Put Your Fingers Where your Mouth Is

[King Glorious]

I got this idea from something Blackthroatwind said to me the other day. He asked me how much do I bet and if I bet enough to where it would hurt when I lose. Well, I want to see who's willing to take a strong stand for their convictions. Maybe this won't take off but I figured I'd try it just to see what happens. The point here is to post what u think is a bold prediction for the BC and if it doesn't happen, u stay off the board for a week. I said on another thread that I don't think Invasor breaks the top four in the Classic. Well, how strong do I feel about that? Am I willing to impose a sort of "self ban" if he does? Now this is not my stand against bet but an example. I say that u can chose as many as u want to. Any takers?

[randallscott35]

King, I like you but that is a very dumb idea. Nobody, including you, has to feel like they have to leave the board for a self imposed amount of time for getting a horse race wrong. We are all trying to win when we get right down to it....When we bet, we are taking the stand. No need to do it here. No pissing contests, and I'm sure Andy would tell you the same thing.

[blackthroatedwind]

I agree Randall and in fact King's " idea " is not at all what I was referring to when I asked him that question ( and I think he understands that ). My point in that question was to differentiate between rash internet opinions and ones someone is willing to back up at the windows and for a sum that can at least cause a little pain if lost.

It really gets to how I feel in general about people who give handicapping opinions, in that they HAVE to bet some amount that is real to them, as nobody will ever learn anything about playing this game without some very real gambling. Picking losers on paper may hurt your ego, but betting them will hurt your wallet, and is the only possible way someone will learn to correct errors and further their " opinion ".

In order to win you have to learn how not to lose.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree Randall and in fact King's " idea " is not at all what I was referring to when I asked him that question ( and I think he understands that ). My point in that question was to differentiate between rash internet opinions and ones someone is willing to back up at the windows and for a sum that can at least cause a little pain if lost.

It really gets to how I feel in general about people who give handicapping opinions, in that they HAVE to bet some amount that is real to them, as nobody will ever learn anything about playing this game without some very real gambling. Picking losers on paper may hurt your ego, but betting them will hurt your wallet, and is the only possible way someone will learn to correct errors and further their " opinion ".

In order to win you have to learn how not to lose.

That's exactly the point of this proposal. I'm trying to differentiate between those two types of people also. U say someone that's willing to back it up at the windows but I think that in some way, not being able to post on the forum might hurt some of them just as much, maybe more in some cases. U say that u have to bet something that is real to them. For some, this is as real as it gets.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree Randall and in fact King's " idea " is not at all what I was referring to when I asked him that question ( and I think he understands that ). My point in that question was to differentiate between rash internet opinions and ones someone is willing to back up at the windows and for a sum that can at least cause a little pain if lost.

It really gets to how I feel in general about people who give handicapping opinions, in that they HAVE to bet some amount that is real to them, as nobody will ever learn anything about playing this game without some very real gambling. Picking losers on paper may hurt your ego, but betting them will hurt your wallet, and is the only possible way someone will learn to correct errors and further their " opinion ".

In order to win you have to learn how not to lose.

now thats a great lesson..well said..

[King Glorious]

Well, nobody else has to do it but I feel like it's sort of a way of finding out who's just typing things to be "heard" and who really believes what they are saying. He seems to think I'm so stupid in the way that I think and that I only say half the things I say because there is nothing to lose by typing crazy on a forum. Even though it's not really a loss, I still will feel some of the hurt he asked me about if I can't type on here. So I'm willing to back my convictions in this way. Just curious to see if anyone else is. Some people on here seem to think they are so much better at figuring this game out than everyone else. We all know that basically any so called "system" anyone uses, we still pretty much all come out with a winning % between 30-40%. Most of us are right around the 35% and it just pisses me off when some people post their opinions and others tell them how insane they are, as if they are so much more professional. So I want to see who will put up or shut up.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Well, nobody else has to do it but I feel like it's sort of a way of finding out who's just typing things to be "heard" and who really believes what they are saying. He seems to think I'm so stupid in the way that I think and that I only say half the things I say because there is nothing to lose by typing crazy on a forum. Even though it's not really a loss, I still will feel some of the hurt he asked me about if I can't type on here. So I'm willing to back my convictions in this way. Just curious to see if anyone else is. Some people on here seem to think they are so much better at figuring this game out than everyone else. We all know that basically any so called "system" anyone uses, we still pretty much all come out with a winning % between 30-40%. Most of us are right around the 35% and it just pisses me off when some people post their opinions and others tell them how insane they are, as if they are so much more professional. So I want to see who will put up or shut up.

You don't understand what I am trying to say. What I was trying to say to you was that if you were forced to bet REAL money, a sum that hurts you to lose, on some of these opinions that you would learn to think differently. It is a subtle but important difference.

I'll give you a reasonable example. When I used to play the horses I bet a lot of trainer angles and was constantly taking off the wall shots. Yeah, I occasionally these hit and felt really smart, but when I started playing full time I very quickly realized these horses were losers for two specific reasons. One was very simply that they did not pay off over time but the other was far more important, playing these horses often made me overlook logical winners and I was missing out on opportunities to really make money.

The point is I only really learned this because I was making a serious attempt to make money at the track and, in fact, my livelihood depended on that. Kibbitzing wacky ideas is one thing, but pretending they make sense in a very real sense is quite another, and that is the distinction I was trying to make. Yeah, it might be " cool " if trainers took off-the-wall shots with these BC horses, and it might make some of the races more " fun " for some us, but it makes absolutely no real world sense.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You don't understand what I am trying to say. What I was trying to say to you was that if you were forced to bet REAL money, a sum that hurts you to lose, on some of these opinions that you would learn to think differently. It is a subtle but important difference.

I'll give you a reasonable example. When I used to play the horses I bet a lot of trainer angles and was constantly taking off the wall shots. Yeah, I occasionally these hit and felt really smart, but when I started playing full time I very quickly realized these horses were losers for two specific reasons. One was very simply that they did not pay off over time but the other was far more important, playing these horses often made me overlook logical winners and I was missing out on opportunities to really make money.

The point is I only really learned this because I was making a serious attempt to make money at the track and, in fact, my livelihood depended on that. Kibbitzing wacky ideas is one thing, but pretending they make sense in a very real sense is quite another, and that is the distinction I was trying to make. Yeah, it might be " cool " if trainers took off-the-wall shots with these BC horses, and it might make some of the races more " fun " for some us, but it makes absolutely no real world sense.

The thing is that when u make all of your comments to me about how illogical and insane I am, u don't know how much I wager or how successful I am at it. Just because I might say that if I were an owner, I would run in a spot that u might not agree with or that I think an owner should do a certain thing, that doesn't have anything to do with how I bet the actual field that ends up in the gate.

When u say things like u have to me, u are very condescending in your attitude. I've been playing this game for 20 years now. That may not be as long as u have and it's probably 99% likely that u have invested more economically into the game than I have. But that doesn't mean that I'm some rookie either. When u say that I need to "learn to think differently".....who are u to tell me that? How do u know who I've talked to and learned from in the sport that have helped me come to some of the beliefs that I have? U don't. There is a way to disagree with people, even to maybe help them see things in a different way, without attempting to belittle them.

In any event, when I said that I think Invasor and Sun King are both in way over their head, I stand by it. U told me that I was being illogical (again) so let's see who's willing to back up what they believe. I'm assuming that u will be playing the races at the windows and so will I. But I'm going on record here saying that neither of those two horses break the top four in the Classic and if either of them does, I'll stay off of here for a week. And yes, that will hurt me because I do like to spout off my opinions and thoughts on here.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

ok ill take that action and lets back it it up with a small wager..100 bucks..you say invasor and sun king dont break the top 4..if im right you send the moneys to derby trail..if i lose you get paid..in or out..

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

In any event, when I said that I think Invasor and Sun King are both in way over their head, I stand by it. U told me that I was being illogical (again) so let's see who's willing to back up what they believe. I'm assuming that u will be playing the races at the windows and so will I. But I'm going on record here saying that neither of those two horses break the top four in the Classic and if either of them does, I'll stay off of here for a week. And yes, that will hurt me because I do like to spout off my opinions and thoughts on here.

What I don't get is staying off if you're wrong? That's not a punishment. Hell that's a free pass. If you're wrong about your stand and if you're really a stand-up guy you should stay on and face the music. I want you around after the classic so that i can say to you "I told you so" regarding Invasor. My stand is that there is no way he is worse than third. If I'm wrong I certainly won't be ducking you or anyone else either.

[blackthroatedwind]

You have skewed my words to suit your point which I do not appreciate...however, I think the point of yours I disagreed with was something about Invasor not being as good as five horses that Sun King faced in 2005. Since you seem to feel that is a defendable opinion I would love to hear the five horses and your concrete reasons that they were better horses than Invasor.

I will start by saying you better have some pretty clever ones because Invasor has run three races faster than any Afleet Alex ever did. Now, I am not necessarily saying Invasor is a better horse than Afleet Alex was but the bar is pretty high.

[Bernardini]

I agree with randallscott35, so what if you get a race wrong !!! here is my record of last 5 BCCs

2005 = 3/8
2004 = 2/8
2003 = 3/8
2002 = 6/8 (loved vindication)

KY Derby : outta last 7 times I got one, look at my picks..

2006 = picked Brother Derek
2005 = Afleet Alex
2004 = Smarty Jones
2003 = Empire Maker
2002 = Medaglia D'oro
2001 = Point Given
2000 = Aptitued

Okay, derby is hard to handicap, but nevertheless I'll post my picks for BCC again by Thursday, and I promise you if I'm wrong, I would'nt hide, no one would... this is where come to feel good about being wrong...

[Bernardini]

okay, i will back up my BCC right off here goes :

Perfect Drift, Premium Tap, Lava Man, Invasor (tri box)

PD, PT, DJ, LM

PD PT, GW, LM

I will bet possibly three but at least one combo..
notice no bernardini, no being "BOLD" about it ... even though I love the horse !!!

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Bernardini

okay, i will back up my BCC right off here goes :

Perfect Drift, Premium Tap, Lava Man, Invasor (tri box)

PD, PT, DJ, LM

PD PT, GW, LM

I will bet possibly three but at least one combo..
notice no bernardini, no being "BOLD" about it ... even though I love the horse !!!

I can't make a case that Bernie doesn't hit the board. Unless he's injured. He could lose, but he'll hit the board.

[Bernardini]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I can't make a case that Bernie doesn't hit the board. Unless he's injured. He could lose, but he'll hit the board.

I still havent cashed the winning preakness ticket, yes i picked dini over barbaro. If he wins or hits the board im very happy, I cant make money with dini (may be with tri or super box). If i lose, i lose... right? besides, betting is one aspect of racing i enjoy...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I got this idea from something Blackthroatwind said to me the other day. He asked me how much do I bet and if I bet enough to where it would hurt when I lose. Well, I want to see who's willing to take a strong stand for their convictions. Maybe this won't take off but I figured I'd try it just to see what happens. The point here is to post what u think is a bold prediction for the BC and if it doesn't happen, u stay off the board for a week. I said on another thread that I don't think Invasor breaks the top four in the Classic. Well, how strong do I feel about that? Am I willing to impose a sort of "self ban" if he does? Now this is not my stand against bet but an example. I say that u can chose as many as u want to. Any takers?

I actually like this idea. What KG is getting at is that participation here is a currency we all value that can be measured. Putting out strong Internet opinions is easy, but it doesn't mean much unless it is backed by some investment. Money investment is one way to back an opinion, but money investment can't be measured by other posters. Participation here is something that can easily be measured.

ArlJim and Sniper make good points in questioning whether staying away for a week is a punishment or an escape. Maybe a better "punishment" would be to stay and take your licks for a week after the BC, and then stay away for a month. Or, as Sniper suggests, promise to end each post for the next year with a reminder, "I'm the idiot who thought such-and-such".

I imagine we wouldn't get too many takers on that kind of proposal.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

I'll go away for the rest of the year if someone wants to give me what I've lost since Alabama day.

Hell, I'll gladly leave forever!

[repent]

Originally Posted by Dixie Porter

There simply is no HURRY. REMEMBER, they play the National Anthem every day.

"Don't fight the tape"..................

yep,
there is that quote I mentioned the other day in another thread.
single best thing I have read on any racing forum.


Repent

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dixie Porter

There really is no reason to lose money betting this game. I assume we have been both doing it for many, many years. I do not lose at year's end. If I did I'd be GONE in a NY Minute.

The betting angle has changed drasticaaly since the video replays. Any fool can watch a race 100 times from 5 different angles etc. Another negative thing is that there is simply to much information available to players.

I rarely bet more than 50 - 75 races a year and do not play exotics. You want to make a lot of money (this is RELATIVE) invest.

I no longer am at the track 24/7 so to play many races is fruitless. When I was a full time horse player, and claiming horses, I could look at a condition book and tell you 80% of the horses that would be entered in a given race a week before the race. Not so today.

I am quite sure that with PATIENCE and MONEY MANAGEMENT you would have no problem recouping your losses since Alabamba Day.

There simply is no HURRY. REMEMBER, they play the National Anthem every day.

"Don't fight the tape"..................

Oh, I didn't say I was losing for the year. Had a couple Pick-6s in April ( one small and one OK ) and made my biggest single race score on, you guessed it, a Bobby Frankel horse ( Aristocrat ).

I think that this whole thing is silly. The way to win or lose is to bet money at the windows, in the end thats all that matters.
I also find it pretty funny that this much hype is raised over one day of racing when there are 364 other days of racing as well, as far as wagering goes.
You can make a score on a 4 claimer at finger lakes and I assure you that the moeny is just as green and spendable as money from the BC is.
people voice opinions here because thats why the board is here.
But the problem with some of those opinions as they translate to betting is that anyone who really is sharp is going to form an opinion on a race, and analyze both odds and track bias once the card is underway.
There is no way to post here ahead of time and know the subtle nuances that go into your final bet.
Also, some guys like me like to key hangers underneath in trifectas, or may ust have an opinion that so and so is no good as heavy chalk and spread the race out going deep looking for a price. But its hard to take any credit for going 5 deep in a pik-4 race.
Look, there are many ways to arrive at a winning ticket, and none are any less gratifying than th others. Doesnt matter if you nailed a big tri because you loved the winner, or keyed a bomb in 2nd and 3rd and spread the other postions. A hit is a hit. The guy who keys the 6-1 winner doesn'tget paid any less than the guy who keyed the 20-1 for 2nd and 3rd.