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#1
03-20-2011, 06:50 AM
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Derby Chances
Winning:
Uncle Mo (25.00%) The Factor (9.00%) To Honor And Serve (7.5%) Soldat (7%) Premier Pegasus (7%) Dialed In (6.25%) Silver Medallion (4%) Mucho Macho Man (3.50%) Machen (3.50%) Jaycito (3%) Elite Alex (2.75%) Flashpoint (2.25%) Stay Thirsty (2%) Santiva (2%) Comma to the Top (1.5%) Archarcharch (1.25%) Mr. Commons (1.25%) Gourmet Dinner (1%) Astrology (0.84%) Anthony's Cross (0.50%) Toby's Corner (0.50%) Sway Away (0.50%) JJ's Lucky Train (0.33%) Bretheren (0.33%) The Rest: (7.25%) The 10 most likely to finish either 3rd or 4th: #1. Dialed In (looks like countless horses who landed in the exotics but failed to win. Looks like no horses who've actually won) #2. Premier Pegasus (loves a fast pace - can rate without the blinkers - might be just not quite good enough at 10fs...but sure seems likely to fire) #3 Jaycito (ran faster early on than ever before last out with no blinkers - getting the blinkers and getting to relax might move him up enough to make him this years Jazil, Make Music For Me, or I'mawildandcrazyguy) #4 Mucho Macho Man (big grinding horse with a long stride. He relaxed very well with no blinkers. Simply doesn't appear good enough to win) #5 Stay Thirsty (Dominguez is the type of rider capable of getting that ground saving well timed trip - one that might be able to propel him into a 4th place finish) #6 Uncle Mo (If he's caught 4 wide on the turns - chasing a fast pace - a trip Velazquez would probably be fine with - he could be a Congaree or Indian Charlie type 3rd) #7 Santiva (is going to have the Graded earnings to get in. Is a grinding slug who might clunk up with a trip) #8 To Honor And Serve (I think he's most likely to be 4th choice in the betting come Derby day - anyway) #9 Elite Alex (He still needs the Graded earnings. He comes running late and will most likely have Borel - perhaps another Denis of Cork in the making) #10 Archarcharch (will like rating behind a fast pace. Infinitely more likely to come in 3rd or 4th than The Factor) 
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#2
03-20-2011, 07:02 AM
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Nice Doug..
Is The Factor going to shape up into this the way Sidney's Candy did last year?
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#3
03-20-2011, 07:27 AM
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Quote:
I think a horse you compare The Factor with is like a Lion Heart or maybe even Silver Charm type if you want to be kind. Lion Heart and Silver Charm both worked extremely strong at a 2yo sale. Silver Charm was also a Baffert and also from a low-profile 2yo sale (OBS April) Both had brilliant early speed and were brilliant young horses. Silver Charm ultimately could rate - a lot of people didn't think he could going into the Derby or he would have been a clear-cut favorite. Lion Heart is very close to The Factor in every way ... but the difference is that he was ouchy going into the Derby. He was 2nd in preps to Imperalisim and The Cliff's Edge looking like a horse with issues. Biancone might have emptied the cabinet on Lion Heart for the Derby. Each horse is its own entity ... but The Factor feels kind of like a healtier Lion Heart more than any type of horse I can think of off the top of my head. The comparison to Silver Charm is more obvious. The main thing about The Factor is that he at least proved the comparison to a Conveyance to be a bad one. Conveyance gave up a lot of late ground to bums like Cardiff Giant and Dublin was running over the top of him at Oaklawn. The Factor basically finished his final 1/16th slightly faster than Harve De Grace and was going about as fast late as Blind Luck. He also ran plenty faster early on than those two horses.
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#5
03-20-2011, 08:04 AM
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#6
03-20-2011, 08:06 AM
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Good comparison with Lion Heart. I was suggesting Sidney's Candy in terms of ability to attend pace successfully without rancor. I completely agree about the finish. I got the feeling that once they reached about midstretch, he realized he was being asked to go further and re-engaged. Thought he finished better than many are giving him credit for and galloped out the extra 110 yards energetically. Was looking at Miswaki's broodmare sire production, and there's plenty of reasons to take a positive view of his staying ability. And I imagine that with another start and some a.m. work, he can get kinder. I think those already anticipating him as a runoff are going to be surprised.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
03-20-2011, 08:08 AM
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#8
03-20-2011, 08:11 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
03-20-2011, 08:39 AM
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At first - it just looked like everyone else was tiring late from chasing a much faster horse ... but he was really earning at least a little bit of that late seperation....  in almost no time ... became ... 
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