Horse Racing Dichotomy

[Split Rock]

I did not think Big Brown could win. In fact, I was pretty sure he wouldn't win. I mean, which horse can break from the 20 post, run wide the entire way, at a distance they've never been, pressing a relatively fast early pace, only a few minutes of racing experience away from being a maiden and not get run down by a Grade 1 winning closer from behind? He would have to be 10 lengths best.

As it turned out, Big Brown is a minimum of 10 lengths better than the other three-year olds. He never looked to be asked, at any point, until mid stretch. I've watched every Derby since 1986 (and many more via replays on Youtube) and there aren't many that stand out as much as this one. I think Big Brown may have given Big Red a run for his money today.

Triple Crown? Foregone conclusion. Provided he stays healthy and doesn't run into upset "racing gods", he may not be tested in Baltimore or New York. He appears far superior to any three-year old colt in training.

Herein lies the oddity. 80% (maybe more) of the racing public does not want this horse to win the triple crown. I could understand rooting against Real Quiet or Charismatic. Both were very non-descript runners prior to their run at infamy. It would be sacrilegious to give up such a nostalgic jewel to a runner that doesn't take your breath away, simply by looking at the PP's.

So, why isn't there more of a celebration around this colt? Why aren't fans euphoric about the idea of an undefeated Triple Crown winner? It's very simple. The horse is owned and managed by despicable people. The trainer is a confirmed violator of illegal substances. He is arrogant and disrespectful. He laughs in the face of all the hard work being put in by those not fortunate enough to have a Big Brown or a Saint Liam. ESPN did a story on Bennie Stutts, a 70+ trainer having his first Derby horse in 40+ years in the game. He was so emotional just being on the grounds and around the history and pageantry that he could not get through the interview without tearing up. Why can't karma play a part and give the win to this guy?

The owners are even easier to dislike. Geared out in their $2000 suits and mafia sunglasses, parking their limo's outside the barn, they are about as self important as anyone can be. When someone says, "you can't buy class", I think we have a clearer visual of what that means. They have entered the sport to make a profit on the breeding end. That means we are likely very close to seeing the end of Big Brown's racing career. IEAH Stables are the residue of an industry imploding and fighting for scraps like wolves over a dead carcass. The chaos in the industry opened the door for these vultures.

All of this is certainly not the horse's fault. He is talented. Supremely talented. However, there was something eerie about the finish of the 2008 Derby. Big Brown cruised to the lead at the top of the stretch and looked to draw away from the pool of exhausted pylons left in his wake. Out of that bunch came Eight Belles. She tested Big Brown without really challenging for the victory. Clearly, she ran herself to death. When the race was over, the immediate excitement about a great win was tarnished by the inopportune tragedy. There was a thought that came to mind. Would Big Brown be tested for illegal substances? If so, would anything be found? Does horse racing need a wake up call like a Kentucky Derby winner being disqualified for drugs? Maybe karma would play a part. If a drug test found the presence of drugs, Eight Belles would end up the winner of the 2008 Kentucky Derby. Please (racing) God, make it happen.

[_ed_]

Great post, a lot of which I strongly agree with.

[DaTruth]

Dutrow was not as boastful when asked about the Preakness: ""I've got to say, that his next race coming up is out of my hands, because it's coming back in two weeks. I'm not going to have a chance to train him. I'm just going to kind of play around with him. I don't even know when I'm going to ship him there. But the timing is not good for me. I know he looks like he's the best horse of his crop, but still he's got to go over there in two weeks and has to show up there the right way again. There's going to be some new horses, I don't know what post he's going to get, that kind of stuff. I don't think I'm going to feel as confident. My hands are tied."

Are the wheels about to come off Big Brown?

[_ed_]

That's interesting...VERY different to his attitude leading in to the Derby.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by _ed_

That's interesting...VERY different to his attitude leading in to the Derby.

Close to a 180. Of course, maybe he is just saying that to get better odds in two weeks.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Split Rock

If a drug test found the presence of drugs, Eight Belles would end up the winner of the 2008 Kentucky Derby. Please (racing) God, make it happen.

I'm no fan of Dutrow, and I'm as upset as anyone about Eight Belles today...

But you do realize that your plea to the Almighty would be just about the single worst thing that could happen to racing? The very short lived opportunity everyone would have to feel all good about themselves honoring Eight Belles after she passed would be completely overshadowed by the raging, swollen, irreparable black eye on the sport.

I hope you rethink your prayers on this one. Dutrow is a d-bag, for sure. And Brown is the real thing.

But if he came back positive, the very short-term benefits and righteous indignation towards Dutrow would feel great, sure, then three days later you'd realize what a shitstorm it had just caused in the world of anyone connected to racing.

I think you're coloring this with way too much emotion, and not enough hard thinking about what your dream scenario would really mean.

Begging for the Kentucky Derby winner to test positive for drugs is not even within my realm of thinking, or feeling, or emotion even after what happened today. I honestly don't understand how any racing fan or horseplayer could wish for that to happen.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I'm no fan of Dutrow, and I'm as upset as anyone about Eight Belles today...

But you do realize that your plea to the Almighty would be just about the single worst thing that could happen to racing? The very short lived opportunity everyone would have to feel all good about themselves honoring Eight Belles after she passed would be completely overshadowed by the raging, swollen, irreparable black eye on the sport.

I hope you rethink your prayers on this one. Dutrow is a d-bag, for sure. And Brown is the real thing.

But if he came back positive, the very short-term benefits and righteous indignation towards Dutrow would feel great, sure, then three days later you'd realize what a shitstorm it had just caused in the world of anyone connected to racing.

I think you're coloring this with way too much emotion, and not enough hard thinking about what your dream scenario would really mean.

Begging for the Kentucky Derby winner to test positive for drugs is not even within my realm of thinking, or feeling, or emotion even after what happened today. I honestly don't understand how any racing fan or horseplayer could wish for that to happen.

I agree 100% Brian, I understand the emotion but damn....! Dutrow is easily disliked by some, but I see a guy who has gone through great personal tragedy in his life, been completely down and out living in a stall at Aquaduct and yet...here he is! Call him what you want, he is a survivor and clearly loves his daughter...there are far worse folks in the world. I do believe in karma so perhaps he's been misjudged a bit?

[Split Rock]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Call him what you want, he is a survivor and clearly loves his daughter...

Clearly loves his daughter? That is relevant.

[Charismatic1]

Originally Posted by Split Rock

Triple Crown? Foregone conclusion. Provided he stays healthy and doesn't run into upset "racing gods", he may not be tested in Baltimore or New York. He appears far superior to any three-year old colt in training.

That sure hasn't been said over the last 30 years! That statement makes it hard not to discount everything else said there. The way the Triple Crown has been prevented, lost, and denied over the last three decades, one has to be more conscious of this folly.

[Split Rock]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I'm no fan of Dutrow, and I'm as upset as anyone about Eight Belles today...

But you do realize that your plea to the Almighty would be just about the single worst thing that could happen to racing? The very short lived opportunity everyone would have to feel all good about themselves honoring Eight Belles after she passed would be completely overshadowed by the raging, swollen, irreparable black eye on the sport.

I hope you rethink your prayers on this one. Dutrow is a d-bag, for sure. And Brown is the real thing.

But if he came back positive, the very short-term benefits and righteous indignation towards Dutrow would feel great, sure, then three days later you'd realize what a shitstorm it had just caused in the world of anyone connected to racing.

I think you're coloring this with way too much emotion, and not enough hard thinking about what your dream scenario would really mean.

Begging for the Kentucky Derby winner to test positive for drugs is not even within my realm of thinking, or feeling, or emotion even after what happened today. I honestly don't understand how any racing fan or horseplayer could wish for that to happen.

We're going to agree to disagree here. Do you think the drug issue in baseball would be investigated with the same ferver had the smug Barry Bonds not broken a hallowed record? Forever, there will be an asterisk next to that record, if it is even mentioned at all going forward.

I not only think a Kentucky Derby winner being DQ'd is what the sport needs, I would go a step further and say a Triple Crown winner being DQ'd is what the sport needs. National attention to this very serious issue is the only way it will be rectified.

If Dutrow is on the up and up with Big Brown (which, to me, seems virtually impossible, especially based on what I saw today) then I would be the first to say he deserves it and appreciate the accomplishments. However, the Mullins', Lake's, Ness's, Dutrow's, Pletcher's, Assmussen's have absolutely ruined the sport for me and reduced it to a simple gambling venture.

[Split Rock]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

That sure hasn't been said over the last 30 years! That statement makes it hard not to discount everything else said there. The way the Triple Crown has been prevented, lost, and denied over the last three decades, one has to be more conscious of this folly.

How can winning at Pimlico against a likely 8 horse (tops) field or at Belmont against three other opponents be tougher than what he did today? Watch the replay of the race and tell me the last horse that won the Derby in that fashion.

[Charismatic1]

Seriously??? How about Barbaro?!? His tragic Preakness is just one example of how the Triple Crown goes awry. However, I think Big Brown's Derby is pretty similar to War Emblem in 2002, except War Emblem faced a deeper field. 4 to 5 length win. Completely the best. Hell, both races had the same 1/4 and 1/2 mile fractions. I know this sounds like heresy less than 24 hours after Big Brown bucked history, so my apologies to the Big Brown church.

Having said that, I fully expect him to win the Preakness impressively. But the Preakness hasn't been the problem in recent years. It's that little race called the Belmont that seems to trip up legit hopes even when the others seem hopeless. Smarty Jones loomed over his field and staggered home after insane middle fractions, Real Quiet led by five with a furlong to go and got nipped, War Emblem stumbled so we can't say how he would've done, and obviously many more. That's not even considering the possibility of Barbaro, and near Derby misses like Afleet Alex, Point Given, and Risen Star. After all the inconceivable ways it hasn't happened, I will never again think a horse will win it until the horse actually does it. I don't care how good the horse looks.

I'm not meaning to discredit you. Your "foregone conclusion" statement just smells very familiar to the last time Desormeaux won the Derby with the prohibitive favorite. Everyone knows how that turned out....in an eight horse Preakness field.

[jballscalls]

Agree with Bspencers post earlier. I dont understand why people have such hate for IEAH or Dutrow for that matter. So they dress nice and are in it for an investment. so what!! They have not proven to be cruel people, i thought Mr. Iavorone's speech after the race was classy. I just dont get it!!!

As for Dutrow, sure he's been in trouble, but so have alot of other trainers, and i havent heard people questioning them after recent big victories hoping they would be dq'd after them (Dubai WC?)

Is it jealousy, bitterness that makes people have such disdain??

[AeWingnut]

I thought we were back on track after Curlin, Street Sense and Hard Spun.

if Big Brown wins the TC it will be by default

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

Dutrow was not as boastful when asked about the Preakness: ""I've got to say, that his next race coming up is out of my hands, because it's coming back in two weeks. I'm not going to have a chance to train him. I'm just going to kind of play around with him. I don't even know when I'm going to ship him there. But the timing is not good for me. I know he looks like he's the best horse of his crop, but still he's got to go over there in two weeks and has to show up there the right way again. There's going to be some new horses, I don't know what post he's going to get, that kind of stuff. I don't think I'm going to feel as confident. My hands are tied."

Are the wheels about to come off Big Brown?

I'll be crucified for this post I'm sure, but he looked 'off' in the right front walking to the winner's circle. A horse that has hoof problems as this one has most likely will feel the aftermath of running a 10 panel race.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

I thought we were back on track after Curlin, Street Sense and Hard Spun.

if Big Brown wins the TC it will be by default

Disagree with this. None of those horses were parked out in post 20. The rest of that crop was not clearly better than this crop. And I probably would have taken Eight Belles in a matchup against Hard Spun in a hypothetical Preakness if she had survived the race yesterday.

Big Brown clearly had the most talent going into the race. He made all the capping contortions we went through looking for value on other horses appear foolish. If he can come back in two weeks and win again, and then survive 1.5 grueling miles at Belmont, he will be a deserving TC winner.

--Dunbar

[TheSpyder]

Horse players are judging people. We judge horses past performance, racing conditions, track conditions, weather, breeding, trainers, owners, and each other.

That does not make us good judges, just judges.

We feel compelled to make conclusions, which is fine, but can we not open ourselves to understand we are no smarter, better, or able to make right decisions than anyone else.

As to hopeing BB comes back positive, how would it change anything in a sport where no one is able to step forward to really make effective changes?

Spyder

[SilverRP]

Sorry, but I'm ignorant..... are they not testing horses now?

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Disagree with this. None of those horses were parked out in post 20. The rest of that crop was not clearly better than this crop. And I probably would have taken Eight Belles in a matchup against Hard Spun in a hypothetical Preakness if she had survived the race yesterday.

Big Brown clearly had the most talent going into the race. He made all the capping contortions we went through looking for value on other horses appear foolish. If he can come back in two weeks and win again, and then survive 1.5 grueling miles at Belmont, he will be a deserving TC winner.

--Dunbar

You're right.

And there's no sense to griping about the "worthiness" or "likability" of the connections.

First of all, all you know about the connections is what the media report, who tend to present incendiary and salacious information rather than a balanced view of people's everyday lives. It's boring to report that Dutrow goes to church every Sunday, is nice to dogs and contributes to charities -- that doesn't sell. You really don't know enough about any of the connections to make such a personal evaluation as whether they're good or bad people (whatever that means).

Secondly, even if they are bad, unworthy people (in your view), that's just the way life is. If I told you that Thomas Edison was a cheat and a philanderer, would you feel bad about using light bulbs?

If Big Brown wins the Preakness, I'll probably be among the 200,000 cheering at Belmont. It'd be nice if there was a "feel good" story about the connections, but even if there isn't, I'll still enjoy the day and the moment in history. In the end, it's all about the horse.

[horseofcourse]

Big Brown is excellent, but at this point he is just winning. I looked at the Beyers and they gave them pretty formful numbers....109 for big Brown...102 for Eight Belles, and I guess 97 for Denis of Cork. So for the top 3, those are pretty much what they've run in their prior career best or only minimal improvement in the case of the top 2. So a top 3 year old running 105-110 Beyers is really nothing extraordinary at all and pretty typical of what we see in Derby preps and Derby's of winners. Big Brown is certainly very nice, but I haven't seen anything separating him from other recent Derby winners. And in that vain, I see nothing at all guaranteeing a triple crown. Absolutely nothing.