4/9: Keeneland (5th-11th; X-C P5); Aqueduct (7th-11th)

[Kasept]

KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: Commonwealth (G3), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

A bit uneasy with Nashville as even money prop with best efforts obviously dominant, but egg-laying on full display.. notably at this trip in '21 Malibu. Saez suits him though and he looks to be on an easy-ish lead. Prevalence a neat number and figures to be propped outside..

Best Value: #10 Prevalence 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #5 Nashville 1-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 O Besos 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Endorsed 8-1 8th


6th: Appalachian (G2), 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Spendarella 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #4 Dolce Zel 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 An Agent Mistake 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Skims 6-1 3rd


KEE $3 All Turf P3 Grid:

6: 3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 6-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x3x3 = 18 x $3 = $54


7th: Madison (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Just One Time 8-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #5 Bell's the One 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Center Aisle 12-1 9th
Super Add: #1 Cilla 20-1 6th


8th: Shakertown (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (X-C P5, P4, P3, DD)

Cross Country P5 starts here..

Best Value: #3 Barraza 6-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Golden Pal 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Gear Jockey 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Filo Di Arianna 12-1 10th


Cross Country P5:

KEE 8: 3-5-10 (A), 9-11 (B), - (C) ~ Shakertown
AQU 8: 1-3-6 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C) ~ Wood Memorial
KEE 9: 4-10 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Blue Grass
AQU 9: 1-8 (A), 4 (B), 7 ~ Carter
AQU 10: 5 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Gazelle

Simple (A+B): 5x5x2x3x1 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 3x3x2x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x3x2x1x1 = 18 x .50 = $9 (A-A-A-C-A)


9th: Blue Grass (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Don't have any clever notions on the win end, but there is no shortage of exotics players that can make the tri/super sing. Golden Glider (20-1) has made incremental progress which can portend an explosive forward move..

Most Likely: #4 Zandon 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #10 Smile Happy 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Golden Glider 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Emmanuel 9-2 3rd


P5 Grid:

5: 5-10 (A), 11 (B), 8 (C)
6: 3 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
7: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), 1-3-6 (C)
8: 3-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x3x2 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $9 (C-A-A-A-A) + $18 (A-A-C-A-A)

$0.50 Pick 5 (10/3/4,10/7,10/4) Paid $84.60 (A-A-A-A-A)


P5 Grid:

6: 3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-4-5 (A), 1-3-6 (B), - (C)
8: 3-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/4,10/7,10/4) Paid $21.90 (A-A-A-A)


10th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 8.5f (DD)

Best Value: #1 (POE) Suki 8-1 8th/7th
Next Best: #5 Temper Time 7-2 WON ($12.40)
Exotics Use: #10 Miss Imperial SCR
Super Add: #4 Illiogami 7-2 4th


11th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 5.5f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Souper Dormy 6-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Momos 7-2 11th
Exotics Use: #6 Charles Chrome 5-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Artemus Citylimits 7-2 2nd


P5 Grid:

7: 2-4-5 (A), 1-3-6 (B), - (C)
8: 3-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1 (A), 5 (B), 4-10/SCR (C)
11: 7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x3x2x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $36 (A-A-A-C-A)


P4 Grid:

8: 3-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-5 (A), 4-10/SCR (B), - (C)
11: 7-10 (A), 6-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12



AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: Danger's Hour, 4+, 1m-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 City Man 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #7 Price Talk 8-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Value Proposition 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Rinaldi 5-2 7th


8th: Wood Memorial (G2), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Three here have already negotiated 9f successfully (Mo Donegal, Early Voting, Skippylongstocking) and that goes a long way in what feels like a more closely matched group than tote may indicate. Early Voting, Morello and Barese enter fray unbeaten. Pletcher sends Mo Donegal, Golden Code and 4/0-4-0 maiden Long Term who is faster on Thoro-Graph than his stablemates. Not sure any super combination of 4 is unreasonable..

Most Likely: #3 Early Voting 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Skippylongstocking 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Mo Donegal 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Barese 8-1 5th


9th: Carter H. (G1), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Speaker's Corner figures tough with anything close to the Florida form, but some pace pressure could materialize which could crack door open for stalking Reinvestment or Mind Control (now with add Rosario goodness)..

Most Likely: #8 Speaker's Corner 8-5 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #1 Reinvestment Risk 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Mind Control 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Drafted 15-1 5th


10th: Gazelle (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (DD)

Your Kentucky Oaks lineup is already eye-popping with Kathleen O., Secret Oath, Echo Zulu, Yuugiri, Hidden Connection and the addition of Nest (92 Beyer) yesterday.. Today, Venti Valentine gets her chance to enhance a cast that's already more compelling than Derby..

Most Likely: #5 Venti Valentine 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Nostalgic 9-2 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #6 Classy Edition 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Morning Matcha 8-1 6th


11th: Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f

As tweeted Friday, this is arguably the day's best stake with 9 of the 10 conceivable as a winner. Was ready to be 100% against returning Wit, but the way the barn brought Nest back yesterday in Ashland gives pause. And take note that Midlantic invaders Scaramouche (20-1) and Outkissed (30-1) are no doormats. In fact, one of the last times trainer Robby Bailes and owner Marshall Dowell (Outkissed) visited Aqueduct for a major stake, they won the Withers with Scrappy T (!) ahead of the incredible Preakness confrontation with Afleet Alex..

Best Value: #7 Outkissed 30-1 10th
Next Best: #6 Highly Respected 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Life Is Great 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Scaramouche 20-1 5th


P5 Grid:

7: 1-3-7 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
8: 1-3-6 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
9: 8 (A), - (B), 1-4-7 (C)
10: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 6-7-8-10 (A), 5-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x5x1x1x6 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 3x3x1x1x4 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x3x3x1x4 = 108 x .50 = $54


P4 Grid:

8: 1-3-6 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
9: 8 (A), - (B), 1-4-7 (C)
10: 5 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
11: 5-6-7-8-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x2x6 = $60 ($30 for .50)
All A's: 3x1x1x6 = $18 ($9 for .50)
Backup: 3x3x1x6 = 54 x .50 = $27

$1 Pick 4 (1/6,8/3/2,3,9) Paid $204.00 ($102.00 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve