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#1
02-11-2009, 06:40 AM
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2/11: Aqueduct; Gulfstream (P4's)
Enjoyed the wide array of high level stakes action nationwide Saturday but spent most of the day running luke warm to cold wagering wise. Never found the big score on the afternoon, though some OK random hits kept me motivated to continue betting. Hope you did OK...
Synthetic-based contests in California continue to be fine by me for wagering purposes, but evaluating talent levels, particularly for the 3 year olds, remains undefinable. While Pioneerof the Nile, as well as Papa Clem and I Want Revenge, may be 'nice' horses to varying degrees, it's as impossible to know how they would fair versus SE/SW, NY and FL sophs as it was last year vis a vis Colonel John, Gayego, Bob Black Jack, etc.. I expect that a West Coast developer will come East this Spring or Summer and win on dirt impressively somewhere. But you aren't going to be able to tell which one is going to do it, unless a horse bred in the purple for real main tracks is so dominant that his superiority is obvious. Still waiting for that. In the meantime, though I stopped with Derby Top 10 lists a while back, here are 5 that I like best as Derby inevitablities... 1. Old Fashioned (FG-OP) L. Jones 2. Hello Broadway (FL) Tagg 3. Chocolate Candy (No. CA) Hollendorfer 4. Free Country (FL) McPeek 5. Patena (FL) Dutrow ...and 5 that intrigue me for various reasons, or that I hope move forward toward Louisville. And if you're wondering where the Dubai-based headliners are, I'll let them make there way back to North America in one piece before becoming concerned with them. A. Flat Out (FG-OP) Dickey B. Mr. Hot Stuff (SA) Harty C. Gresham (FG-OP) Baker D. Theregoesjojo (FL) McPeek E. West Side Bernie (FL) Breen AQUEDUCT POST-SCRATCHES 6th: NYB-CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD) For a state bred $25k claiming event, this is a really fun race.. Am going to try to get a price involved, and will likely use #8 Brockly Rob in the mix with the change to Lopez in a group with questionable pace credentials.. Most Likely: #1a (POE) SCR Best Value: #4 Sister's Speed 15-1 7th Next Best: #9 Red Hot Baby 5-1 WON Exotics Use: #2e Grusmark entry 15-1 8th/9th 7th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m (P3, DD) Near-perfect Levine state-bred tries strange 'open company' ALW which drew 5 other Empire-born missees and an Emerald Isle import.. Go figure. Most Likely: #1 Lights Off Annie 7-5 4th Next Best: #5 Asbeautifulasyou 5-2 6th Best Value: #4 Say Toba Sandy 6-1 WON 8th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 6f (DD) Most Likely: #5 Labadeel 6-5 6th Next Best: #3 Pu Dew 7-2 3rd Best Value: #7 Motor City Mama 10-1 2nd 9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (Super) Call me a degenerate, but here's another fun race considering the competition level.. Not convinced that #1 Run From Hell is much horse, but Ramon certainly dangerous drawing rail as controlling speed.. Will use 2 big prices stretching out in exotics and P4: #5 Say New York Sandy (15-1) and #4 Determined Again (10-1) both show career best efforts going 8f+, races that could get it done here should the obvious ones fail.. Most Likely: #2 Gold Close to Home 2-1 2nd Next Best: #1 Run From Hell 3-1 4th Best Value: #9 Nolite Timere 5-1 WON Super Add: #4 Determined Again 10-1 7th <$75 P4 Play: 6: 1-2-4-5-8-9 7: 1-5 8: 5 9: 1-2-3-4-5-9 6x3x1x6 = $72 GULFSTREAM POST-SCRATCHES 6th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Lucky Liza 4-1 3rd Best Value: #6 Truckride 12-1 2nd Next Best: #7 Brandy Bai 3-1 6th Super Add: #10 Swing Music 6-1 WON $1 Exacta (10-6) Paid $36.10 $1 Trifecta (10-6-3) Paid $126.30 7th: S/ALW, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Mecke Me Free 3-1 3rd Best Value: #4 Champagne Brunch 6-1 WON Next Best: #12 Gold House 8-1 9th Super Add: #7 Warrior's Way 4-1 5th 8th: ALW/N$Y, 4+, 9f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Stevil 8-5 2nd Best Value: #7 East End Tap 15-1 3rd Next Best: #6 Forty Zip 4-1 7th Super Add: #8 Pegasian 12-1 4th 9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 9f-T (Super) Most Likely: #2 SCR Best Value: #5 Mimi's Kids 6-1 2nd Next Best: #11 Thin Disguise 10-1 9th Super Add: #3 Treasure Trail 6-1 6th <$50 P4 Play: 6: 3-5-6-7-9-10 7: 4-9 8: 3-7 9: 2-3-5-11 6x2x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 02-11-2009 at 04:41 PM. 
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#2
02-11-2009, 09:29 AM
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I agree that the AQU 6th is interesting, but I feel like I'm gonna go 6-7 wide in the race and then watch Saturdaynitesandy win at 3-2. I also agree on Determined Again in the finale. Could pop at a price.
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#3
02-11-2009, 09:48 AM
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It's an exceptionally quirky set of races. Am really looking forward to it though we are doing a special today on ATR ("Kentucky in Crisis") that I am very busy preparing... Anxious to see if SCR's change up anything in the sequence... G/L today!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
02-11-2009, 10:10 AM
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AQU SCR'S
1 1A Aunt Alma Early 4 1A Gold Prospect Early 5 1 (poe) Port Rock Early 2B Wild Holly Early 8 2 Rain Delay Early
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
02-11-2009, 10:11 AM
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Gulfstream -- Early Changes: Wednesday, February 11
Track: Fast Turf: Firm Rail 48 Feet Race 1: Scratch #1 Race 2: Scratch #4 #10 #14 #15 #16 Race 3: Jockey Change #10 Jermaine Bridgmohan Race 4: Scratch #9 Race 5: Scratch #13 #14 #15 #16 Race 6: Scratch #4 #11 Race 7: Scratch #5 #13 #14 #15 #16 Jockey Change #7 Jermaine Bridgmohan Race 8: Scratch #2 Race 9: #9 #13 #14 #15 #16 Jockey Change #4 Julien Leparoux
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
02-11-2009, 01:49 PM
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Looking forward to listening to the "KIC" piece today.
Split larger ticket with brother, the rest is at it alone. Hoping Chinsegut Bay runs out of his skin today.  ... GL Steve and to all playing!.50 3,7 7,9,12 3,4,6,9 2,5,11 $1 3,5,7,10 4,12 3,9 2 R8 $10 W #9 (Chinsegut Bay) $62 total...44 of which is mine..GL all!!!
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#7
02-11-2009, 02:41 PM
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Jesustapdancingchrist... I changed my play and blew this sequence.. Was 5x3x1x5 and tried to spread a little further on the top and bottom and outsmarted myself. Uggh...
Mmmm.. I feel better. Wouldn't have had the winner of the 8th..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 02-11-2009 at 03:14 PM.
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#8
02-11-2009, 03:53 PM
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Quote:
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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