Proof of BC "Golden Rail"?

[hockey2315]

After Round Pond's race today I got to thinking about the BC winners on dirt this year and how they've performed after the BC:

Dreaming of Anna- Beaten on both dirt and turf- hasn't looked nearly as good as last year

Street Sense- Has yet to race again- mixed reports of his current condition

Thor's Echo- Won at LRL and then lost badly in Dubai if I'm not mistaken

Round Pond- Didn't run at all today.

Invasor- Great race in the Donn. . . Don't think he had a rail trip in the Derby.

Now obviously, there are other factors that must be taken into consideration. And I also can't remember at the moment which horses trips could actually be considered aided by the "golden rail."

But this seems interesting and worth noting to me. . .

Any opinions?

[randallscott35]

To me there was never a question about the golden rail. It was in full effect. No track ruins big days more than Churchill. None.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

After Round Pond's race today I got to thinking about the BC winners on dirt this year and how they've performed after the BC:

Dreaming of Anna- Beaten on both dirt and turf- hasn't looked nearly as good as last year

Street Sense- Has yet to race again- mixed reports of his current condition

Thor's Echo- Won at LRL and then lost badly in Dubai if I'm not mistaken

Round Pond- Didn't run at all today.

Invasor- Great race in the Donn. . . Don't think he had a rail trip in the Derby.

Now obviously, there are other factors that must be taken into consideration. And I also can't remember at the moment which horses trips could actually be considered aided by the "golden rail."

But this seems interesting and worth noting to me. . .

Any opinions?

You are using Thor's Echo's loss in Dubai as evidence of the golden rail? That's a stretch. You should also point out that the race he won at LRL was the G1 De Francis. Obviously the rail was the place to be on BC Day but I don't think it was anywhere near the magnitude people have made it out to be. I don't see how using races from three to four months later provides much evidence of the golden rail. Round Pond's races prior to the BC were much more indicative of her form than today's debacle.

[robfla]

i also think that trainers have their horses cranked up as much as possible for the big day, causing a letdown the next time they run. Only a very good horse can duplicate big efforts. i have been betting against breeders cup participants in their next start for several years and it is very profitable.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You are using Thor's Echo's loss in Dubai as evidence of the golden rail? That's a stretch. You should also point out that the race he won at LRL was the G1 De Francis. Obviously the rail was the place to be on BC Day but I don't think it was anywhere near the magnitude people have made it out to be. I don't see how using races from three to four months later provides much evidence of the golden rail. Round Pond's races prior to the BC were much more indicative of her form than today's debacle.

I mentioned that there are other factors that must be taken into consideration. . . Just something I noticed. . . Thanks for your opinion

[blackthroatedwind]

Obviously the rail on BC was souped up.....but Thor's Echo wasn't on the rail.

[brianwspencer]

One of the cool things is how formful the BC Juvy has come back for this years 3yo group. Your top five finishers were Street Sense (who we'll find out about maybe next week), Circular Quay (who has come back to run two big ones), Great Hunter (came back in a great return), Scat Daddy (Fountain of Youth winner), and Stormello (dug in like a mad horse in the FOY).

It's really strange how that race has come back.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

One of the cool things is how formful the BC Juvy has come back for this years 3yo group. Your top four finishers were Street Sense (who we'll find out about maybe next week), Circular Quay (who has come back to run two big ones), Great Hunter (came back in a great return), Scat Daddy (Fountain of Youth winner), and Stormello (dug in like a mad horse in the FOY).

It's really strange how that race has come back.

It will be scary if Street Sense follows suit and runs back big.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

One of the cool things is how formful the BC Juvy has come back for this years 3yo group. Your top five finishers were Street Sense (who we'll find out about maybe next week), Circular Quay (who has come back to run two big ones), Great Hunter (came back in a great return), Scat Daddy (Fountain of Youth winner), and Stormello (dug in like a mad horse in the FOY).

It's really strange how that race has come back.

Not too bad for a crop that is viewed to be pretty average....so who is the best up to this point?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Not too bad for a crop that is viewed to be pretty average....so who is the best up to this point?

I dunno who I like best, though I'm sticking with Street Sense because I said I would -- until he proves me wrong with a race.

I just wonder if maybe the Juvy seemed somehow flawed based on the track condition, and that it might not be a case of no other horses stepping up (with obvious exceptions, Nobiz, Any Given..., etc etc) -- maybe we just saw the best of them in the Juvenile that time around.

We'll see, I am trying to not extrapolate too much from the little fact I posted, just thought it was interesting just how well that race has held up so far in the Prep season.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

It will be scary if Street Sense follows suit and runs back big.

He is finished.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

He is finished.

Finished with what?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Finished with what?

As I said in November he will never be the same again. He isn't in the gate on Derby day either.

Let me just add that predicting the juvenile winner is finished is a bold prediction considering what's happened with past winners.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

As I said in November he will never be the same again. He isn't in the gate on Derby day either.

based on what?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

based on what?

Search my Street Sense article from November...All the goodies are inside.

[KY_Sasquash]

He's not finished. Saw him the other day and he looked awesome. He's started working really well. We'll get a good indication next weekend of how "finished" he is.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

He is finished.

That seems like an odd prediction to me. Considering that both Street Cry (sire) and Dixieland Band (boodmare sire) improved with age (both were graded stakes winners at age 4) why are you assuming that this colt peaked at 2?
Considering that the colts this one beat in the BC have performed quite well - as brianwspencer pointed out - and he seems to be training decently, it seems strange to say he is finished.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

He's not finished. Saw him the other day and he looked awesome. He's started working really well. We'll get a good indication next weekend of how "finished" he is.

La La La. He may win that race, at least he should. But 2 preps? Why? B/c he's ouchy. same reason he needed wraps in his 4th start of his career.

[zippyneedsawin]

I'd be surprised if the top five finishers of last year's Juvy are all in the starting gate come the first saturday in may. Sadly, Injuries always creep up.