Jeremy Plonk on Polytrack

[brianwspencer]

I read this on Plonk's Countdown to the Crown page this afternoon. I'm torn as to what to think of it -- as part of me thinks that he's halfway right, but part of me thinks he's completely off base. I think that Keeneland has a definite closing bias, but I do agree with him when he says that this track eliminates the speed bias that horses have been enjoying for years. I just don't think it's as extreme as he says it is, making it sound like there is no bias at all. Tired frontrunners don't account for a 3% win rate on the front end. Thoughts on how he frames it?

First, tune out all griping and moaning about Polytrack and a "closer's" bias. It's absolutely impossible for me to come up with an explanation for how spotting any athlete a distance of ground is advantageous (other than drafting into wind - and that has no bearing on what's under the horses hooves). Would Jeff Gordon be better off starting in Row 14 or the pole position? Would Champ Bailey have a better chance of covering Randy Moss (the OTHER Randy Moss, with gold teeth) if he gave him a 10-yard head start? Would you be better off in the company picnic's burlap-bag race if Stewie from accounting was given a four-hop headstart? Of course not. It's not even common sensical.

What Polytrack does is take away the ADVANTAGE that speed horses have enjoyed for decades in American racing. When you skip over hard-packed, dirt pavement and your feet don't go but a credit-card's depth into the soil, you tend not to get tired. It's that whole jogging on the beach analogy. Without this former advantage, forward-placed horses now have their masks taken off, and must actually be able to run all-out for the required distance. To further the sports comparison, aren't the best teams always the ones who play better in the fourth quarter, not the first? Don't you want a boxer who can last 12 rounds in a heavyweight title bout, not punch himself out in Round 3? Isn't Kobayashi the best Nathan's Hot Dog eater because he can pound that 200th footlonger as fast as the first? (Maybe that one was a bit much...but you get the point.)

So I'm here to say that Polytrack, as frustrating as it may seem to get a grip on given the years of past peformance lines looking us all in the face, actually puts the best horse in the winner's circle. Get used to it. Accept it. And finally learn that class will trump speed at any serious distance of ground, no matter how many books were written on the latter. Remember this: you can write a handicapping book about numbers easily, they're quantifiable. Explaining class and quality are subjective, and difficult to communicate to the masses. That's why you don't see nearly as much written about class in racing as compared to speed. And that fact doesn't mean speed is more important, no matter how many used books you can pick up about it at Amazon.com.