Declans Moon back today

Gander · #1 07-16-2006, 10:07 AM

Thought I would talk about this very intriguing race, albeit only 5 horses.

Yeshesapistol has clearly went off form but has been training well for O'Neill, I think this horse is probably the best value in the race as if he ever runs back to a couple races a few months back, he beats this field and his price is the most generous out of the 3 contenders, probably at around 3/1.

Areyoutalkingtome to me is the most logical winner in this short field and figures to benefit the most from a potential duel on the lead. But he hasnt exactly been a win machine the last 2 years, and tends to hang on the money. Hard to get excited as a win bet at a price which figures to be around 8/5.

Declans Moon to me needs a race and his price will be around even money. Throwout that one monster win at Delmar and his other wins are good but nothing that could beat the top 2 horses if they are on their games today which I think will be the case.

I think the play is to box the exacta of Yeshesapistol and Areyoutalkingtome, and if the price is overly geneorus, take a shot on Yeshesapistol for the win. He only needs to break on top and remember who he was a few months ago to lead these from start to finish.

Good luck!

#2 07-16-2006, 10:16 AM

This is the one I am really interested in today. The Belmont feature with Anew and Train, the other.

Gander · #3 07-16-2006, 10:26 AM

Who do you fancy? I mean you almost have to play against Declans Moon, dont you?

#4 07-16-2006, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Who do you fancy? I mean you almost have to play against Declans Moon, dont you?

Can't see betting the race. 5 horse field with 3 short prices, doesn't make sense.

I will be betting Anew today if he has any value. I need 5-2 or better.

Gander · #5 07-16-2006, 10:36 AM

I predict the odds in the Tom Fool:

Silver Train- Even money
Anew- 5/2
War Plan- 4/1
Sir Greeley- 10/1
Big Apple Daddy- 12/1
Voodoo- 15/1
Mach Speed- 40/1

Rupert Pupkin · #6 07-16-2006, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Thought I would talk about this very intriguing race, albeit only 5 horses.

Yeshesapistol has clearly went off form but has been training well for O'Neill, I think this horse is probably the best value in the race as if he ever runs back to a couple races a few months back, he beats this field and his price is the most generous out of the 3 contenders, probably at around 3/1.

Areyoutalkingtome to me is the most logical winner in this short field and figures to benefit the most from a potential duel on the lead. But he hasnt exactly been a win machine the last 2 years, and tends to hang on the money. Hard to get excited as a win bet at a price which figures to be around 8/5.

Declans Moon to me needs a race and his price will be around even money. Throwout that one monster win at Delmar and his other wins are good but nothing that could beat the top 2 horses if they are on their games today which I think will be the case.

I think the play is to box the exacta of Yeshesapistol and Areyoutalkingtome, and if the price is overly geneorus, take a shot on Yeshesapistol for the win. He only needs to break on top and remember who he was a few months ago to lead these from start to finish.

Good luck!

Considering that Ellis is 33% off the layoff, I highly doubt the horse will need a race.

Pointg5 · #7 07-16-2006, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Considering that Ellis is 33% off the layoff, I highly doubt the horse will need a race.

DM is a Champion, but that was a year and a half ago, other than Bellamy Road and Flower Alley that wasn't a great group and he didn't face those two, there's enough concern to say he's an automatic here...

Gander · #8 07-16-2006, 11:44 AM

33% off a layoff is a very misleading stat. How many of those horses have been laid off 1.5 years and havent run as an older horse? Against a field with 2 horses who have races that are consistently better than the horse who is making the start off the layoff?

Not saying its impossible but certainly nowhere near the odds that you'll have to swallow. The more I look at this race the more I like Yeshesapistol at what figures to be the only "bettable odds". Areyoutalkingtome looms huge in here but hard to take at around 8/5.

Danzig · #9 07-16-2006, 12:38 PM

ah yes, another good day for racing, with an intriguing race on each coast.

Rupert Pupkin · #10 07-16-2006, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

33% off a layoff is a very misleading stat. How many of those horses have been laid off 1.5 years and havent run as an older horse? Against a field with 2 horses who have races that are consistently better than the horse who is making the start off the layoff?

Not saying its impossible but certainly nowhere near the odds that you'll have to swallow. The more I look at this race the more I like Yeshesapistol at what figures to be the only "bettable odds". Areyoutalkingtome looms huge in here but hard to take at around 8/5.

There are two horses that are better than the horse coming off the layoff? What are you smoking? You could buy either one of those horses for $100,000. You couldn't buy DM for $1 million. DM is a Breeeder's Cup caliber horse. Ron says he is the best horse he has ever trained by far. Ron has trained a ton of Grade I horses and Ron is not one to talk up his horses.
Doug O'Neil trains the two horses that you think are better than DM. I can guarantee you that even Doug would tell you that neither of his two horses are in the league of DM. I can practically guarantee you that Doug would have never entered either of his horses in this race if he knew that DM was running. I'm sure he'd scratch them if he could but it's not easy to get a horse scratched in a 5 horse field. You actually need your vet to lie and say that there is something wrong with the horse. Don't get me wrong, guys do it but it's somewhat of a hassle. There is no way that he will be able to get both horses scratched.

Rupert Pupkin · #11 07-16-2006, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

33% off a layoff is a very misleading stat. How many of those horses have been laid off 1.5 years and havent run as an older horse? Against a field with 2 horses who have races that are consistently better than the horse who is making the start off the layoff?

Not saying its impossible but certainly nowhere near the odds that you'll have to swallow. The more I look at this race the more I like Yeshesapistol at what figures to be the only "bettable odds". Areyoutalkingtome looms huge in here but hard to take at around 8/5.

You are right that the 33% stat is misleading. If all of Ellis's horses were as good as DM, the stat would be more like 60%. Many of his horses coming off layoffs are not great horses.

Rupert Pupkin · #12 07-16-2006, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

There are two horses that are better than the horse coming off the layoff? What are you smoking? You could buy either one of those horses for $100,000. You couldn't buy DM for $1 million. DM is a Breeeder's Cup caliber horse. Ron says he is the best horse he has ever trained by far. Ron has trained a ton of Grade I horses and Ron is not one to talk up his horses.
Doug O'Neil trains the two horses that you think are better than DM. I can guarantee you that even Doug would tell you that neither of his two horses are in the league of DM. I can practically guarantee you that Doug would have never entered either of his horses in this race if he knew that DM was running. I'm sure he'd scratch them if he could but it's not easy to get a horse scratched in a 5 horse field. You actually need your vet to lie and say that there is something wrong with the horse. Don't get me wrong, guys do it but it's somewhat of a hassle. There is no way that he will be able to get both horses scratched.

It's no surprise that O'Neil scratched Areyoutalkintome. I'm sure he would scratch the other horse too if he could. That was why Ron kept it a secret that DM was running. He knew the race would never go if the other trainers knew he was running.

2Hot4TV · #13 07-16-2006, 03:13 PM

After looking at the horses in post parade, I would say that DeClans Moon is ready to roll. He went to his toes as soon as he hit the race track. He sure looks ready.

Scav · #14 07-16-2006, 03:23 PM

Now if ANYONE tells me that isn't Victor's fault, they need to be shot, that horse should have won by open lengths, didn't ask him until there was 220 yards left....didn't see the 2 coming....

2Hot4TV · #15 07-16-2006, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Now if ANYONE tells me that isn't Victor's fault, they need to be shot, that horse should have won by open lengths, didn't ask him until there was 220 yards left....didn't see the 2 coming....

Totally agree. The trainer of the winner ,Art Sherman has been on fire with sprinter this year.

#16 07-16-2006, 03:28 PM

I was abotu the say the same thing. He didn't see the Desert horse coming!

Betsy · #17 07-16-2006, 03:29 PM

Oh man, I just read that DM lost by a head -is there anything more frustrating than that? I'm glad he ran so well, though - but boy, if it's true that the jock messed up, I'm going to be extremely annoyed.

Rupert Pupkin · #18 07-16-2006, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Now if ANYONE tells me that isn't Victor's fault, they need to be shot, that horse should have won by open lengths, didn't ask him until there was 220 yards left....didn't see the 2 coming....

Victor was a little bit overconfident but he rode the horse hard the final 1/16th. I don't know if by not asking the horse at the top of the stretch if that cost him the race. It may have. I'm not sure. The thing that really cost him the race was being three-wide, head and head on the lead in :44 1/5. In hindsight, if Victor would have sat 3-4 lengths back, I think he would have won. But that's in hindsight. Victor didn't know that Desert Boom was the horse to beat. The winner came from about 6 lengths behind while DM was killing himself on the lead.

Gauchos0522 · #19 07-16-2006, 03:33 PM

Victor Ezpinoza should be shot my god that was the dumbest ride I have seen in awhile. Yes Victor a horse who has been off for a year and a half might need some urging in the stretch. Unreal

Betsy · #20 07-16-2006, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Victor was a little bit overconfident but he rode the horse hard the final 1/16th. I don't know if by not asking the horse at the top of the stretch if that cost him the race. It may have. I'm not sure. The thing that really cost him the race was being three-wide, head and head on the lead in :44 1/5. In hindsight, if Victor would have sat 3-4 lengths back, I think he would have won. But that's in hindsight. Victor didn't know that Desert Boom was the horse to beat.

That sounds like the jock's fault to me. DM has been off for over a year and you send him battling for the lead through fractions like that, 3 wide?