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#1
04-01-2008, 07:46 PM
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Tomlinson Ratings for Derby Contenders
Here are the Tomslinson Ratings for all contenders in future pool 3. Just food for thought. . .
Adriano - 342 Z Fortune - 336 Big Brown - 316 Salute the Sarge - 315 War Pass - 314 Colonel John - 313 Smooth Air - 309 Tomcito - 308 Big Truck - 306 Court Vision - 306 Cool Coal Man - 289 Pyro - 286 Yankee Bravo - 280 Denis of Cork - 279 Atoned - 278 My Pal Charlie - 275 Blackberry Road - 272 Gayego - 256 Bob Black Jack - 243 El Gato Malo - 238 Tale of Ekati - 236 Visionaire - 202 Liberty Bull - 183 
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#2
04-01-2008, 07:48 PM
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can you in detail explain what a tomlinson number is ? i thought it had something to do with a off track, i guess i was wrong .
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#3
04-01-2008, 07:56 PM
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They have numbers for mud breeding, turf breeding, and distance breeding. These are for 1 1/4 miles+.
More info: http://www.drf.com/misc/tomlinson.html Last edited by hockey2315 : 04-01-2008 at 08:06 PM.
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#4
04-01-2008, 08:00 PM
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liberty bull my bud longshot............
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#6
04-01-2008, 08:05 PM
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#7
04-01-2008, 08:10 PM
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#8
04-01-2008, 08:12 PM
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#9
04-01-2008, 09:39 PM
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#10
04-01-2008, 10:12 PM
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these numbers have him on the bottom half of that list, im assuming thats not a good thing,
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#11
04-01-2008, 11:09 PM
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#12
04-02-2008, 04:43 AM
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#13
04-02-2008, 08:51 AM
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The DRF's explanation page of what the numbers mean is fine, but it doesn't explain how they are derived. Basically, in terms of his distance ratings, Lee Tomlinson places a value on SIRES based on the average winning distances and winning percentage of their get. Each runner in question earns a 'Tommy' distance number that is calculated by adding 100% of the SIRES' score to 50% of the BROODMARE SIRE'S score.
Inherent then in the Tommies is the assumption that the stamina of the runner in question is influenced to a greater extent by the sire as opposed to the broodmare sire. Personally, I disagree with that premise as the breeding maxim of 'speed over stamina' is something I adhere to, and find particularly effective when evaluating Derby prospects. Remember that originally the Tommies were used to evaluate 'Mudders and Turfers'... The distance evaluator was the last addition to Lee's system and I believe while useful, are the least reliable of his numbers. The broodmare sire profile is highly influential in projecting a young runner's potential to get a distance of ground.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#14
04-02-2008, 08:56 AM
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When I see a wicked sloppy track, I definitely at least consider Tomlinson numbers.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#15
04-02-2008, 09:44 AM
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I refer to them with first turf and any races in the mud.
Question: Why is the Tomlinson number for Big Brown as high as it is when his breeding suggest(according to Lauren Stich) that he should want no part of a 1 1/4?
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#16
04-02-2008, 09:57 AM
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Guess? Boundary scores a 180 and Nureyev a 270 for stamina. That's 180 + 135 = 315... bringing up Big Brown to an OK distance score.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#17
04-02-2008, 10:07 AM
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Last edited by Kasept : 04-02-2008 at 10:20 AM.
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#19
04-02-2008, 10:29 AM
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Hes too slow for any number to matter.
__________________
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#20
04-02-2008, 10:40 AM
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I don't really disagree. I always considered him a Sprinter/Miler type so the number suprised me a bit. Maybe I am just bitter that he cost me the Magna 5 last weekend.
I think it's a little crazy that they are considering him for the Derby and I suspect they would only run him because Signature Move hasn't panned out (yet) and they seem eager to have something in the race. I guess they can prove me wrong in the Lexington.
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