Cougar Bay

NTamm1215 · #1 07-06-2008, 04:15 PM

Cougar Bay, a five year-old gelded son of Daylami trained by Barclay Tagg, is entered for 35k in the Thursday nightcap. He recently ran sixth at 25-1 in the Manhattan. He finished third in the Mac Diarmida in March and is eligible for a N2X but is entered in this N3L tag. Any of you taking the bait for 35k?

NT

Linny · #2 07-06-2008, 05:22 PM

He might be worth a bet (I haven't looked over the race, so he might NOT be too) but I wouldn't touch him in the claim box.

The Manhattan field was pretty closely bunched so he couldn't have been that far from Dancing Forever that day. Offering him for this price is a red flag. If it was $75 or so, maybe but $35k is the bottom in NY.

sumitas · #3 07-06-2008, 05:53 PM

Wasn't Optimistic Steve, an also ran in the Tampa Derby, claimed for about $25 k last year. He's done well in NY since.

pick4 · #4 07-06-2008, 09:09 PM

Maybe he belongs with 35 claimers. Cougar Bay is 2 for 22 so it's not like he's a win machine. He's been put in races where he had no business running in. At least in this race he's facing a bunch of horses who do not like to win. Couth is also in this race and he usually runs well but rarely wins. I've hit a few triples keying Couth in the 2nd and 3rd slots so I'm glad to see him here.

blackthroatedwind · #5 07-06-2008, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

He might be worth a bet (I haven't looked over the race, so he might NOT be too) but I wouldn't touch him in the claim box.

The Manhattan field was pretty closely bunched so he couldn't have been that far from Dancing Forever that day. Offering him for this price is a red flag. If it was $75 or so, maybe but $35k is the bottom in NY.

The only part I disagree with is that he might be worth a bet. He is clearly a horse to avoid. Obviously if you play the Pick-4, and are using horses at decent prices in the other legs, you may want to protect with him, but this is specifically the kind of horse people should avoid at the windows ( especially given his likely short price ).

I recommend taking a look at Tagg's numbers first time for a tag. While I got burned by Stormy Kiss earlier at the Belmont meet, she demonstrated the next time that taking a short price in this situation is a mistake. Now, Tagg has many more horses than he used to, which does change things, but I would say this is a horse to run as far away from as possible financially.