Daily Double Criss-Cross Strategies

[ScottJ]

Today's rolling double sequence in Races 6 and 7 provided a perfect example of a situation and question that I have had on 2x2 double criss-crosses for some time.

The winning double of Costenia ($3.60 win) and Sweetpollypurebred ($4.40) paid $7.30. Clearly, a straight 2x2 criss-cross would have yielded a negative net of seventy cents. Ultimately, was this a good bet? Obviously, you could say that this resulted in a loss, so it was bad, but I am looking to answer the question in terms of EXPECTED VALUE when the bet was placed.

So, here are the questions :

[1] Is this a reasonable play given the chance of catching a price with the non-favorites? (In other words, it provided return given the selections.)

[2] If one of these favorite winners (or both) was YOUR second choice in the race, should you have dropped the favorite in order to press one of the top selections or a higher price?

[3] Should you just drop these combinations from your criss-cross when you see that the return would be this low?

Obviously, the same questions apply for any horizontal wagers, but it is easiest to illustrate for doubles. On the one hand, eliminating these shorties is like just betting against the favorite in all situations - so looking for some alternative thinking.

Comments?

[knickslions2]

Scott I very seldom play 2x2 doubles. I usually play 2x1or 1x2. When I do play 2x2 its usually with non chalks. Pointman and JMS are the gurus on doubles so I'm sure they can weigh in