Early Breeders' Cup Projections...

....I know we are a month and a half out, but here are the best horses in each division at this point in my opinion...chime in with yours...lets have some fun:

Juvenile Fillies:

Dreaming of Anna

Juvenile:

Scat Daddy

Mile:

Librettist

Distaff:

Happy Ticket

F & M Turf:

Gorella

Sprint:

Henny Hughes

Turf:

Shirocco

Classic:

Bernardini



....Lets see how many I can jinx....lol

[blackthroatedwind]

Gorella is pointing for the Mile.

Also, as of now, Shirocco is pointing for the Classic.

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

I think Scat Daddy ran a better race in the hopefull than what it looked like he had to check got shuffeled back and still pass the horses he could see.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

JF - Point Ashley

Juv - Scat Daddy

Mile - Gorella

Distaff - Pine Island

Sprint - Bordonaro

Turf - Shirocco

FM Turf - The best Euro entered

Classic - Bernardini

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Gorella is pointing for the Mile.

Also, as of now, Shirocco is pointing for the Classic.

I know that...thanks for pointing that out...I'll still stick with the horses I think are the best of each division...much can happen between now and then....Shirocco would get DROWN in the Classic and I think Fabre will come to that realization because he is a rational person, and if the right players show up for the Mile, Gorella would have the best shot at winning the F&M Turf IMO because there is only one horse she'd have to beat in that race and it is a worn-out Ouija Board - instead of trying to beat the best male milers in the world...just my opinion....

..you forgot to list your division leaders...I hear about all of this stepping out and making bold statements but i don't see as much as I hear about it....

[blackthroatedwind]

Please, I have made more public bold predictions than anyone around here, and I have the Dunce Cap to prove it!

Making predictions concerning the 2YOs seems absurd at this point as there are still many important races to be run and fewer that have already been run. I do have to admit I was very impressed by what I saw from Nobiz Like Shobiz however.

I honestly don't pay a huge amount of attention to the BC, especially this early, so my " bold predictions " would be too close to " stabs " for my liking.

However, to be nice, I will take....Commentator in the Sprint, some Euro in the mile or Aragon ( is that his name? ), Hurricane Run in the Turf and Bernardini in the Classic. I already gave my Distaff thoughts and at this point I would prefer one of the 3YO fillies, Lady of Venice or Wait it Out, in the F&M Turf.

I will probably end up betting against them all

[Hwjb]

Shirocco would get DROWN in the Classic and I think Fabre will come to that realization because he is a rational person

ARCANGUES!

I imagine that Europe will send a weaker squad than usual. Whilst I would love to see Sander Camillo in the BCJF, as I believe she may be the best 2yo filly I've ever seen, I very much doubt she'll make the trip. We don't seem to have a standout juvenile colt, with Teofilo certain not to cross the Atlantic. It goes without saying that we've not got a sprinter within 10lbs of the US finest, although the one who possibly could make an impact, Iffraaj, I'd rather see in the Mile. That may mean taking on George Washington, however, and that may make for race of the day. I imagine Ouija Board would have every chance of regaining her BCFMT crown. I would look to oppose Hurricane Run in the Turf, but, as of yet, I'm not sure what with!

[King Glorious]

Sprint-Henny Hughes
Distaff-Island Fashion
Mile-Aragorn
Turf-Hurricane Run
F/M Turf-Ouija Board
Classic-Discreet Cat

[Sightseek]

The Pletcher/J.V horses will be over-respected, meanwhile a Pletcher/Gomez horse will go at longer odds and do much better (Octave?). (I swear TAP is using J.V. as a decoy to cash big on his other horses )

Juvenile Fillies - Kauai Calls

Juvenile - Tiz Wonderful

Mile - Aragorn

Distaff - Pine Island

F & M Turf - Alexandrova / Wait A While exacta

Sprint - Henny Hughes

Turf - Cacique (Hasili progeny further take claim upon the BC)

Classic - Bernardini

[Buffymommy]

Juvy Fillies: Dreaming of Anna

Juvy: Not sure of this one yet.

Mile: Gorella

FM Turf: Ouija Board

Sprint: Commentator

Distaff: Pine Island

Turf: Hmmm.... Not sure on this one either.

Classic: Drifty!!!!!!


JMO though.

[SniperSB23]

Isn't the FM Turf at 11 furlongs this year since Churchill can't run 10 on the turf? Why would they even consider running Gorella at 11 furlongs against Ouijia Board and Alexandrova? I could understand taking a shot at 10 but 11 would be insane. I'd love it if she went in the FM Turf cause apparently people would waste their money betting on her but I don't think there is a decision to make, she will go in the Mile.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Isn't the FM Turf at 11 furlongs this year since Churchill can't run 10 on the turf? Why would they even consider running Gorella at 11 furlongs against Ouijia Board and Alexandrova? I could understand taking a shot at 10 but 11 would be insane. I'd love it if she went in the FM Turf cause apparently people would waste their money betting on her but I don't think there is a decision to make, she will go in the Mile.

She would win either race she entered, but probably going to go in the mile. She should have won it last year, but a "not so great" ride cost her. But that is horse racing.

[Cajungator26]

Juvenile Fillies:
Dreaming of Anna

Juvenile:
Unbridled Express

Mile:
Aragorn

Distaff:
Happy Ticket

F & M Turf:
Alexandrova

Sprint:
Friendly Island

Turf:
English Channel

Classic:
Perfect Drift

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Isn't the FM Turf at 11 furlongs this year since Churchill can't run 10 on the turf? Why would they even consider running Gorella at 11 furlongs against Ouijia Board and Alexandrova? I could understand taking a shot at 10 but 11 would be insane. I'd love it if she went in the FM Turf cause apparently people would waste their money betting on her but I don't think there is a decision to make, she will go in the Mile.

Yep...its 11 panels, which I don't see as a concern...she is one of those throw-back turf horses who will trot around there and give you that wicked final 3/8 of a mile bursting turn of foot no matter if she is going a mile or 11 panels...I really believe after watching her Beverly D. that the extra ground won't hurt her...you're acting like there will be a HUGE difference between 10 and 11 furlongs and I just don't agree....

I'd rather take on my own generation than have to face the best boys Milers in the world...remember, last year was a WEAK year in the Mile with an American winning it...I even bet Artie - that is how weak it was because I never bet Americans in that race......it appears that Gorella will have to match strides with the likes of George Washington, Proclamation and Librettist this year and SHE WILL NOT like doing that if they choose to run her in the Mile.....IMO

[blackthroatedwind]

I'll trust Patrick's judgement. I think the added distance is a HUGE concern and to just assume that she will have that explosive kick regardless of the distance is a mistake.

The mile could be tougher, though I don't think the European contingency is considered all that tough this year ( let's see if George Washington can rebound to his pre-injury form ), but racing at the proper distance is FAR mre important than worrying about the possibly minor difference in field quality. Anyway, Ouiji Board could well be tougher than any Euro in the mile, and the same owner as Gorella has Lady of Venice.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Yep...its 11 panels, which I don't see as a concern...she is one of those throw-back turf horses who will trot around there and give you that wicked final 3/8 of a mile bursting turn of foot no matter if she is going a mile or 11 panels...I really believe after watching her Beverly D. that the extra ground won't hurt her...you're acting like there will be a HUGE difference between 10 and 11 furlongs and I just don't agree....

I'd rather take on my own generation than have to face the best boys Milers in the world...remember, last year was a WEAK year in the Mile with an American winning it...I even bet Artie - that is how weak it was because I never bet Americans in that race......it appears that Gorella will have to match strides with the likes of George Washington, Proclamation and Librettist this year and SHE WILL NOT like doing that if they choose to run her in the Mile.....IMO

If I thought she was fine at ten furlongs then the extra furlong wouldn't be a big deal. However, I think she is best at a mile, still very good at nine furlongs, and ten would be the limit for her. In that case the difference between ten and eleven furlongs does become huge.

I'll say this then...is they elect to run her in the Mile instead of the F&M Turf then she won't win a BC event...she won't beat all 3 Euros I mentioned earlier...

I really am a big fan of hers...I think she is a cool horse and she deserves a BC win...I just feel she'll have a better chance against her own kind...hell, Ouija Board couldn't even beat Intercontinental last year and she is a year older now and Alexandrova is a 3YO....easier competition than the 3 top male Euro Milers I would say.....

[blackthroatedwind]

A pretty strong argument could be made that Ouiji Board is better this year than last. And, as for not running Intercontinental down, a horse I loathe by the way, when an odd horse wires a field it usually makes the entire race suspect and the result is hardly indicative of the respective abilities of the field.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A pretty strong argument could be made that Ouiji Board is better this year than last. And, as for not running Intercontinental down, a horse I loathe by the way, when an odd horse wires a field it usually makes the entire race suspect and the result is hardly indicative of the respective abilities of the field.

I would still rather face Ouija Board and Alexandrova rather than Ifraaj, Librettist, Proclamation, Aragorn and George Washington....just saying....

[blackthroatedwind]

If it's the wrong distance it doesn't matter who she is facing. I can't believe you actually think Gorella rates to be even close to as good at 1 3/8 as she is at 1 1/8 miles. There is a WORLD of difference IMO.

Ad Valorum won one of Europe's big mile Group 1 races recently. Sorry if I'm not shaking in my boots about the milers coming from there. Look, I'm the first to just say " I'll take the Euros " for this race, but I don't think this year's contingent is looking very strong.