Belmont/Remington Sunday Sept. 28

[Kitan]

Great card at Remington and I like a lot of value...

Race 4:
#1 Shotgun Kowboy: Local winner with extreme ease. This is tougher but he'll get a great rail trip.
#5 Heart of Valor: 100k "other" Asmussen lost a bob in a key maiden race two back. Winner repeated in a stakes, beating #2. 15-1 ML is a ridiculous price.
#2 Nublado Bling: Closed well from a tough spot last time and should appreciate the extra furlong.
#7 American Sailor: Showed nothing when taking money on debut and then won wire to wire at a big price next out. Unknown on the surface and will be too low of a price for one whose true ability is unknown.
#3 won by 11 last time (in a weak event) but that's because one broke down and took out the horse that was going to finish second...

Race 5 is interesting. Favs could all hook up in a duel but the closers all look a cut below...

Race 6:
#3 Dancin' Lil: Not a turf horse and before that she was in the form of her life. Looks to get the run of the race.
#9 Brilliant Rescue: Rated beautifully last time and you can put a pen through that race as she was stuck behind a fading 45-1 shot resulting in her being shuffled back to last. This isn't an easy spot off a long layoff but Rosie/Asmussen at 5-1 ML is juicy.
#5 Itsallinthefamily: Two for two sprinting on a fast main track since the claim and has shown she can come from behind. Vital tactic in this speedy affair.
#8 American Sugar: Runs her best in dirt sprints on a dry track with a favourable pace scenario. Bomb will be coming late.
#4's three dirt wins have all come against LA-breds an although she has won at 7f and 7.5f(T) off the form I think she's a beatable fav...Just have a feeling that #7 will get run down...

Race 8:
#7 Tonito M.: Ran great on his NA debut and I feel like he's had justifiable reasons to have not run back to that in his subsequent races. Woody Stephens wasn't realistic, the top two in the Los Al Derby would crunch these, turf didn't work out, and last time against older they ran a blistering time. Although Roman Approval hasn't turned out to be much I think this is the most suitable race for this one and this outfit wouldn't ship if they didn't think they had a great chance. 8-1 ML is eye-opening.
#1 Away Game: Back to back wins against older over this 9f trip at the Spa. Ships in off a bullet work and will sit dangerously behind the leaders.
A few prices for the exotics...#6 has done his best running routing on the dirt. Question why Pletcher gave this expensive one away but if he runs back to that he can run a big one. #8 has completely turned it around with the barn upgrade. Needs a career best to win but blowing up the exotics isn't out of reach. #10 has a winning consistency that should give him a good shot at being there at the finish.
#5 Wildcat Red: If they decide to revert back to old tactics he might just get loose and not be caught. I still question his stamina and will try and beat him for the most part.
#9 Charge Now: Couldn't follow up with another big run in the Travers, and even though that was much tougher I'm wondering if his run two back flattered him. The Legend form line has been disappointing and he really didn't beat anything when chasing a tortoise in his other win. Vulnerable.
Connections of #4 won last year but this one isn't as good. #14 is better than his last but he's going to have to be much the best to win from out there.

Race 9:
#3 Haveyougoneaway: Three for four going long on the dirt, and she was quite the unhappy handful in her lone poor performance. Continues to light it up in the mornings and Loveberry sticks here.
#9 Swing It Dish: Took money in her route try and I don't think she was fully tuned that day. Love the mile breeze and I think we'll see her true routing abilities at a big price.
#5 America: Form isn't quite outstanding but this is much, much easier. I never like when horses do multiple ships (SAR-BEL-RP) and that's my big concern.
#4 Shanon Nicole: Looks the best on form but I'm extremely put off by the fact her last work was nearly 3 weeks ago.
#1 was nothing special against these when in the region for other connections. New outfit is dangerous (see above) but I feel she'll be overbet solely based on that...#2 is SCR...

Race 10:
#1 Coupled Entry: 1 should sit perfectly behind the duelers on the outside and the 1A is not too shabby himself.
#7 Alsvid: Has run well fresh before, has a great overall record, and he loves the course.
#6 Heitai: Rider comes in with a purpose but the speed of #8 might burn him out.
#2 Ghost Is Clear: Got going too late last time when giving weight and picks up Bejarano. Pace should suit but could get buried on the rail.

$1 Pick Four
Race 7: ALL (11)
Race 8: 7
Race 9: 3, 9
Race 10: 1, 2, 6, 7
$88

Belmont has a good card considering it's a big day hangover...going for bombs away here.

Race 2:
#6 Unauthorized: Walked home in debut but this is a better spot. Sis is an Oaks winner at the local bullring (HST) and he's working well for the stretchout.

Race 6:
#8 Sunnysider: Maiden winner on a one-turn mile at AQU. Check the sizzling works since the last. Adds Lasix. Live longshot.

Race 7:
#2 Ancient Goddess: Bet down in her NA debut but she wasn't ready for that. Much fitter and could be forgotten about on the tote.
#'s 1, 9, and 10 are uses but none really excite me.

Race 8:
#7 Petrocelli: Might be the speed of the speed but has also shown he can sit just behind if needed. Back to a more suitable surface and distance and has an encouraging work pattern. They'll have to run him down. The SCR of #9 makes it even more favourable for him.
#9 Goodtolook is a late SCR...
#6 Modern Child: Ignore the MTH trouble and his best fast track efforts have been around a single turn. Last wasn't that bad and he gets back in against NY-breds.
#5 Sioux was one I didn't originally like but with the SCR will get a better trip and I'll use him as a replacement.
#1 Precious Metal: Has a chance switching back to the dirt. Note that Rosario gets the call.
#3 seems better suited to two-turns...#10 didn't show much, albeit against tougher, returning from a bleed and although the bar shoe comes off I'm skeptical. Could be bombs galore in this one.

Race 9:
#8 Strong Coffee: Caught in traffic as the winner blew past and by the time he got fully clear the race was all over. Adds Lasix as he looks to bounce back.
#7 Nutty Futty: Got a handle of the circuit in his last and has since stayed up to train. Look for him to be closer up within striking distance and run credibly again.
#6 All I Karabout: Ran a quick time at Laurel and could get away with soft fractions.
#5 Offering Plan: Impressive debut winner but there wasn't much in that NY-bred event.
#2 Startup Nation has been eye-catching in his two runs but I can't see him getting similar favourable pace set-ups and I'll take a stand against.

Race 10:
#7 Domer: Clement debuts this one in a dirt sprint and that's exactly what he's bred for. Long string of works to prime him for the debut upset.
#1 Man of Mystery: Shuman FTS ships in with numerous bullet works. Rail has done extremely well...
#6 McQuaid: Violette has put a lot of work into this one to get him fit for his debut.
#5 Wildniteattheopera: No excuse not to win last time in a weak race. This may not be much better but there are more intriguing debutants.
#10 Readyheartandsoul: Ran huge back in June and will be bet off that but he's yet to run another race like that. His last was better on paper than in reality IMO and he's another fav today who I'll try and beat.

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 7: 1, 2, 9, 10
Race 8: 5, 6, 7
Race 9: 5, 6, 7, 8
Race 10: 1, 6, 7
$86.40

Good luck!

[CheekyBird]

Thanks for the analysis Kitan. Got a little of lipstick money to play with today, so perhaps I'll take a look at Remington 8 (OK Derby), while hubby is working on his fantasy football line up.

Good luck to you too!

[ADJMK]

Great call on Tomito M in the OK Derby. Partner him with the #6, Bogey's selection and you get a $450 exacta. Who says DT doesn't have the best handicappers ?

[Kitan]

Sometimes it's better to focus on a single race rather than try and hit the multis. Terrible for the most part but good thing for the OK Derby otherwise I would have been eating McDonald's tonight. Great triple of $730 for a buck alone made my day.