Random post-Derby thoughts

[justindew]

-I think any hopes of removing the graded earnings system currently in place for determining Derby starters have died their final death. Had any different system been put in place before this year, there is little chance Mine That Bird would have made the race had more than 20 horses entered this year. In fact, his name was often brought up by folks, myself included, who thought there was a problem with the current system. I can't remember where Mine That Bird ranked ultimately among the 20 starters, but at one point just before the Derby he was #20. It seems likely he would made the Derby field only under the current system. Also, it didn't seem like he was even being pointed for the Derby until he reached #22 or #21 on the list. It reminds me of 2002 when It'sallinthechase was entered in the Derby after his owner all but admitted the race wasn't on their radar until they learned the horse had the earnings to run if they wanted.

Anyway, I can't see the rules for Derby entry being changed now.

-I understand and respect the opinions of those who took a stand against Pioneerof The Nile in the Derby. Obviously, as a bettor, you have to draw a line somewhere. And eliminating POTN from one's wagers made perfect sense. He was among the favorites and had never run a fast figure, nor had he run on dirt. He was arguably the most logical toss among the favorites. However, those who tossed him must admit that they were tossing him based on what they suspected might happen, rather than what the horse had indicated would happen. It was a toss based almost entirely on speculation (unless you were persuaded to bet against him based on his premature moves in some of his preps). And no horseplayer can fairly say that a stand against POTN was irrational. However, in reading the arguments of some who feel that his 2nd-place finish proved nothing (or even that it reinforced their position that he's "not a dirt horse"), I have to ask what POTN needs to do to show he's likely to be as good dirt as turf and synetetic. By almost every account, he handled the Churchill Downs surface beautifully all week long. Not one professional observer with whom I spoke, be they trainers or clockers, said that he showed anything other than a strong liking for the dirt. Several even said he was a standout. When you combine this (subjective) "fact" with his 2nd-place finish, why do some people continue to insist that he is not a dirt horse? And what does that mean, anyway? Does that mean he is not good enough on dirt to win a graded stakes? A Grade I? Any race? What exactly is the criterion? Is the argument a matter of whether dirt is his favorite surface? It seems like when it comes to this horse, people are arguing different questions, such as...

-Will Pioneerof The Nile handle dirt?
-Is he better on dirt than turf/synthetic?
-Is he good enough on dirt to win major races on dirt?
-Is he a turf horse?

In reading the different arguments regarding this horse, it seems like there is more agreement than some people think. For instance, maybe he IS better on turf than dirt. But does that mean he can't win a Grade I on dirt? Of course not. And if he wins a Grade I, or even a Grade III on dirt, will those who claim he's "not a dirt horse" then retract their claims? Or will they just blame the weak competition or some other factor?

I guess my questions are, what is the exact argument against POTN, and how are we measuring who is right, and who is wrong? Because my feeling is that he ran a pretty good race in the Derby, and showed that he is capable of running well enough on dirt to win major races.

-I have no reason whatsoever to believe that Mine That Bird's win was aided by any kind of illegal activity. That being said, if everything was on the up and up, then I don't see how his win can be attributed merely to a liking for the surface or a rail-skimming trip. The way that horse was moving in the final 3/8 was not the way you typically see a ground-saving mud-lover move. And I get the fact that he was way back off the pace, but for a horse to close the way he did, there has to be some genuine talent. It's not like he was just moving less slowly than everyone else. His final fractions were simply fast. So, if the win was legit, then I think Mine That Bird is probably as good as the win suggested, rather than just the beneficiary of a million different factors.