8/31: Saratoga (Day 38-Woodward, Forego)

[Kasept]

Any day that sees horse or rider imperiled is challenging, but Friday was made impossibly sad by the death of Saginaw. A very difficult atmosphere pervaded the track as the news spread, with the Drawing Away people and all that follow the special horse devastated. The anguish seemed especially pronounced given the widespread view of Saginaw as an indestructible entity, but of course none of them are indestructible no matter how indomitable they appear. Saginaw was a horse that demanded respect through his accomplishments, earned widespread love with his kindness towards handlers and admirers and our gratitude for his generosity as a racehorse.

Closing Saturday delivers another slate of terrific action top to bottom. Overnight thunderstorms may leave the main wet early on..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Motion Lounge 4th
Next Best: #11 Another Page 7th
Exotics Use: #4 John's Mariah 8th
Super Add: #12 Swift Taylor 6th


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

This event coming off turf turns into an even bigger guessing game..

Most Likely: #2b FINANCIAL MOGUL 4-1 WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #12 Mack Miller 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Patty and Nooche 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Ring Weekend 6-1 5th


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Repole-Pletcher don't Misconnect on 2yo's often, so outside Unbridled's Song grey obvious, but as we've discussed forever, Shug debuts at 7f with horses that he thinks can win immediately. Honor Code a half to Noble Tune and has worked smartly for bow..

Most Likely: #6 Honor Code 7-2 WON ($8.50)
Next Best: #8 Misconnect 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Bro Rodrigeaux 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Jackson and Lorimer 12-1 6th


4th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Most Happy Fella 2nd
Best Value: #4 Idle American 4th
Next Best: #1a North Ocean 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Box Office 5th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Commanding Curve 8-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Canadian Winner 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Village Warrior 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Grand Arrival 3-1 WON ($5.00)


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2
3: 3-4-6-8
4: 1-4-9-11-12
5: 2-4-5-8

1x4x5x4 = 80 x .50 = $40


6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Carla Sweetrevenge 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #12 Rock N Cozy 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Accomplish First 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Baal Perazim 20-1 5th


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Outstanding group with a number of possibilities. Pace going to be more than honest, so look for the stalker-closer that suits your needs..

Most Likely: #10 Dawly 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 So Raise Your Glass 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Justa Runner 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Tenango 9-2 WON ($8.20)


8th: 55th Bernard Baruch (G2), 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Silver Max 9-5 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #5 Tetradrachm 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Turallure 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 So Long George 8-1 5th


9th: 34th Forego (G1), 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Move of Fast Bullet to Lukas barn telegraphs a problem with notoriously ouchy 5yo, but entry still potent. Decision to start is pending on Saratoga Snacks SCRATCHED whose ongoing hoof problem has hindered him the last couple days..

Most Likely: #4 Sage Valley 7-2 5th
Next Best: #1e Zayat entry 1-1 3rd/6th
Best Value: #3 Jackson Bend 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Lea 12-1 4th


10th: 60th Woodward (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Even without Cross Traffic and Fort Larned, a compelling group. Mucho Macho Man a late SCR as the track condition gives Ritvo and Team Reeves pause..

Most Likely: #4 Flat Out 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Successful Dan 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Paynter 2-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Ron the Greek 8-1 4th


11th: CLM, 3+, 8.5-OFF THE TURF (DD)

Most Likely: #14 Romancing the Gold 7-2 WON ($8.10)
Best Value: #3 Kingofthebluegrass 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Bill of Rights 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Fizzano 6-1 3rd


12th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 6f

Wow.. Quite a scrambler to wrap up the day.

Most Likely: #10 Whiskey Romeo 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Taproot 12-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Chapman 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Stonely the Lonely 8-1 11th


<$50 P4 Play:

9: 1-4
10: 1-2-4-5-7
11: 14
12: 4-5-6-7-8-10

2x5x1x6 = 30 x $1.50 = $45


Good luck!
Steve