Nearly $2 Million in horse flesh running in today's 2nd at AQU

NoLuvForPletch · #1 02-05-2009, 08:40 AM

Not something you see too often. Seems like an unusual group making their debut on the inner, no?

Any insight from anyone, as i'd like to play the Pick 4 but have trouble using an 800K yearling purchase making his debut when it is 25 degrees, 18 months after purchase. And of the two that ran, I would choose the Weaver horse over the favorite, as his start was just about as bad as you can get. So leaving out both the 800K purchase and the favorite are not your normal recipe for success.

Bobby Fischer · #2 02-05-2009, 08:57 AM

teh 2 (Valid Sum) has the classy pedigree. I almost wonder why he went for only .25
it wasn't a cheap buy really, almost twice the sireavg , probably just a buyers market.

Hushion/Narlinger has some high expectations and you see the BIG work Much The Best had on Jan 3rd, and a few nice other works as well. Dominguez controls the race to some extent unless one of the 2entry happen to be really good.

Habersham000 · #3 02-05-2009, 08:59 AM

Why would you toss a horse just because he is making his first start in Feb of his 3 yo year no matter what the purchase price is? Do you know how many great horses don't run their first race until 3. The horse has never really had a gap in between works since he started in Oct.

Tossing the horse because this is his first start is

NoLuvForPletch · #4 02-05-2009, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Habersham000

Why would you toss a horse just because he is making his first start in Feb of his 3 yo year no matter what the purchase price is? Do you know how many great horses don't run their first race until 3. The horse has never really had a gap in between works since he started in Oct.

Tossing the horse because this is his first start is

It's not the when, but the where...gulfstream yes, the aqueduct inner...not so much

Linny · #5 02-05-2009, 09:21 AM

There have been several nice maidens at AQU this winter. By "nice" I mean they feature expensive well bred types from "Belmont/Saratoga" type connections. Honestly, most of the horses in these races would be in FLA if the connections really thought that they were "A listers" but it does make the winter meet more interesting.

Linny · #6 02-05-2009, 10:52 AM

For the NY mainstays like Hushion, Billy Turner or a guy like Anthony Dutrow, these might be the best 3yo's they have. OTOH, a guy like Weaver or McLaughlin who are based in FLA over winter, they take their best to FLA.
Though this is a good opportunity to break your maiden for a big purse you just don't get as accurate a feel for your horse in terms of "classic potential" because when it comes down to it, many of these horses will be running for a $30k tag by Saratoga. In fact horses that win and place in the winter 3yo stakes usually can be had for a tag by year's end.
It's not like Darley is worried about the difference between the AQU purse and the GP purse for MSW's. They go to FLA with 3yo's to test them against the best 3yo's they can.

Handicappy · #7 02-05-2009, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

For the NY mainstays like Hushion, Billy Turner or a guy like Anthony Dutrow, these might be the best 3yo's they have. OTOH, a guy like Weaver or McLaughlin who are based in FLA over winter, they take their best to FLA.
Though this is a good opportunity to break your maiden for a big purse you just don't get as accurate a feel for your horse in terms of "classic potential" because when it comes down to it, many of these horses will be running for a $30k tag by Saratoga. In fact horses that win and place in the winter 3yo stakes usually can be had for a tag by year's end.
It's not like Darley is worried about the difference between the AQU purse and the GP purse for MSW's. They go to FLA with 3yo's to test them against the best 3yo's they can.

If you are saying that McL's horses here are not his best, that is true. But he has such a deep stable that even his second string horses are extremely well bred. I heard Contessa once say, "I'd love to have your second string" to Kiaran's assistant. Also, another consideration is that his assistant, who stays at AQU, Art Magnuson, tends to train much of Kiaran's stable at the start of their respective careers. Hence, one of his best may lurk in one of these MSW's up here. They ship back and forth all the time.

NoLuvForPletch · #8 02-05-2009, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handicappy

If you are saying that McL's horses here are not his best, that is true. But he has such a deep stable that even his second string horses are extremely well bred. I heard Contessa once say, "I'd love to have your second string" to Kiaran's assistant. Also, another consideration is that his assistant, who stays at AQU, Art Magnuson, tends to train much of Kiaran's stable at the start of their respective careers. Hence, one of his best may lurk in one of these MSW's up here. They ship back and forth all the time.

While I like Artie, and know how good he is, I'm sure if the Darley $800K horse was the s*#t, he would be with Kiaran is sunny F L A...

I'm tossing him and will use the Hushion and the Weaver and maybe save a little with the Dutrow...

Good Luck All...

As a sidenote, the 2 entry is currently 4th betting choice with the 3/5 in the Doubles...

Linny · #9 02-05-2009, 11:30 AM

From a handicapping standpoint you have to consider the Mc Laughlin's. They may be his 4th string and be able to beat these.
In terms of assessing this maiden in comparison to similar conditioned races in NY, SoCal and even New Orleans, the odds are that though a good horse can come from anyplace, the overall quality is not in NY in early February.

Bobby Fischer · #10 02-05-2009, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

As a sidenote, the 2 entry is currently 4th betting choice with the 3/5 in the Doubles...

they like that cheap 5 in the doubles
maybe hushions horse has some doubts, or else they don't know how to handicap

Linny · #11 02-05-2009, 11:34 AM

I think Sir John had a poor trip in the debut. Could be better than he showed.

Bobby Fischer · #12 02-05-2009, 11:46 AM

4-2 exacta should pay about 10,12 bucks for a $1. thats not terrible.

Bobby Fischer · #13 02-05-2009, 11:54 AM

tough to see these horses in the post parade very well

the 2 valid sum looks good but may need distance

the 4 should probably crush these horses, the race seems to be in ramon's control

Bobby Fischer · #14 02-05-2009, 11:55 AM

no show money on the 4

NoLuvForPletch · #15 02-05-2009, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

tough to see these horses in the post parade very well

the 2 valid sum looks good but may need distance

the 4 should probably crush these horses, the race seems to be in ramon's control

I'm going with the final call being, "Much the Best, is just that. He wins by 4"...