Noble Stella tommorow?

hockey2315 · #1 06-23-2006, 05:10 PM

If the 8th at Belmont gets taken off the turf tommorow, I like Noble Stella. With a wet track I think she'll be able to stretch out her lead and not get passed at the end. Haven't even looked at the form yet but after hitting the exacta in the 7th at Churchill today (keyed the 7) I'm looking to put a large win bet on a horse tommorow. Any takes on that race (oracle or kasept)?

Gander · #2 06-23-2006, 06:01 PM

I bet Noble Stella to win last time at 14/1 and she ran very good in defeat to Honey Ryder. Stupid me had not a dime on her to place, nor did I catch the exacta.

In my opinion she has a much, much better chance to win on the turf. If it gets rained out, Smart n Classy will probably take it.

Tomorrow's Belmont card is awful, but if you want a good bet, look at the 5th race and Lively Up Yourself. The Lostrito charge should find this a more comfortable spot and wire these gerbils.

Downthestretch55 · #3 06-23-2006, 06:17 PM

Hockey,
I agree with Gander, poor card. Lots of gerbils running.
The only race that appeals to me is the 8th, NY breeders cup.
Your pick is pretty good (NS), but I think K M's #6 Dynomite Lass will show something. I might ex box them.
DTS

Gander · #4 06-23-2006, 06:45 PM

That card tomorrow is an utter mess and is probably only going to get worse with the expected 1-2 inches of rain scheduled to follow in the metro NY area tomorrow. The only people playing tomorrow will be the hardcores who need the juice. Terrible races.

blackthroatedwind · #5 06-23-2006, 06:51 PM

Forgetting the possible rain and assuming for the time being that the race is on the turf....I just don't understand why anyone likes Noble Stella. OK, granted she was second to Honey Ryder, who isn't running, but she is coming off not one, but two, excedingly slow paces and she doesn't figure to get one tomorrow. I would say Charmsil ensures that Noble Stella won't be loafing on the lead. I also believe Argentina ( who is a complete fraud ) may be close as well as possibly Dynamite Lass.

It just appears to be a completely different race dynamic than the Sheepshead bay and one that works completely against Noble Stella.

Gander · #6 06-23-2006, 06:54 PM

She isnt my top selection on the turf by any means. I just think her chances increase if it stays on. No shot on the dirt in my opinion.

I agree with everything you said, she isnt going to make an easy lead, in fact she may not even be on the lead at all. She ran her race last time at 14/1 and even that wasnt good enough.

blackthroatedwind · #7 06-23-2006, 06:55 PM

Yes, last time was the time ( not that I liked her ), and tomorrow is for the guppies.

Pedigree Ann · #8 06-23-2006, 09:01 PM

Dynamite Lass won't be on the pace - that one race where she led all the way had another very slow pace. This year she has been more effective closing from midpack.

Actually, Noble Stella's best races last year were when she didn't have to set a pokey pace but was able to come from midpack. She is one-paced and that lands her on the lead if nobody wants the lead but behind when there is someone faster in the race.

Downthestretch55 · #9 06-23-2006, 09:06 PM

Agree P Anne, the last furlong is where it will be decided.
And, I'll stick with DL here.
We'll see.

blackthroatedwind · #10 06-23-2006, 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Dynamite Lass won't be on the pace - that one race where she led all the way had another very slow pace. This year she has been more effective closing from midpack.

Actually, Noble Stella's best races last year were when she didn't have to set a pokey pace but was able to come from midpack. She is one-paced and that lands her on the lead if nobody wants the lead but behind when there is someone faster in the race.

You're right, Noble Stella's best races last year were from behind. However, those races would not be good enough to contend with the likes of Angara and Asi Siempre. The simple fact is that the best race she ever ran was last time when she loafed on the lead. She is not going to be able to beat both of those horses tomorrow without a crawling lead.

I am also well aware that Dynamite Lass is not technically a speed horse. I understand full well the situation that led to her front running victory at Saratoga. However, when she defeated Noble Stella on March 4th, she was actually ahead of that rival through the first half mile ( prior to Bejarano losing contact with the field ), so should another paceless scenerio develop, it is hardly a stretch to suggest that Dynamite Lass COULD join, or even lead, Noble Stella on the front end.

I was hardly declaring either one of these horses as speed horses, but in a paceless race, having enough speed to dictate can obviously enhance one's chances. Being that every trainer, and even jockey, is aware of what happened in the Sheepshead Bay, just as Frankel and Prado were aware of English Channel's potential pace advantage in the Manhattan when they decided to send Cacique to the lead, it is highly unlikely a scenerio such as what happened in that race will occur once again. For that reason it does not appear likely that Noble Stella can win. And, as was pointed out earlier, she will be nowhere near the 14-1 she was previously, so it is hard to make a case that she is a good bet tomorrow.

Pedigree Ann · #11 06-24-2006, 08:18 AM

If the odds are your determining point, I cannot argue. Charmsil is the filly who has run consistently at 48 sec or so on the lead so it seems likeliest that she will get the lead without any effort, a couple of lengths clear maybe. That's why she looks a live longshot, since 10f is not beyond her scope.

Sorry if I seemed to be dismissive of your expertise.

JJP · #12 06-24-2006, 08:28 AM

Did it rain overnight in New York? I checked weather.com and it said it wasn't currently raining. I know one thing: weather forecasters are notorious for predicting rain too much.

#13 06-24-2006, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

That card tomorrow is an utter mess and is probably only going to get worse with the expected 1-2 inches of rain scheduled to follow in the metro NY area tomorrow. The only people playing tomorrow will be the hardcores who need the juice. Terrible races.

Or people that only get to bet on the weekends.

ceejay · #14 06-24-2006, 11:07 AM

Dynamite Lass also moves up on a soft track IMO. The Orchid was a key race with 4 stakes winners next out including Noble stella.

Gander · #15 06-24-2006, 03:55 PM

Yes, last time was the time ( not that I liked her ), and tomorrow is for the guppies.

I guess the guppies scored pretty well

blackthroatedwind · #16 06-24-2006, 03:58 PM

Well, the scratch of Charmsil certainly changed the race, but in that case I guess 9-2 was an OK price. Hey, I used three in the Pick-4, without that Frankel joke, and still didn't use Noble Stella. All things considered Angara ran pretty well. But, speed is an advantage.

When was the last time there was a distance turf stake that had any kind of pace at all? I think if Mott ran a rabbit Angara would have galloped.

Gander · #17 06-24-2006, 04:02 PM

That was like watching a harness race. Speed horse (Noble STella) comes off the turn and looks to be caught by either the fast closing Angara or the pocket rocket Dynamite Lass, yet hangs on when Angara teases the crap out of her faithful backers. Nice run by her and you are right, if Mott put a wabbit in there like Graham "The Rabbit Man" Motion, Angara would have won going away.

hockey2315 · #18 06-24-2006, 05:15 PM

As soon as Charmsil scratched the race was Stella's. That was an absolutely perfect ride for her. You can blame the pace for Stella winning, but the bottom line is that she did just that. Unfortunately, all I had on her was a double wheel that didn't pay great. . .