derby odds

[jpops757]

This is another year where it appear that whoever you like you will be able to get just as good if not better odd on derby day, as opposed to the future pools. With four or five preps still remaining It looks as if all of the contenders has a wart or 2, You realy have to look closely to find some but we have all heard some on the comments on this forum. Even with Scat Daddys nice racce Sat5/1 will probably be as low as he will go. Street Sense, Nobiz and Great Hunter are the only colts that will possibly be under 3/1 at post time. Entrants are comming from so many direction and varried training snd preperation. I just dont see a strong favorite even with the major preps that are remaining.

[robfla]

i dont think any horse will be under 3/1 at post time. guessing the fav will be aroung 5 or 6:1

to me, any horse under 35/1 in the future pools 1 or 2 doesnt get my money until post time.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by robfla

i dont think any horse will be under 3/1 at post time. guessing the fav will be aroung 5 or 6:1

I think that if Street Sense romps in the Blue Grass, he'll be under 3/1.

I don't see Nobiz beating Circular Quay, so he probably won't go off at below 5-1. Street Sense though could very easily be a 2-1 favorite. He obviously loves Churchill (108 Beyer) and even the skeptics like me are beginning to think he might be something special. The horse he just beat might just be the number 2 3yr old out there.

[brianwspencer]

I think Street Sense or Great Hunter could go off under 3-1 with any sort of impressive performance in the Blue Grass, though more likely Street Sense, because in regards to his BCJ win -- all of the same angles are going to be there that were there on BC day.

[slotdirt]

When looking at the favorite, four times in the "oughts" since 2000 has a Kentucky Derby favorite been below 3-1: Bellamy Road (around 5/2), Empire Maker (5/2), Point Given (around 2-1) and Fusaichi Pegasus (a little less than 5/2). In that bunch we had a blowout winner of the Wood, the second coming according to the pedigree experts, the second coming according to Bob Baffert, and a crazy son of Mr. Prospector.

Is there a 3-1 and under type horse in this year's field? Who knows?

[tycharles01]

No horses will go off at 3/1 or under!!!!!

Sure there are some nice horses(Street Sense,Great Hunter,CQ,Scat Daddy)

You maybe get a big bet on 1 of them but still best odds will be a 5/1 or maybe a 9/2 on 1 or 2 of those horses


Just too many horses running.

[lemoncrush]

Too early to really tell...
Blowout wins in any of the big preps left will sway things, but all things being equal, I see it similar to last year with several lukewarm favorites hovering around 9-2 and 7-1.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Benevolus

I don't see Nobiz beating Circular Quay, so he probably won't go off at below 5-1. Street Sense though could very easily be a 2-1 favorite. He obviously loves Churchill (108 Beyer) and even the skeptics like me are beginning to think he might be something special. The horse he just beat might just be the number 2 3yr old out there.

I agree about SS. All this stressing him always getting the perfect trip leads me to beleive he is good enough to carve a perfect trip. Curlin is the horse that appears to have the raw talent o beat this bunch but as all will say not enough foundation.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by robfla

i dont think any horse will be under 3/1 at post time. guessing the fav will be aroung 5 or 6:1

to me, any horse under 35/1 in the future pools 1 or 2 doesnt get my money until post time.

Sometimes I really wish this were a betting exchange. I'd be willing to bet major money that the fav is under 5-1.

--Dunbar

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Sometimes I really wish this were a betting exchange. I'd be willing to bet major money that the fav is under 5-1.

--Dunbar

I agree. Something would have to seriously go wrong with Street Sense for him not to be under 5-1 on Derby day.

[slotdirt]

Note that of the four 3-1 or under horses since 2000, only one has won the race (Fusaichi Pegasus). If Street Sense is under 3-1, I'd say there are a lot of bad betters out there.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Sometimes I really wish this were a betting exchange. I'd be willing to bet major money that the fav is under 5-1.

--Dunbar

I'm not so sure they will be. There's a lot of horses that will attract attention this year; if Street Sense blows their doors off in the Blue Grass he probably will be, Nobiz with a big performance in the Wood might be, but if Hard Spun or AGS do they'd probably be right at 5 or 6-1, same thing with CQ in the Wood.

All and all this is going to be a fantastic Derby.

[Thunder Gulch]

Street Sense is the only one that could get down below 3-1, and it would take another big effort to knock him down there.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I think that if Street Sense romps in the Blue Grass, he'll be under 3/1.

if he even wins the bluegrass you'd have to think he'd be a solid 2-1 favorite at the least....

[randallscott35]

He's not winning the Blue Grass. He won't be second.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Note that of the four 3-1 or under horses since 2000, only one has won the race (Fusaichi Pegasus). If Street Sense is under 3-1, I'd say there are a lot of bad betters out there.

i disagree with that, how would they be bad bettors ? he already ran huge at churchill.... if he wins the bluegrass and comes into the derby 2-2 on the year and defeating the likes of any given satuday, great hunter and hard spun then i'd say he almost definitly be under 3-1

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

He's not winning the Blue Grass. He won't be second.

who do u like in the bluegrass ?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

who do u like in the bluegrass ?

Will wait to see who is in there for sure.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

at this point i like hard spun-street sense