m/l odds

[Samarta]

I wanted to get some thoughts on everyone's opinion on the m/l.....two of them jumped out for me....One was Circular Quay at 8 and the other was Hard Spun at 15. I just have never been a fan of Circular Quay....granted he looked good last time out, but I just don't see it. The other is Hard Spun. Maybe Battaglia thinks he ran his race this past Monday. Who knows....I was also a little surprised at Tiago.....everything else imo was pretty much expected.....thoughts?

[slotdirt]

30-1 on Teuflesberger is low. Should be 50-1 or more.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Storm in May 30-1???? at least 50 or more!

[AeWingnut]

1 Sedgefield 50-1
2 Curlin 7-2
3 Zanjero 30-1
4 Storm In May 30-1
5 Imawildandcrazyguy 50-1
6 Cowtown Cat 20-1
7 Street Sense 4-1
8 Hard Spun 15-1
9 Liquidity 30-1
10 Teuflesberg 30-1
11 Bwana Bull 50-1
12 Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-1
13 Sam P. 20-1
14 Scat Daddy 10-1
15 Tiago 15-1
16 Circular Quay 8-1
17 Stormello 30-1
18 Any Given Saturday 12-1
19 Dominican 20-1
20 Great Hunter 15-1

[hi_im_god]

133.35% on that morning line.

A real line would be 100% minus takeout.

They never seem to make anyone 99-1 as they should. It's a shame that one of the most important races of the year gets a completely bogus m/l. I think this is one Derby tradition we could do without.

[AeWingnut]

I find it strange that Dominican is longer odds than Great Hunter
and that
Scat Daddy is longer than Nobiz Like Shobiz

it doesn't matte but why is Teuflesberg longer than Sam P.?

[jman5581]

they both have a win over the surface, but Tberger's running style is less likely to win. That's probably the rationale...

[Rudeboyelvis]

Hard Spun at 15-1 is a steal....doubt that holds

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

but why is Teuflesberg longer than Sam P.?

The question of the day...I can't for the life of me, find any attraction to this play. He hasn't proven a thing....




Which more than likely means bet him to win big

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

The question of the day...I can't for the life of me, find any attraction to this play. He hasn't proven a thing....




Which more than likely means bet him to win big

not betting any of them
just don't understand the rationale behind the odds

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

133.35% on that morning line.

A real line would be 100% minus takeout.

They never seem to make anyone 99-1 as they should. It's a shame that one of the most important races of the year gets a completely bogus m/l. I think this is one Derby tradition we could do without.

For a 16% takeout, the odds, converted to probability with Prob=1/(1+odds), should add to 119%. I'm calculating 136% from this "ML", which would be fine if the takeout were 26%!

If he kept it to 119%, he'd have a tough time making Curlin and Street Sense so low.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

133.35% on that morning line.

A real line would be 100% minus takeout.

They never seem to make anyone 99-1 as they should. It's a shame that one of the most important races of the year gets a completely bogus m/l. I think this is one Derby tradition we could do without.

This is what is so crazy to me. Cant they at least try and make it close to 100%. There is no effort to do so. Maybe its looked at as disrespectful. But it is disrespectful that some of these are running.

Street Sense will be your public betting favorite at 9/2. I will go with Curlin next at 5-1. Nobiz next at 6-1. This will leave plenty of good prices for the folks that like other horses. Nobiz could be longer.

Curlin at 7/2 and SS at 4-1 Nobiz 5-1 would leave great prices for the others. It is very interesting to watch the odds change though. Sometimes the public will just pile on a favorite.

My four horses for a win/place bet are still:
Scat Daddy
Great Hunter
Hard Spun
Any Given Saturday

I will now have to reconcile Post position with best odds to pick one of the above.