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#1
12-15-2009, 12:23 PM
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Tampa Bay Wednesday
Lets discuss some of these races....
I plan on playing the 4-6 and 8-10 pick 3's. Races 4,6 I am lost on. I would appreciate any opinions and I am willing to spread in them. Race 5 I am using 2 horses, I like the 1,6... The prices will be right on both of these and I feel the favorite is really no better then the 6. I am a huge Jeremy Rose fan but there is going to be no value and I will try to beat, especially with the outside draw. The 1's best works were far and away over the synthetics and the horse is bread for the turf, the trainer, even though its a small sample has good numbers first time turf. Still looking at 8-10, will get back later. 
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#2
12-15-2009, 12:34 PM
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I don't usually play Tampa and I'm not today, so I apologize for not having the insight you requested, but I have a serious question about your betting strategy.
If you are "lost" on race 4, don't have a single in race 5, and are "lost" again on race 6, why do you "plan on playing" that pick-3 at all? I'm not trying to bust your balls or anything, I'm actually just curious why you said you wanted to play that particular sequence if those were your thoughts on those races.
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#3
12-15-2009, 12:36 PM
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#5
12-15-2009, 12:41 PM
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#6
12-15-2009, 12:46 PM
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I'm not a big Tampa Bay man but here is my shot at 4 through 6
3,7,12 6,8 4,7,12 best of luck
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#7
12-15-2009, 12:48 PM
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Don't get me wrong, I love pick-3s, but in the scenario you described where two of the races in the sequence are giving you serious problems, and your strong opinion is in one particular race, I'm not sure playing a pick-3 is the smartest investment.
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#8
12-15-2009, 12:55 PM
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#9
12-15-2009, 01:01 PM
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#10
12-15-2009, 01:07 PM
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#11
12-15-2009, 01:13 PM
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yes i changed it ..didnt think they were on break yet..
the two horses im interested in at tampa are the 1 and the 6
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#12
12-15-2009, 01:30 PM
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#13
12-15-2009, 03:26 PM
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Race 4 is a typical weekday Tampa race - bad conditions, bad horses and none of them look like they want to win.
That said it looks like it may be a great betting race. I like the 10 Peacephilly in here. Darlene Dickau figured this one out and hands her back the Steven Dye for the meet. She is plenty quick enough for this bunch and the track seemed to be favoring speed Saturday. She should get out and get to the front with relative ease though may be pressed initially from the 9 and the 12, both whom don't appear quick enough to stay past the 1/2 pole with her. Holding that lead is the question but again who really wants to come after her? 1.02 work was sharp over the surface, again for this class of horse. And I like Hoosier shippers here. And anywhere near the 10-1 m/l will be sweet.
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#14
12-15-2009, 03:27 PM
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#15
12-15-2009, 03:30 PM
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the 1 is bred wonderfully for the turf and the trainer is capable to have it ready for this test. the 6 is a dropper who has showed some talent rock hard ten isnt the best turf sire in the world but this one may be good enough to get in the money
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#16
12-15-2009, 04:29 PM
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Rock Hard Ten has got a bunch of turf winners, I can think of at least 4 that I bet. Todd P had one the final race at Churchill fall meet at like 13-1, KMC had one at Belmont, Levine had one, who then came back to win a stakes. Hes going to be a GREAT TURF SIRE. As for the 4th, the more I look the more I think the 3 might be the one to beat, even though he did not handle dirt at all 3 back. The trainer has a big ROI on this move and it appears that a lot of the outside horses want to be on or near the lead.
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#17
12-15-2009, 05:17 PM
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tampa bay weds
the way i see it if turf is on race 1 1 mile and 1/16th claiming pp 5 invisable cove ml 10-1 w/p pp 3 no strings attached ml 5/2 pp 2 high chris ml 7/5 tri 5/3/2 box --------------------------------- race 2 6f mclm pp 7 thief ml 8-1 southern racing good outfit w/p pp 10 smoke dab ml 6-1 pp 2 stag runner ml 20-1 pp 9 saddlers cat ml 8-1 ext box 7/10/2 /9 ------------------------ race 3 6f claiming 5k pp 7 pennyroyal ml 5-1 pp 1 bea precise ml 15-1 pp 2 garbo and me ml 7/2 ext box 7/1/2 -------------------- race 4 6f claiming pp 7 bridge of gold ml 5-1 pp 12 barrington hills  pp 10 peace philly ml 10-1 'v' pick 3 races 2-4 7/2/9/10 with 7/1/2 with 7/12/10 -------------------------------- race 5 1 mile and 1/16th turf pp 1 a allie ml 10-1 'v' pp 6 manners ml 6-1 pp 8 apple charlotte ml 5/2 pp 4 castle in the coulds ml8-1 tri box 1/6/4/8 ----------------------- race 6 7f mclm 25k pp 12 proud lawman ml 5/2 pp 7 rejected ml 5-1 pp 3 ocams razor 12-1 'v' ext box 12/7/3 -------------------------- race 7 7f claiming 8k pp 3 buck cash ml 6-1 pp 2 raligh express ml 20-1 'v' pp 10 silivaiman ml 5/2 ext box 10/2/3 -------------------- race 8 1 mile and 1/16th turf pp 8 sharp suprise ml 12-1 'v' pp 6 omega cat ml 5/2 pp 9 mac n mayo ml 12-1 pp 3 scalinmillia ml 10-1 tri key 6 over 8/9/3 2 --------------------------- good luck hooves Last edited by hoovesupsideyourhead : 12-16-2009 at 09:59 AM.
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#18
12-15-2009, 07:08 PM
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You can have the 10, I think the other cheap speed wears him down. I really like Jimmy's Palace. This is his level, Rosario has him figured out. I think he sits the trip off the speed and is one of the few left running at the end. He will be a huge price and the 4 in :49 work is awfully good for this level and it tells me he likes the sand.
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#19
12-15-2009, 07:28 PM
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He's all yours, Kev. 8K N2L may be a bad race, but taking 4 trips to get through Mdn 5 at Suffolk is an all together completely different level of suck. You think she's going to get 48.2 to sit off of? The mdn breaker last out went the 6F in 1:15 ?? - I realize you can't compare tracks, but c'mon... when you break with a career high 33 bsf in 10 races, it's going to take more than 1 workout to get my wallet open. I really hate this race, because I want to spread in the last leg and thought I could get away with only using 2 here but others are intriguing if the pace melts down. Apple Charlotte in the 5th is the furthest thing from a single for me, need to use a few there as well, so I've got to trim some place.
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#20
12-15-2009, 07:36 PM
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You know as well as anyone that certain winners of certain races at TBD make no sense at all. This is one of those races. I'm not saying that I am singling him, but if I am able to play any sequences tomorrow involving that race, I will have him on all my tickets. All the horses that will most likely take money look like bad favorites. I got some really good advice on here via PM on time. "Awful horses win awful races" 
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