KY Derby field taking shape

[justindew]

Mucho Macho Man, Decisive Moment, Pants on Fire, Animal Kingdom, and probably a horse or two from the Sunland Derby are heading to the Kentucky Derby off of a six week layoff. Have we ever seen a Derby with as many as 6, or even 4 entrants coming in with such layoffs?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Sunland Derby winner was in for a maiden claiming tag earlier this meet at Santa Anita - after six failed MSW attempts prior.

Unless Borel gets named to ride - this horse will most likely go off as the longest shot on the board in the Derby ... which will probably be less than 100/1 if very recent history is any indication.

At least GBBob can take comfort in knowing that - while his good starter alw Philly Park 3yo is as good as just about everything that ran in that 800K giveaway sweepstakes - he probably wouldn't have won because he's a tactical speed horse and the pace was fast early - and crawl late.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The Sunland Derby winner was in for a maiden claiming tag earlier this meet at Santa Anita - after six failed MSW attempts prior.

Unless Borel gets named to ride - this horse will most likely go off as the longest shot on the board in the Derby ... which will probably be less than 100/1 if very recent history is any indication.

At least GBBob can take comfort in knowing that - while his good starter alw Philly Park 3yo is as good as just about everything that ran in that 800K giveaway sweepstakes - he probably wouldn't have won because he's a tactical speed horse and the pace was fast early - and crawl late.

Well under 100-1. Backtalk was 20-1 last year. I think the days of 50-1 and up might be gone for a little while at least.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

Well under 100-1. Backtalk was 20-1 last year. I think the days of 50-1 and up might be gone for a little while at least.

There is 20 uncoupled entires and what a 16% takeout? A few will be over 50/1 obviously.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There is 20 uncoupled entires and what a 16% takeout? A few will be over 50/1 obviously.

20 horses last year too, and the longest shot was 31-1.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Thanks to Eskendraya's late defection.

Last year was IMPOSSIBLY wide open.

[tjfla]

3 races this weekend and 4 Tosses!! Ill take it

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by tjfla

3 races this weekend and 4 Tosses!! Ill take it

Both the top 2 Finishers of the Spiral Stakes are heading to the Derby and have enough graded earnings.

From the Louisiana Derby, Pants on Fire is headed there and the second place finisher Nehro now has $200K in graded stakes earnings. I have not heard anything on Nehro's plans but he is owned by Zayat Stables (who also has Jaycito but can aggressively place their horses). I would think Nehro would get another prep in.

If Twice the Appeal and Astrology head there from the Sunland Park Derby (Astrology now has enough graded earnings), that could put 6 high-odds horses in from this weekend's races.

It is highly doubtful that this year's Derby will be as nearly wide open betting wise as last year.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Thanks to Eskendraya's late defection.

Last year was IMPOSSIBLY wide open.

I don't think it matters, as much. Make Music For Me was the longshot on the board to win...but played ridiculously longer in other bets. The trifecta returned just over $1000 but the superfecta paid 100 times as much with MM4M in there. The win odds in the Derby are a joke for the most part. If Uncle Mo goes in undefeated, then maybe it does change, but if he is beaten, we could be back to more of the same.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

If Uncle Mo goes in undefeated, then maybe it does change, but if he is beaten, we could be back to more of the same.

There will be at least two horses who go off at 50/1 or more this year.

Among last years group - every single horse in the race looked like a terrible and hopeless chance on paper coming in. Even people who try to bet the race seriously were lost.

Even without Uncle Mo - it's still 95% you won't have a Derby where very little if anything seperates the favorites from the 12th choice in the betting.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There will be at least two horses who go off at 50/1 or more this year.

Among last years group - every single horse in the race looked like a terrible and hopeless chance on paper coming in. Even people who try to bet the race seriously were lost.

Even without Uncle Mo - it's still 95% you won't have a Derby where very little if anything seperates the favorites from the 12th choice in the betting.

The people betting Backtalk last year were not the same people who would have bet Eskendraya.

[justindew]

The reason Mine That Bird was 50-1 instead of 150-1 was because of Giacomo. And the reason Backtalk was 20-1 instead of 120-1 was because of Mine That Bird.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There will be at least two horses who go off at 50/1 or more this year.

Among last years group - every single horse in the race looked like a terrible and hopeless chance on paper coming in. Even people who try to bet the race seriously were lost.

Even without Uncle Mo - it's still 95% you won't have a Derby where very little if anything seperates the favorites from the 12th choice in the betting.

its fun to talk about and all.......but how do you bet this race seriously?????have you seen the recent winners? this is everyones first mistake ...thinking this is a good betting race......it will be the worst that day(unless you get lucky and see something different or just plain get lucky), considering the undercard. the derby is about beating the fave (because the fave almost loses every time) and getting lucky. the best horse USUALLY has to be lucky just not to get hammered by other horses....what derby do people watch to assume the best horse wins????????? thats a rarity...every year i hear the same story...people have "annual" memory loss....take that, uncle mo we are giving you the 1 or 2 hole with the freak out horse next door....take that. at 9-5.........."oh, the chalk just got sawed off on the backstretch".....every dog has his day and thats the type of race it is........

[Thunder Gulch]

I think its a good betting race, but you have to spread it around. You can get good horses at big prices, and the exotics are crazy.

While the best doesn't always win, I think LAL was last year, it's not rare for the best to win. Look back at the past decade and tell me how many of the winners were total flukes. Nobody saw Mine That Bird coming, but he was the best colt in the Triple Crown.

Super Saver- not the best, but made sense on the track

Mine That Bird- nobody saw it, but somewhat validated his effort in the series. Bad Crop

Big Brown- clearly the best

Street Sense- deep year and he was the best.

Barbaro- best in the race

Giacomo- Alex was better, but Giacomo ran decently through the series

Smarty Jones- clearly the best

Funny Cide- tossup, maybe Empire Maker

War Emblem- nobody else stepped up

Monarchos- Point Given better, but burned out that day

Fusaichi Pegasus- clearly the best

[pointman]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

its fun to talk about and all.......but how do you bet this race seriously?????have you seen the recent winners? this is everyones first mistake ...thinking this is a good betting race......it will be the worst that day(unless you get lucky and see something different or just plain get lucky), considering the undercard. the derby is about beating the fave (because the fave almost loses every time) and getting lucky. the best horse USUALLY has to be lucky just not to get hammered by other horses....what derby do people watch to assume the best horse wins????????? thats a rarity...every year i hear the same story...people have "annual" memory loss....take that, uncle mo we are giving you the 1 or 2 hole with the freak out horse next door....take that. at 9-5.........."oh, the chalk just got sawed off on the backstretch".....every dog has his day and thats the type of race it is........

I can't agree with this assessment at all. The Derby is usually one of the best betting races of the year. Any race with 20 betting interests is bound to create overlays, generally the number of betting interests alone makes it a solid race to bet in. Further, there is no race with more stupid money bet into the pool, including tons of money dumped on horses with no chance to win by the clueless for sentimental reasons.

Even if there is a heavy favorite that is likely to win, as there clearly is at this point this year, that doesn't mean that specific pools can't be profitably attacked, such as exactas, tris and supers. Also, the claim that it is a rarity that the best horse wins is completely wrong, more often than not the best horse wins, traffic, post or whatnot. The 20 hole didn't seem to deter Big Brown from clearly showing he was the best horse. It is all about assessing a proper plan of attack to get value whether horzontally or vertically and properly singling or spreading depending on the likelihood of the favorite winning.

Taking shape like exercising? If so, this race is full of lard as.ses. Richard Simmons is attending.