Kentucky Oaks/Derby Analysis & Selections

[Bogey]

Churchill Downs - Oaks/Derby Double
Fri - Race 10 - G1 Kentucky Oaks

#1 Golden Doc A - Cali filly has been solid this year and fired a bullet at CD.
#2 Absolutely Cindy - Kinmon homebred has been useful as a turfer, but her lone dirt try was a disaster. She did beat the boys in the Battagilia at Turfway Park.
#3 Awesome Chic - Florida Oaks winner really improved going two turns and is capable with another step forward.
#4 Elusive Lady - Will show some early speed, but hard to imagine she'll be around late.
#5 Rasierra - With only a maiden win to her credit, I'm leaning elsewhere.
#6 Country Star - Frankel has been high on her since the beginning with good reason. Two time G1 winner has a ton of talent. Look for her to find her best stride late.
#7 Little Belle - Looking for 4th consecutive victory for Godolphin. Would not be a surprise.
#8 Proud Spell - Diminutive filly has a similar racing record to Pyro, which includes two solid efforts in the Big Easy before a bad start dud at KEE.
#9 A to the Croft - McPeek taking a shot after she failed at odds on in an allowance at KEE.
#10 Bsharpsonata - Brings sharp record and backers will get another decent price.
#11 Pure Clan - Big Brown gang looking for a memorable weekend. She'll be rolling late and finding the winner's circle

Top 5

#11 Pure Clan
#8 Proud Spell
#6 County Star
#3 Awesome Chic
#7 Little Belle

Sat - Race 10 - G1 Kentucky Derby

#1 Cool Coal Man - Benefited from perfect set up in the Fountain of Youth at GP from same post, but this is a different animal. Looks like Tarzan, but runs like Jane.
#2 Tale of Ekati - Wood Memorial winner will hope the race falls apart.
#3 Anak Nakal - Has not progressed as a Sophomore and looks a cut below. Pedigree says yes, but seems like Zito is bringing a couple of knives to a gun fight this year.
#4 Court Vision - Making important 3rd start of the year and is training well at the right time. It seems he's sitting on a big one and must be included in all exotics.
#5 Eight Belles - Connections taking a swing with nice filly that looked tired in last and now must go another furlong and a half?
#6 Z Fortune - Strong 2nd in G2 Arkansas Derby, but his latest workout was iffy at best.
#7 Big Truck - Won a weak Tampa Bay Derby and simply seems over-matched here.
#8 Visionaire - Class act, Matz easy to root for. Must bring A game to contend with this bunch.
#9 Pyro - Winchell homebred has the foundation and ability to be a Derby winner. Toss Blue Grass debacle because of the surface. I look for him to be draped with roses.
#10 Colonel John - Tough customer always finds a way of being right there at the wire. Sizzled over the CD strip last Sunday.
#11 Z Humor - Mott expected better this year and takes the hood off.
#12 Smooth Air - Great story and glad to see him in the starting gate. That being said, he's up against it.
#13 Bob Black Jack - Will keep Big Brown company on the front end before packing it in.
#14 Monba - Gutsy victory in the Blue Grass and has an allowance win at CD. Pletcher's best shot this year and should not be ignored.
#15 Adriano - Good looking (Red) son of A.P. Indy is the most well rested participant. Prado had options.
#16 Denis of Cork - Last minute entry looks to capitalize in a big way. Had legitimate excuses in Illinois Derby and has been training lights out at CD. Great value on a very talented runner.
#17 Cowboy Cal - Ran his eye balls out in defeat to stablemate and just seems as a pace factor in this event.
#18 Recapturetheglory - Illinois Derby winner will flash some early speed before he checks out.
#19 Gayego - G2 Arkansas Derby winner proved he can handle the dirt. Dreadful post.
#20 Big Brown - Super confident connections seem to like all the attention. Not worth taking a short price from the parking lot. Pass

Top 5

#9 Pyro
#16 Denis of Cork
#10 Colonel John
#4 Court Vision
#14 Monba

Oaks/Derby Double - 6 8 11 / 9 16

Good Racing Luck