1/6: AQU (Carry); GP (Late P4)

[Kasept]

Aqueduct delivered a few surprises Saturday resulting in a sizeable $58k carry for Sunday's rather humdrum offering. Gulfstream has a pair of stakes again Sunday as part of the kickoff weekend and the P4 looks very inviting...

SMOOTH 'AIRS' IN HUTCH ON BIG DAY FOR NY BREEDING

Saturday's important 3yo stakes featured an unsurprising upset when Calder-based Bernie Stutts sent out nice Smooth Air to a one length victory in the Gr. II Hutcheson over DWL's Silver Edition. That pair, the 2nd and 3rd longest prices on the board, was well clear of Dale Romans' favored Halo Najib. Well-touted and well-bet sophs Big Truck (Tagg) and Coal Play (Zito) were 5th and 7th respectively and were never really involved in the affair.

As opined Saturday, Smooth Air has been a different colt for Stutts since returning from a 90 day break in November, and his two performances across the Turnpike to end '07 put him right in the mix with the higher profile runners that were trying to start their Derby Trail campaigns on the right foot. Though he isn't a stretchout candidate, the Florida-bred son of Smooth Jazz looks to have a nice future.

The victory represents the first stakes win as a sire for Buckridge Farm's (Hudson, NY) Smooth Jazz, the former Tabor-owned, A. Dutrow-trained sprinter that entered stud in 2004. Smooth Air is of course his top performer, and the victory capped a very good day for the New York Breeding program as Empire breds topped open company foes an hour earlier in Aqueduct's Count Fleet.

'MOON' SHINES BRIGHT FOR SCHOSBERG

At Ozone Park, Richie Schosberg and Albert Fried's Giant Moon ran his perfect record to 4 straight with a hard fought victory in the traditional first step towards the Wood Memorial. Todd Pletcher and Gold Square's Spanky Fischbein grudgingly yielded in deep stretch after making all the pace under Mike Luzzi with Ramon Dominguez and Giant Moon never more than a length behind him. The result was a duplication of the NYB Damon Runyon (12/9/07), only this affair featured open company in the form of Steve Klesaris' Roman Emperor (Empire Maker) and Tom Albertrani's Darley runne Barrier Reef (Mizzen Mast).

Schosberg will continue the local path with his son of Giant's Causeway, with the Whirlaway and Gotham scheduled before a Wood Memorial try. Giant Moon carved out very smooth fractions in the mile portion of the Count Fleet (:24.1, :24.1, :23.4, :24.3), a style that bodes well moving forward. The even pace also backs up Schosberg's contention that Giant Moon is the type that does exactly what's required of him to win.

As for Pletcher's Hook and Ladder ridgling, he has now been in an exacta in all seven of his career starts running his record to 2-5-0. At first blush around two turns, spunky Spanky did a good impression of King of the Roxy: a colt that isn't likely to get routes of ground, but doesn't seem to know it.

While Florida may not have produced early Derby Trail darlings Saturday, New York certainly did.


AQUEDUCT


4th: NYB-MSW, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3)

Best Value: #5 COUNT THIS SENORA 6-1
Most Likely: #6 Gullible Gal 3-1
Next Best: #2 (POE) Sweet Bama Breeze 8-5
Exotics Use: #7 Sweet Madness 8-1


5th: CLM/N1Y, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, G/S, .10 Super)

NOTE: Murderously tough conditional claimer.. Utilize earlier results as a possible clue here with several having faced Taking the Redeye (2nd race, #1a) recently.. ALSO, #11-AE Lethimthinkhesboss (4-1) a serious addition if getting into fray..

Best Value: #4 Bavarian Baron 5-1
Most Likely: #10 Military Major 9-2
Next Best: #3 That's a Given 3-1
Exotics Use: #5 Final Story 7-2 WON


6th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, DD, .10 Super)

Best Value: #4 Linda's Baby 8-1
Most Likely: #1a (POE) SCR
Next Best: #10 Linden Ave. 4-1 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Kat's Mystery 10-1


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (P3)

Best Value: #1 Runaway Star 5-2
Most Likely: #2 Cherokee Probe 2-1 WON
Next Best: #7 So Smashley 9-2
Exotics Use: #9 Two Points of Law 20-1


8th: The Ruthless, 3yo-F, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #6 Dill or No Dill 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #1 Expect the End 9-5
Next Best: #2 Carolyn's Cat 5-2


9th: CLM, 4+, 1m-70y (.10 Super)

Best Value: #2 Sweetiewheatie 5-1
Most Likely: #10 APPEALING SPEED 5-2
Next Best: #9 Jersey Giant 4-1
Exotics Use: #5 Wood Winner 9-2


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 5-6
5: 4-10
6: 4-7-10
7: 1-2-7
8: 1-2
9: 10

2x2x3x3x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 4-7-10
7: 1-2-7-9
8: 1-2
9: 9-10

3x4x2x2 = $48



GULFSTREAM

Superfectas in all... Rolling Doubles through 9th...

7th: Sabin H. (Gr. III), F&M-4+, 1m (P4, P3)

Best Value: #1 Lady Marlboro 4-1 WON-DH
Most Likely: #2 Golden Velvet 2-1 WON-DH
Next Best: #6 Mini Sermon 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Silver Knockers 6-1 4th


8th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3)

Best Value: #2 Spring Mambo 10-1 4th
Most Likely: #6 THE CAT'S AFFAIR 3-1 WON
Next Best: #12 Prime Lake 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Marianne's Dream 12-1 9th


9th: Hal's Hope H. (Gr. II), 4+, 1m

Best Value: #3 Elite Squadron 10-1 11th
Most Likely: #10 Chatain 5-2 WON
Next Best: #11 Dr. Googles Boogles 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Miner's Lamp 20-1 2nd (@ 63-1!)


10th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #6 SCR
Most Likely: #5 Anxiety 5-2 WON
Next Best: #8 Bay Ridge Tiger 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Dawn of the Sun 5-1 10th


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-2
8: 6-12
9: 3-10
10: 1-2-5-[6 SCR]-9-12

2x2x2x6 = $48 ($1 P4 pays $54.20 TWICE -- $108.40)


Good luck!
Steve

[declansharbor]

Steve,
I'm guessing that you find Timber Reserve in over his head today. That neck win over Xchanger wasn't enough to warrant an exotics use?? haha... I agree that it is Chatain's race to lose, but with no value attached.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Steve,
I'm guessing that you find Timber Reserve in over his head today. That neck win over Xchanger wasn't enough to warrant an exotics use?? haha... I agree that it is Chatain's race to lose, but with no value attached.

Using Timber Reserve on backup P4 play.. Needs to step up considerably to win. G/L today Mike!

[hockey2315]

Steve- Spring Mambo is the 2 in Race 8 @ GP. . .

[Kasept]

AQU SCRATCHED FOR P6...

4
3 (poe) Karakorum Playmate Early

5
2 Statesman Early
6 King of Jazz Early

6
1A Catchuptothesun Early
9 Russian Prospector Early

7
8 Fiddlers Princess Early

9
11 Just Le Facts Early

[Kasept]

GULFSTREAM PARK CHANGES

PARTLY SUNNY , NICE , 75

TRACK // GOOD
TURF // YEILDING

RAIL AT 84 FEET
P6 CARRYOVER $15,737.00

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1 #3 FIRST TIME LASIX

2 SCR. #10 GO CHELY GO

4 JOCKEY #2 JR VELAZQUEZ
4 SCR. #12 LADY BUDDHA
4 JOCKEY #13 J. CHEVEZ
4 SCR. #14 TESSITURA

5 SCR. #3 CATMEIFYOUCAN

6 SCR. #2 KING PALANCE
6 JOCKEY #7 R . DOUGLAS
6 JOCKEY #9 J. BRAVO
6 SCR. #14 FIRE RIDGE

7 SCR. #5 CINDY'S MOM

8 SCR. #7 AWESOME FROLIC
8 #10 FIRST TIME LASIX

9 SCR. #4 NOTGONAGEETEMTODAY
9 SCR. #5 COMMENTATOR
9 JOCKEY #7 JR ALVARADO

10 SCR. #6 PRIVATE REVIEW
10 SCR. # 7 MEMORABLE MICHELLE
10 JOCKEY #11 D. BORACO
10 SCR. #13 OH SO CYBIL
10 SCR. #14 GOLDEN STACK

[KY_Sasquash]

I agree that The Cat's Affair is the horse to beat in the 8th, but I'd take a long look at Primelake for Mott and would definitely include on the win end. She has the right running style for the course with the rail out, should be able to get over and not get caught too wide and the horse that beat her in her last, Alwejeeha, ran a very good race in the Tropical Park Oaks:steadied first turn, then real wide on the 2nd turn, finished well full of run, absolutely couldve won the race with a better trip.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

I agree that The Cat's Affair is the horse to beat in the 8th, but I'd take a long look at Primelake for Mott and would definitely include on the win end. She has the right running style for the course with the rail out, should be able to get over and not get caught too wide and the horse that beat her in her last, Alwejeeha, ran a very good race in the Tropical Park Oaks:steadied first turn, then real wide on the 2nd turn, finished well full of run, absolutely couldve won the race with a better trip.

KY,

OMG... THX!! Totally agree.. just looked back and the 12 was part of my initial view of the race Friday. At the top of the page I wrote '612' and mistook the '12' part for 1 and 2... But it was actually the 12! (A new low..)

[jms62]

Alive to 10-5-4-2 in AQU p4... Go Dynergy!!!

[jms62]

OMFG NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!! !!!!!!!

5890755278903u890

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by Kasept

KY,

OMG... THX!! Totally agree.. just looked back and the 12 was part of my initial view of the race Friday. At the top of the page I wrote '612' and mistook the '12' part for 1 and 2... But it was actually the 12! (A new low..)

She was there after a wide trip and then had some trouble in down the stretch but I dont think she would have had enough to go on with the top 2 finishers.

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by jms62

Alive to 10-5-4-2 in AQU p4... Go Dynergy!!!

Tough one. Dynergy made quite a run at it.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

SMOOTH 'AIRS' IN HUTCH ON BIG DAY FOR NY BREEDING

Saturday's important 3yo stakes featured an unsurprising upset when Calder-based Bernie Stutts sent out nice Smooth Air to a one length victory in the Gr. II Hutcheson over DWL's Silver Edition. That pair, the 2nd and 3rd longest prices on the board, was well clear of Dale Romans' favored Halo Najib. Well-touted and well-bet sophs Big Truck (Tagg) and Coal Play (Zito) were 5th and 7th respectively and were never really involved in the affair.

As opined Saturday, Smooth Air has been a different colt for Stutts since returning from a 90 day break in November, and his two performances across the Turnpike to end '07 put him right in the mix with the higher profile runners that were trying to start their Derby Trail campaigns on the right foot. Though he isn't a stretchout candidate, the Florida-bred son of Smooth Jazz looks to have a nice future.

The victory represents the first stakes win as a sire for Buckridge Farm's (Hudson, NY) Smooth Jazz, the former Tabor-owned, A. Dutrow-trained sprinter that entered stud in 2004. Smooth Air is of course his top performer, and the victory capped a very good day for the New York Breeding program as Empire breds topped open company foes an hour earlier in Aqueduct's Count Fleet.

I singled him in the P4, not expecting him to go off at that price. Hit the ALL button in the confusing off-the-turf last, only to get the favorite at 4/5 for $1600 whom I had no interest in at 3-47. Tough to complain about a score like that but when the willpays are 5 digits to other logicals it's disappointing.

Nice job on the P4 today, Steve.