Declan's Moon...Turf on Thursday

[jcs11204]

he's trying turf for the first time on thursday. he is now 6 and all indications are he is all done.
he has not run a credible race since... 7/5/07, and that was against a weak 5 horse field... and before that it was 7/16/06 and that was vs a weak 4 horse field.
i am not knocking the horse, but the fact that he's a gelding does not mean you have to run him forever, hopefully i am wrong and the turf works out for him... i think Tall Texan is a serious horse and declan will have his hands full beating him.

[Danzig]

said the guy using perfect drift in his pick 3/4's...

seriously tho, would like to see him show something of what he used to have-but i doubt it happens.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Danzig

said the guy using perfect drift in his pick 3/4's...

seriously tho, would like to see him show something of what he used to have-but i doubt it happens.

i am glad you also said seriously though...
as for the top comment, i know ppl around here were impressed with perfect drifts comeback,not just me

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i am glad you also said seriously though...
as for the top comment, i know ppl around here were impressed with perfect drifts comeback,not just me

impressed to the point of spedning money on his next out vs these horses?

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Danzig

impressed to the point of spedning money on his next out vs these horses?

i get your point, loud and clear... i will not bet him to win, but since i dont see a single in that race, i will be spreading and not leaving him out... 3-4 deep
heetseeker
go between
p drift

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

he's trying turf for the first time on thursday. he is now 6 and all indications are he is all done.
he has not run a credible race since... 7/5/07, and that was against a weak 5 horse field... and before that it was 7/16/06 and that was vs a weak 4 horse field.
i am not knocking the horse, but the fact that he's a gelding does not mean you have to run him forever, hopefully i am wrong and the turf works out for him... i think Tall Texan is a serious horse and declan will have his hands full beating him.

Declan's Moon's race on Thursday is not on the grass. It's on the cushion track. I think the only reason they haven't retired him is because he still works like his old self in the morning. As good as he works, they can't believe that he won't run better. If he doesn't step up with a good effort soon, I think they are going to retire him very soon. They won't run him forever if he continues running like this, and they won't run him for a tag. He was too good to them.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Declan's Moon's race on Thursday is not on the grass. It's on the cushion track. I think the only reason they haven't retired him is because he still works like his old self in the morning. As good as he works, they can't believe that he won't run better. If he doesn't step up with a good effort soon, I think they are going to retire him very soon. They won't run him forever if he continues running like this, and they won't run him for a tag. He was too good to them.

It doesn't help that his trainer is incompetent.

[zippyneedsawin]

Since he's a gelding, I think they'll keep trying.. for now.

[ddthetide]

he's not run a decent race since he was injured at 3 and missed the TC. kinda sad.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

It doesn't help that his trainer is incompetent.

Why would you say that? He consistently has one of the highest win percentages of any trainer. Win percentage is certainly not the only metric to use when evaluating a trainer's ability, but I don't think there are too many incompetent trainers out there with really high win percentages.

Ellis' win percentages is slightly lower than normal this year, but that's only because he has an unusually high number of 2nd place finishes this year. He is at 17% this year. He has 15 wins from 90 starts but he has run second about 23 or 24 times. His win percentage was 29% in 2006 and it was 19% in 2007. He can't be too incompetent with numbers like that.

In addition, look at the way he moves horses up off the claim. He does it very consistently. The one I can think of most recently is the one that ran on Saturday. The horse's name is Quick Enough. He claimed that horse off Carla Gaines for $25,000 back in December. He got the horse to win a starter allowance race, then a $54,000 nwx1 state bred allowance race, and then a $52,000 nwx1 open allowance race. They paid $25,000 for the horse 6 months ago. He's already made $90,000 and his value has gone up by 3x. Those owners have made about 6x their money.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by ddthetide

he's not run a decent race since he was injured at 3 and missed the TC. kinda sad.

Not true. His first two come back races were very good, then he seemed to stop trying. He has been a hell of a work horse in the morning.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

In this day and age, is winning at a 17% clip really high?

His win percentage over the last few years is about is about 22% not 17%. As I said, the 17% this year is very misleading because he has 15 wins but about 23 or 24 seconds. That's an aberration. He's basically a 20% trainer. That is very high on the Southern California circuit.

[ArlJim78]

I cant imagine what the knock is on Ellis. He seems like a solid trainer to me.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Doesn't he train for you? So maybe you are a bit biased?

It doesn't matter whether he trains for me or not. I'm just talking about the facts. He has strengths and weaknesses like every trainer. I recognize that win percentage is not everything, but over the last few years he has consistently had one of the highest win percentages on this circuit. When horses move into his barn, they usually improve.

He can't be completely incompetent.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

he has not run a credible race since... 7/5/07.

While true, didn't they discover a throat issue after his race at Del Mar last year? He had some sort of surgery if I remember correctly.

I've actually never been a big fan of this horse, and I never really thought much of him, even as a 2yo. That being said, I see no problem with the connections continuing to race him. Why wouldn't they?

[The Bid]

There are a lot of trainers who are incompetant who have won at 20%

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Bid

There are a lot of trainers who are incompetant who have won at 20%

half the guys at delaware

[The Bid]

There are a lot of guys who are good trainers who hit at 10-15%, and a lot of guys who are clowns that hit at 20+%.

The difference between the real good guys and the mediocre guys is vetting. How how much owners are willing to spend for vetting has a lot to do with how these horses run. There are only so many ways to bring a horse into a race, and some guys are better at doing that than others, however I do not think a win % is a fair gauge for rating a trainer.

[Indian Charlie]

I've heard the man speak and the dude is frickin clueless.

I left socal five years ago and don't follow the circuit like I used to, but what I remember is that he clearly got very nice stock from his owners and constantly underachieved with them.

He kind of reminds me of Gary Jones (except that Jones had no concerns about a horse's welfare). Year in and year out they would get well bred and talented horses that always seemed to underachieve.

He also sort of fits the mold used to cast Alex Hassinger, Simon Bray and that former Lukas assistant that trained Artax. Granted, he's not as bad as they all were but he definitely underachieves with what he's received.

Do I even need to bring up the Declan's Moon aiming for the Malibu thing?

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Why would you say that? He consistently has one of the highest win percentages of any trainer. Win percentage is certainly not the only metric to use when evaluating a trainer's ability, but I don't think there are too many incompetent trainers out there with really high win percentages.

Ellis' win percentages is slightly lower than normal this year, but that's only because he has an unusually high number of 2nd place finishes this year. He is at 17% this year. He has 15 wins from 90 starts but he has run second about 23 or 24 times. His win percentage was 29% in 2006 and it was 19% in 2007. He can't be too incompetent with numbers like that.

In addition, look at the way he moves horses up off the claim. He does it very consistently. The one I can think of most recently is the one that ran on Saturday. The horse's name is Quick Enough. He claimed that horse off Carla Gaines for $25,000 back in December. He got the horse to win a starter allowance race, then a $54,000 nwx1 state bred allowance race, and then a $52,000 nwx1 open allowance race. They paid $25,000 for the horse 6 months ago. He's already made $90,000 and his value has gone up by 3x. Those owners have made about 6x their money.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Do I even need to bring up the Declan's Moon aiming for the Malibu thing?

Rupert insists that it was the reporters mistake and not RE's.