Fever spike knocks Alpha out of Belmont..

[Kasept]

Grening: Alpha out of Belmont due to temperature.

http://www.drf.com/news/2012-belmont...l-have-another

[MaTH716]

Alright, I just saved at least $50 dollars..............

[slotdirt]

Horse just can't stay healthy this spring it seems.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Alright, I just saved at least $50 dollars..............

Isn't that the truth. I was thinking Alpha had a chance here for some reason.

[Calzone Lord]

And in other Belmont Stakes news -- the connections of I'll Have Another have reached out to Woody Stephens via a Ouija Board to consult them.

They also have hired Ronnie Franklin and whoever the blacksmith was that shod the two Zito horses in the 2004 Kentucky Derby as consultants.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

And in other Belmont Stakes news -- the connections of I'll Have Another have reached out to Woody Stephens via a Ouija Board to consult them.

They also have hired Ronnie Franklin and whoever the blacksmith was that shod the two Zito horses in the 2004 Kentucky Derby as consultants.

Have they consulted with desormeaux?

[Calzone Lord]

They need to find out exactly what Velazquez wants to do on Union Rags and exactly what Paynter's jockey wants to do.

Everything else is nonsense and all the general opinions by anyone won't matter.

Assuming the track speed is playing close to par -- the cold hard facts are that you need to be close to the pace if the half is slower than 48 -- and relaxed patiently off of the pace if it is faster than 48.

Velazquez has two goals on Union Rags -- to get a clear outside trip and to race ride I'll Have Another. Not sure how aggressive he might be.

Not sure what the plan will be on Paynter.

[richard]

They'll be eatin a lot of dust the final furlong so they should wear their bandanas.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

They need to find out exactly what Velazquez wants to do on Union Rags and exactly what Paynter's jockey wants to do.

Everything else is nonsense and all the general opinions by anyone won't matter.

Assuming the track speed is playing close to par -- the cold hard facts are that you need to be close to the pace if the half is slower than 48 -- and relaxed patiently off of the pace if it is faster than 48.

Velazquez has two goals on Union Rags -- to get a clear outside trip and to race ride I'll Have Another. Not sure how aggressive he might be.

Not sure what the plan will be on Paynter.

That's interesting because I don't think that Gutierrez has had IHA inside of anyone in the first two legs of the TC. He's been the one outside and in the clear.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

That's interesting because I don't think that Gutierrez has had IHA inside of anyone in the first two legs of the TC. He's been the one outside and in the clear.

Alpha may be this year's Stay Thirsty (hates Churchill)

I think Paynter will try and steal it. Can he carry his speed 1 1/2 miles? Is it conceivable that IHA chases Paynter?

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Revidere

Alpha may be this year's Stay Thirsty (hates Churchill)

I think Paynter will try and steal it. Can he carry his speed 1 1/2 miles? Is it conceivable that IHA chases Paynter?

Gutierrez has put 2 picture perfect rides on IHA so far. Doug brings up a good point about someone race riding him.

As far as Paynter goes, I can't see him chasing him. I expect the same type of patient stalking ride. They chased down Bode twice, so I'm guessing that they aren't that concerned about Paynter stealing it on the lead.

[declansharbor]

http://www.drf.com/events/belmont-stakes

A very close call for IHA.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

That's interesting because I don't think that Gutierrez has had IHA inside of anyone in the first two legs of the TC. He's been the one outside and in the clear.

Ideally -- John Velazquez would like a repeat scenario of the 2007 Belmont.

He had Rags to Riches in the clear and widest -- right behind a 50.32 half mile. He had Curlin down inside of him having no choice but to wait behind that slow pace.

Meanwhile, Garret Gomez was strangling Hard Spun off of the lead. Hard Spun was 3rd early behind very slow fractions and he was pulling against Gomez -- the horse and rider almost in a wrestling match.

That's the best scenario for Union Rags.

It's hard for a lot horses to accelerate when they're caught inside behind slow paces. Especially on dirt. Curlin struggled doing it.

The slow pace would also ruin Dullahan's chances...and Paynter will not win if he's being wrangled back behind a slow pace.

If Paynter wants to be forward and try and steal this race -- it's probably going to be a truly run race and that sets up for Dullahan.

The ideal scenario for Dullahan is:

* Paynter wants to be forward and goes out.

* The pace is faster than 48 seconds

* John Velazquez gets Union Rags in the clear and turns up the pressure on I'll Have Another in the middle of the race.

* Union Rags -- a Champagne winner over the track has great miler potential -- and I'll Have Another is forced to move with him or else get shuffled back and lose position.

If this happens ... Dullahan will have a great opportunity to grind them all down with his plodding late run. Some other plodder will also surprise at long odds if this scenario plays out as well.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

They need to find out exactly what Velazquez wants to do on Union Rags and exactly what Paynter's jockey wants to do.

Everything else is nonsense and all the general opinions by anyone won't matter.

Assuming the track speed is playing close to par -- the cold hard facts are that you need to be close to the pace if the half is slower than 48 -- and relaxed patiently off of the pace if it is faster than 48.

Velazquez has two goals on Union Rags -- to get a clear outside trip and to race ride I'll Have Another. Not sure how aggressive he might be.

Not sure what the plan will be on Paynter.

Talked pace today and went through the 6f times. They're telling as well with 1:12.4 & up the dividing line for the on/near/stalk winners.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Talked pace today and went through the 6f times. They're telling as well with 1:12.4 & up the dividing line for the on/near/stalk winners.

Yep.

Tactics and pace are always extremely huge factors in determining outcomes.

The ideal scenario for I'll Have Another is simply that every horse goes out and is ridden to run its best race by jockeys who aren't trying to ride or force the hand of other horses.

If that happens, and I'll Have Another is healthy and holding form, he's simply not going to lose.

The only two riders in a position to take I'll Have Another out of his game are the jocks on Paynter and Union Rags. Those two jocks are the humans who have the most control in this race.

They will be acting and I'll Have Another's jockey must be able to do a fair job of judging the pace and react.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Velazquez has two goals on Union Rags -- to get a clear outside trip and to race ride I'll Have Another. Not sure how aggressive he might be.

I agree with your opinions on the pace scenario. But I disagree with the part about race riding IHA. Rags and Dullahan are definitely in it to win it, and should run their own race. But I could see Rags having the same stalking running style, so they should be pretty close all the way around.

Originally Posted by Revidere

Alpha may be this year's Stay Thirsty (hates Churchill)

I think Paynter will try and steal it. Can he carry his speed 1 1/2 miles? Is it conceivable that IHA chases Paynter?

Don't forget about Unstoppable U. He's gonna try and run with Paynter. Does this mean the pace gets hotter than normal, or can those 2 settle on something less than blazing? It's probably been brought up before, but the cruel irony might be that Paynter could be the one to spoil this just because of the connections being the same as Bodemeister's lol.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

I agree with your opinions on the pace scenario. But I disagree with the part about race riding IHA. Rags and Dullahan are definitely in it to win it, and should run their own race. But I could see Rags having the same stalking running style, so they should be pretty close all the way around.

I'll Have Another has a bulls-eye on his back. Absolutely they're going to try and race ride him.

If they can keep him inside, they will.

You really think everyone is just going to be oblivious to the fact that he's in the race?

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'll Have Another has a bulls-eye on his back. Absolutely they're going to try and race ride him.

If they can keep him inside, they will.

You really think everyone is just going to be oblivious to the fact that he's in the race?

What I'm saying is, I think this is different than what Jerry Bailey did with Eddington in the Smarty Jones Belmont. Bailey knew Eddington had no shot so he rode him into the ground to rabbit Smarty. A few may try to do that to IHA. I get that.

I just don't think it will be Union Rags.

[slotdirt]

I was never a massive Eddington fan, but to say he had "no shot" in the 2004 Belmont is a little over the top. By that logic, neither did Rock Hard Ten? Eddington was a millionaire GI winner for God's sake.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

What I'm saying is, I think this is different than what Jerry Bailey did with Eddington in the Smarty Jones Belmont. Bailey knew Eddington had no shot so he rode him into the ground to rabbit Smarty. A few may try to do that to IHA. I get that.

I just don't think it will be Union Rags.

Bailey -- a good judge of pace -- tried briefly to hustle Eddington early into a soft pace to prevent Smarty Jones with getting away with murder.

The real idiotic ride in that race came from Rock Hard Ten's jockey. He forced Smarty Jones hand through absolutely sizzling middle fractions.

Rock Hard Ten finished 5th beaten a dozen lengths -- but he unquestionably cost Smarty Jones that race.

Eddington never did anything to even remotely bother Smarty Jones. In fact, I still can't figure out why people find fault with his ride.