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#1
03-12-2011, 05:45 AM
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3/12: Gulfstream (7-11); Tampa Bay (9-12); Oaklawn (7-10); Santa Anita (5-10)
Was inexcusably sloppy putting Friday plays together before 12p showtime, costing every chance to cash significantly in the highly bettable Santa Anita carryover sequence. P6 paid supremely nice $100k to three winners, and the review of the skein that Rick Hammerle and I undertook on ATR pointed you in the right direction in every leg. For my tickey, omission of Puype -- twice -- was the difference between something good, something special and the nothing received. Firster Shezabigbroad was bet like she couldn't lose in the 5th, and then ran like it, and though I used her in the P4 going three wide, I went just 2 deep on the sextet and felt foolish watching her romp home at even money. Perennial hanger Stoneside came through as advertised on the stretchout in the 6th, and El Martillo was indeed the right other horse with Uh Oh Bango in the feature. But the nightcap cost the conso ($600+) and the P4 as one of the very possible winners, Puype's Line One, hit us like a sucker punch. Did catch a couple P3's and broke even on the FG P4 earlier in the afternoon, but the day felt like a gigantic opportunity missed. Hope you did OK. There's countless spots this Saturday to make a pile! Should be a very good raceday...
GULFSTREAM POST-SCRATCHES 7th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super) Deep and potentially productive MSW to start the P5, with several notable pedigrees involved. Albertrani FTS #7 Bayamo is yet another Bernardini, this one out of Known Fact mare Banshee Winds which makes him a half brother of the wonderful Banshee Breeze. Smilin' Phil Serpe brings Police Chatter back for a first time 3yo/second career start, 8 months after this brother of Tout Charmant and Forest Grove found Boys at Toscanova in his 5f debut at Belmont. 5-2 favorite Ninja Blade, a Windmill Manor homebred half brother of stake stalwart My Jen, has managed to run into Dialed In, Travelin Man and Arch Traveler in his three career tries.. Most Likely: #3 Ninja Blade 5-2 2nd Best Value: #9 Police Chatter 8-1 3rd Next Best: #12 Redeemed 6-1 WON ($14.80) Super Add: #6 Ripples n' Waves 10-1 5th 8th: 1st Timely Writer, 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Certainly no drama involved with 3yo season debut of juvy Champion Uncle Mo, as Team Todd choose to utilize one turm mile as first step toward Louisville. Anything less than an authoritative, geared down romp will likely be viewed askance.. Most Likely: #1 Uncle Mo 3-5 WON ($2.10) Best Value: #6 Rattlesnake Bridge 5-1 2nd Next Best: #4 Rocking Out 4-1 4th 9th: 25th Palm Beach (G3), 3yo, 9f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super) Solid, well matched set of sophs for this. Pluck will SCR for the 1m spot at TAM today (7th).. Most Likely: #5 Queen'splatekitten 6-1 2nd Best Value: #6 Newsdad 10-1 3rd Next Best: #9 Master Dunker 6-1 6th Super Add: #10 Rafe 15-1 8th 10th: 67th Gulfstream Park H. (G2), 4+, 1m (DD, Super) This is an exceptionally good group and flies in the face of the braying naysayers and nattering nabobs that yearn for the alleged good ol' days when there were 14 Champions lined up in every handicap division race ever run.. Best Value: #4 Duke of Mischief 6-1 4th Next Best: #1 Rule 3-1 6th Exotics Use: #7 Soaring Empire 5-2 2nd Super Add: #5 Jackson Bend 8-1 5th 11th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f-Outer Turf (Super) Most Likely: #2 Green's Hard Ten 7-2 WON ($5.20) Best Value: #3 Miss Kitten 5-1 11th Next Best: #5 Zeffee 6-1 5th Super Add: #8 Fly Bye Wildcat 8-1 6th <$50 P5 Play: 7: 3-9-12 8: 1 9: 5-6-9 10: 1-4-5-6-7 11: 2-3 3x1x3x5x2 = 90 x .50 = $45 <$75 P4 Play: 8: 1 9: 2-4-5-6-7-9 10: 1-3-4-5-6-7 11: 2-3-5-8 1x6x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 TAMPA BAY DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 9th: 13th Hillsborough (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, DD, Super) Best Value: #7 Cherokee Queen 5-1 4th Next Best: #5 Zagora 5-2 2nd Exotics Use: #3 Keertana 7-2 3rd Super Add: #9 Askbut I Won'ttell 4-1 5th 10th: Suncoast, 3yo-F, 1m-40y (P3, DD, Super) Three fillies involved here are on the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager -- Miss Smarty Pants (50-1), Royal Delta (20-1, Wyomia (50-1) -- and above and beyond them, missies like Niji's Grand Girl, Third Chance, Her Smile and Devilish Lady have run races that make them competitive in this spot. Trickier-than-it-looks event.. Most Likely: #8 Royal Delta 7-2 9th Best Value: #4 Wyomia 8-1 WON ($15.20) Next Best: #1 Miss Smarty Pants 4-1 6th Super Add: #5 Blue Eyed Sweetie 12-1 8th 11th: 31st Tampa Bay Derby (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super) Thanks in part to the self-important machinations over Uncle Mo's 3yo debut, we are left with a less than vintage edition of this race which has seen a surge in its' importance over the past several years. Bretheren comes back off his Sam Davis score, and if the Super Saver sib exhibits the same '2nd off the break' prowess Pletcher sophs have flashed in recent winters, he should dust this cast of empty resume Derby Trail auditioning types.. Most Likely: #10 Bretheren 1-1: Outside draw a non-issue; His to lose.. 3rd Next Best: #7 Free Entry 7-2: Solid as 3yo; Tries two turns.. 6th Best Value: #3 Beamer 10-1: Still owns upside; Ran sneaky 4th in Davis.. 4th Super Add: #5 Too Experience 8-1: Just one bad race in career; Took to TAM.. 7th 12th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-T (Super, Super Hi-5) Would love to come up with something clever here, but just think you have to play it straight with the obvious players.. Most Likely: #4 Marcello 3-1 2nd Best Value: #9 On Joline 8-1 9th Next Best: #8 Al Nasr Dream 7-2 WON ($7.20) Super Add: #7 Stanley G. 8-1 8th Hi-5 Play: #5 Dr Rico 6-1 3rd <$50 P4 Play: 9: 3-5-7-8-9 10: 1-4-5-8 11: 10 12: 4-5-7-8-9 5x4x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50 OAKLAWN PARK POST-SCRATCHES 7th: 24th Honeybee (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, Super) Similarly to the Suncoast at TAM, five of these 9 are in the "KOFW". As good a race as the San Felipe is for the Derby boys, this filly prep event is the day's top test for lily seekers, and has any number of story lines.. Most Likely: #3 Joyful Victory 4-1 WON ($5.00) Best Value: #4 Holy Heavens 10-1 2nd Next Best: #2 Rigoletta 5-2 5th Exotics Use: #5 Dixie City 7-2 3rd 8th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P3) Most Likely: #5 Shertzer 9-2 5th Next Best: #9 Zoebear 2-1 2nd Best Value: #1 Duca 5-1 WON ($9.20) Exotics Use: #10 Admiral Rocket 6-1 3rd 9th:52nd Razorback (G3), 4+, 8.5f (DD, Super) Best Value: #5 It Happened Again 5-1 WON ($9.40) Next Best: #2 Win Willy 2-1 3rd Exotics Use: #7 Winslow Homer 9-5 6th Super Add: #6 Thiskyhasnolimit 5-1 2nd 10th CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (Super): Most Likely: #2 Dirty Cerday 9-2 WON ($) Best Value: #10 Moneyonthegrass 6-1 5th Next Best: #12 Muhaaseb 5-2 2nd Super Add: #3 Garcia's Letter 12-1 7th <$75 P4 Play: 7: 3-4 8: 1-5-9 9: 2-5-7 10: 2-3-10-12 2x3x3x4 = $72 $1 P4 (3/7/9-1-5-2) Paid $274.20 SANTA ANITA POST-SCRATCHES Another fun card at Santa Anita, which as Rick Hammerle has noted in recent weeks, has found its' stride in the second half of the stand. As discussed above, the Friday carryover sequence was challenging and rewarding for those that got through it, and today's sextet, in addition to the two stakes, is just as strong and harrowing.. 5th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super) Beyond those that have been out on track already, a few well-bred firsters to seriously consider including #8 Just Meteor (Mandella, 9-2), #7 Dancing Joy (Powell, 6-1) and Kirkorian/Shirreffs' son of the great Starrer (#3 Guest Star).. Most Likely: #10 Photo Shopped 7-2 6th Best Value: #4 First Blue Angel 12-1 7th Exotics Use: #6 Cloud Man 8-1 WON ($29.00) Super Add: #9 Eric the Ram 5-1 5th 6th: 74th Santa Margarita H. (G1), F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD, Super) Looks once again like Always a Princess will try to parlay pace and form edge into third straight stake score. Even money Switch has proven versatile though, and her sprinter's gear will come in handy if Rosario wants to engage Garcia early. And in a case of musical pilots, note that Bejarano acquires the square priced Vision in Gold, who rallied and wired winning her last pair. With the added presence of St. Trinians, there is very little value to be built into your exotics plays, unless you try to fit plausable 'first dirt' underneath candidate Hemera (15-1) onto ducats.. Most Likely: #4 Switch 1-1 2nd Next Best: #2 Always a Princess 3-1 DNF Best Value: #7 Hemera 15-1 5th Super Add: #5 Vision in Gold 5-1 3rd 7th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Bella Roja 7-2 5th Best Value: #4 Higher Incentive 15-1 4th -Next Best: #2 Rule the Storm 4-1 WON ($9.00) Super Add: #6 Manhattan Beach 5-1 8th 8th: 74th San Felipe (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super) Amazing how West Coast 3yo picture went from bereft of talent to intriguing in a matter of 3-4 weeks. Stake placements by Jakesam, Surrey Star and Premier Pegasus, emergence of Albergatti, Runflatout and Bench Points, and returns of Jaycito and Awesome Patriot, make this edition of the traditional Santa Anita Derby prep completely fascinating.. Most Likely: #2 Runflatout 4-1: Sadler masterful stretching 'em out.. 10th Best Value: #1 Albergatti 6-1: Gomez sticks with pedigreed player.. 9th Next Best: #9 Jaycito 7-2: First time Baffert & Garcia on; Working sharp.. 2nd Super Add: #4 Awesome Patriot 12-1: Improved in dirt bow; Price is right.. 6th 9th: OC/N3X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Catchy Tune 7-2 2nd Best Value: #6 Gripsholm Castle 8-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Andina 4-1 WON ($6.20) Super Add: #4 Prytania 6-1 8th 10th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5) Most Likely: #9 Gallatin's Run 9-5 WON ($3.80) Best Value: #5 Scored 8-1 2nd Next Best: #8 Lichtenstein 3-1 4th Exotics Use: #11 Sweepemup 7-2 - Hi-5 Play: #10 Jolly Ollie 15-1 - <$75 P4 Play: 7: 2-4-5-6 8: 1-2-9 9: 2-6-9 10: 5-9 4x3x3x2 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 03-12-2011 at 07:25 PM. 
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#2
03-12-2011, 07:32 AM
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#3
03-12-2011, 10:03 AM
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But keep hope alive. It's all about the pretty horsies.
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#4
03-12-2011, 10:09 AM
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Can't argue about the Timely Writer placement, as Gulfstream shouldn't have made it part of the P4 sequence. They could have easily used the 2nd or 4th in that slot instead. My point is that the GP Handicap is a terrific race under any evaluation and bodes well for the season in the division.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
03-12-2011, 10:12 AM
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How difficult would it be for GP to put the Timely Pletcher Workout Mentally Handicapped race last and make the race before the last leg of the pick 5 and 4? That Austrian must be a complete nightmare to work for. Is there anyone in his circle of advisers that has any common sense and balls?
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#7
03-12-2011, 10:16 AM
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BOL today!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#8
03-12-2011, 10:18 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
03-12-2011, 10:22 AM
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IF ADVANCE BETTING.... With all the stakes today, because horses can SCR at will out of stakes, be sure to check back at whatever venue you're playing as there could be changes into the early afternoon.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 03-12-2011 at 10:33 AM.
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#10
03-12-2011, 10:37 AM
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#12
03-12-2011, 11:20 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#13
03-12-2011, 11:32 AM
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Steve,
In the Gulf P4, in race 9, you have the #10 Rafe as fourth choice, but go 6 deep and omit him, did you intend to leave off? Looks like a great day of racing. Thanks as always for your time and insights, and best of luck. Here's to a monster day!!
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#14
03-12-2011, 11:36 AM
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Thx... In this instance, I did intend to leave him off. I think he's worth using underneath only in-race to boost tris/supers, and prefered to cover some others as win candidates for the multis (whom I'm against otherwise). Going to be a fun day and evening! BOL!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#15
03-12-2011, 12:44 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#16
03-12-2011, 03:21 PM
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Fooling around with General Consensus, a healthy overlay at 17-1 and climbing, in this Hillsborough at TAM..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#17
03-12-2011, 04:39 PM
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Best. TB Derby. EVER!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#19
03-12-2011, 04:56 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#20
03-12-2011, 05:02 PM
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As to the other point, yeah, this bunch wasn't strong. But it seems like there is always some former claimer or a horse who just finished 10th hitting the board in TBD's 3-year-old stakes.
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