Beaten Favorite

[mrmikegap]

I'm mostly a weekend warrior pace handicapper, but I also like to use a spot play angle. The criteria for a horse's last race is:

1) The horse must have been the race favorite at odds of $1.90 or less. A $1.90e or less race favorite does not qualify.
2) Horse must have ran out of the money.
3) The horse could have finished 2nd or 3rd, but it must have been beaten by 5+ lengths.
4) Today's race class is the same or lower than last race.

I use rule #4 very straight forwardly. Is today's claiming price the same, higher, or lower than its last race. Is today's purse for the allowance/mspw the same, higher, or lower. I don't consider what track the horse's last race was run at, or any restrictions put on a race (1x, 2L, state bred, etc).

Horses who qualify seem to win often, but I've never keep records as to what the win percentage is. Can anybody run these rules through a database to see what the win rate is? If not, no problem. I'll just start keep records. Thank you for your help in advance.