horses between 4-1 and 9-1
will be Upstart, Materiality and Mubtaahi the rest will be dbl digits imo

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by senator L

I think the favorite will be well under 5-1. More like 2-1.
The (2) biggest fav's will be American Pharaoh and Dortmund
depending on their last race of course. Horses between 4-1 and 9-1
will be Upstart, Materiality and Mubtaahi the rest will be dbl digits imo

Idk about the 2-1 part.

It's tough to envision ANY horse going off at 2-1 in this year's KD, too wide open. There really isnt a 'standout' like Cali Chrome was last yr, imo.

Cant wait for the gate(s) to open!

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by senator L

I think the favorite will be well under 5-1. More like 2-1.
The (2) biggest fav's will be American Pharaoh and Dortmund
depending on their last race of course. Horses between 4-1 and 9-1
will be Upstart, Materiality and Mubtaahi the rest will be dbl digits imo

No way. Since they set it up for 20 parimutuel entries, I can only think of a handful who were that short, and they were standouts going in. This is a deep crop. Plus, with bombs like Giacomo and Mine That Bird, the crowd just won't let those who look to be 50-1 go off at those prices. Unless there are a couple of big defections, it's a 7-2 or 4-1 favorite.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

No way. Since they set it up for 20 parimutuel entries, I can only think of a handful who were that short, and they were standouts going in. This is a deep crop. Plus, with bombs like Giacomo and Mine That Bird, the crowd just won't let those who look to be 50-1 go off at those prices. Unless there are a couple of big defections, it's a 7-2 or 4-1 favorite.

I see 4/5-1 unless something sensational happens.

[ateamstupid]

My guess is Dortmund at around 7-2. There's no way anyone will be close to 2-1.

[cakes44]

AP will be the solid favorite after he dominates next weekend IMO. 3-1.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by cakes44

AP will be the solid favorite after he dominates next weekend IMO. 3-1.

He would have to damn near lap that Ark Derby field to be bet down to 3-1, IMO.

Unless he or Dortmund win their next race by the length of the stretch, I just cant see any horse in the race going off at 3-1.

Even if the favorite sits at 3-1 throughout the day, people will play elsewhere thus raising the favorite's odds, again, imo.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

He would have to damn near lap that Ark Derby field to be bet down to 3-1, IMO.

Unless he or Dortmund win their next race by the length of the stretch, I just cant see any horse in the race going off at 3-1.

Even if the favorite sits at 3-1 throughout the day, people will play elsewhere thus raising the favorite's odds, again, imo.

Might be right.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Might be right.

Let's just hope I'm DEFINITELY right in choosing which 4 will hit the line first!


There's just so many choices with this crop, I'm hoping Firing Line gets overlooked because he beat up on lesser quality in the Sunland Derby, but his close calls w/ Dortmund will keep his number from being high.

[cakes44]

I'm already all in on AP in futures, so I really don't care what odds anyone goes off at.

[senator L]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

No way. Since they set it up for 20 parimutuel entries, I can only think of a handful who were that short, and they were standouts going in. This is a deep crop. Plus, with bombs like Giacomo and Mine That Bird, the crowd just won't let those who look to be 50-1 go off at those prices. Unless there are a couple of big defections, it's a 7-2 or 4-1 favorite.

Probably right with 20 horses. The last (2) winners that were 2-1
were Big Brown and Fusaichi Pegasus. If Dortmund wins the SA Derby
I think he'll be 2-1 or 3-1 at highest. That would make him 8 8 0 0
and Baffert is his trainer, those two things alone will take a lot of money

[pucknut]

Originally Posted by senator L

I think the favorite will be well under 5-1. More like 2-1.
The (2) biggest fav's will be American Pharaoh and Dortmund
depending on their last race of course. Horses between 4-1 and 9-1
will be Upstart, Materiality and Mubtaahi the rest will be dbl digits imo

hope you are right.
carpe diem on double digits= get some

[alysheba4]

would be SHOCKED if C.D. is more than 6-1.

[Indian Charlie]

I'm kind of surprised everyone thinks the favorite is going to be like 5/1.

It's very possible, especially if Pharoah takes to the track, that he goes off 2/1 or lower.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

would be SHOCKED if C.D. is more than 6-1.

I think he will be at best 6-1. I can see him at 10-1 or higher easily especially when AP romps this weekend