Bounce Theory

[dellinger63]

Hasn't been argued about here in a while but tomorrow should provide a perfect experiment. Kamboo Man in Aqueduct's 9th, is coming off a career high 108 Beyer in a 7.5K claiming race (never seen it before). I know he ran on lead uncontested but had 96-97 moss figs to get it. 6/5 ML. IMO he bounces or for anti-bounce believers 'regresses' severely.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Obviously he's got no way to go but backwards.

In his only other wet track start he won by 9+ lengths going 5 furlongs. He came back next out in a six figure stake race over a fast track and was 8th by 29 lengths at 9/2.

Probably just a wet track freak ... it's also alarming that the trainer didn't jump him up even a single level off that win.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

What about My Maloof Rocker in the 5th at Anita tomorrow?

[eajinabi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Obviously he's got no way to go but backwards.

In his only other wet track start he won by 9+ lengths going 5 furlongs. He came back next out in a six figure stake race over a fast track and was 8th by 29 lengths at 9/2.

Probably just a wet track freak ... it's also alarming that the trainer didn't jump him up even a single level off that win.

Thats what I am saying. He wins by 13 with a 108 beyer yet he still wants to get rid of him for only 7500. That a huge red flag

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

Thats what I am saying. He wins by 13 with a 108 beyer yet he still wants to get rid of him for only 7500. That a huge red flag

Or, a huge green flag signalling to bet against this horse. This is my favorite type of betting race.

--Dunbar

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Bounce theory folks, what say you? About this $4.50 winner? Btw, is the bounce theory more useful with fillies n' mares?

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

Thats what I am saying. He wins by 13 with a 108 beyer yet he still wants to get rid of him for only 7500. That a huge red flag

Ran huge again and was claimed...

[SCUDSBROTHER]

My Maloof Rocker was off the board. She was taken to the lead though. Who knows if that's considered a bounce, or just a mess. Those Calbred turf alowance filly n' mares are pretty much despicable individuals to begin with.

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Ran huge again and was claimed...

Going to Peter Chin. God bless his soul...

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

My Maloof Rocker was off the board. She was taken to the lead though. Who knows if that's considered a bounce, or just a mess. Those Calbred turf alowance filly n' mares are pretty much despicable individuals to begin with.

Your girl is a Cal bred and should win at Gulfstream next weekend....She ran huge in her last race...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

With Kamboo Man - his last out Beyer of 108 was 39 points higher than the next fastest last out Beyer in the field. Which means his last race was 15 1/4 lengths better than anyone elses last race on figures ... a mere 11 1/2 lengths more than his actual 3.75 length margin of victory.

So, using that standard, he regressed signficantly and still won laughing.

Him opening up at 5/1 was unreal...though I totally understand why he was a hard horse to bet at a real short price because with modest expectations tend to come modest results in the lower levels of the claiming game - and he wasn't raised off such a monster performance.

I assume his figure will come back about 8-to-10 points higher than his previous two fast dirt track Beyers, which were in the Mid 80's - but still 15 points lower than his wet track freakout last out.

This was something of an absurd example to talk about a bounce though - because the horse had obviously no place to go but backwards. It would be like talking about a bounce for Ghostzapper after his 128 Beyer wet track Iselin Handicap win. Yeah, he only managed a 114 next out, a 14 point regression...but he still won despite being floated out bad.

Predicting a bounce when a $7,500 claimer runs a triple digit Beyer - is like predicting a forward move when Afleet Alex runs a 70 Beyer in the Rebel and is wheeled back in 4 weeks with a good work or two in him.

That was a pretty neat situation anyway. Lets see what he does next time he's on a wet track - assuming he's sound enough when that time comes.

[pmacdaddy]

That board was wild with Kamboo man. 5-1 with about 15 MTP.... Got me all hot under the collar. Then dropped to where expected. Strange.

[eajinabi]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Ran huge again and was claimed...

Trainer was stupid to give it away

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

Trainer was stupid to give it away

We will see...

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Scav

Your girl is a Cal bred and should win at Gulfstream next weekend....She ran huge in her last race...

Feel better about it if it was a turf sprint. Don't care for that p-stream. I'll play that Vivian horse back there though(the one that blew the start in the last on Sunday.) A single if comes back in maiden claiming.

[VOL JACK]

Kamboo man: 91 beyer

[dellinger63]

when I said bounce I thought below his 2 previous to his freak on 108. I was obviously wrong not only here but at the window too.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

Trainer was stupid to give it away

I think that remains to be seen, we are still talking $8,000 claimers, no? If Chin brings him back in a $20,000 claimer and he bombs, maybe whomever had him until today dips in again at a lower level. Guess that's the fun in it...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

With Kamboo Man - his last out Beyer of 108 was 39 points higher than the next fastest last out Beyer in the field. Which means his last race was 15 1/4 lengths better than anyone elses last race on figures ... a mere 11 1/2 lengths more than his actual 3.75 length margin of victory.

So, using that standard, he regressed signficantly and still won laughing.

Him opening up at 5/1 was unreal...though I totally understand why he was a hard horse to bet at a real short price because with modest expectations tend to come modest results in the lower levels of the claiming game - and he wasn't raised off such a monster performance.

I assume his figure will come back about 8-to-10 points higher than his previous two fast dirt track Beyers, which were in the Mid 80's - but still 15 points lower than his wet track freakout last out.

This was something of an absurd example to talk about a bounce though - because the horse had obviously no place to go but backwards. It would be like talking about a bounce for Ghostzapper after his 128 Beyer wet track Iselin Handicap win. Yeah, he only managed a 114 next out, a 14 point regression...but he still won despite being floated out bad.

Predicting a bounce when a $7,500 claimer runs a triple digit Beyer - is like predicting a forward move when Afleet Alex runs a 70 Beyer in the Rebel and is wheeled back in 4 weeks with a good work or two in him.

That was a pretty neat situation anyway. Lets see what he does next time he's on a wet track - assuming he's sound enough when that time comes.

DrugS, what did you mean by "That was a pretty neat situation anyway"? How did you factor the fact that the horse came back at $7,500? For me, it was about as strong a bet-against as I will find, at least until the AQ bettors showed so much restraint in betting on him. I expected him to go off at 4-5.

If that same set of horses had showed up in a $10K+ claimer, I would have liked Kamboo Man at 6-5.

The owner did pocket $16.5K for the win--1st place was worth $9K. Maybe they needed to pay some bills?

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Another thing. The 2nd place horse encountered trouble according to the chart. "shuffled back...steadied sharply...6-wide". I haven't watched the replay, but that sounds like it could have made up for much or all of the 3.75 length margin at the end.

--Dunbar