Betting the KY Derby

[Seattleallstar]

So I love Alpha and want to play him in a tri. Would it be better to spend the money I would have on a tri ticket where I feel i have coverage for third, or should I just put Alpha down to win? I calculated the first ticket I wanted to play with coverage I felt comfortable with and it came to $90 dollars. If Alpha is in the double digit range arent I better off with a win bet? I have 5 horses for second place and I wouldnt feel comfortable leaving one out for the sake of having a cheaper tri ticket?

[Seattleallstar]

this is the play i have in mind so far

Alpha/creative cause, daddy long legs, El Padrino, Gemologist, Optimizer/ALL except Hansen, Trinninberg

[tanner12oz]

i think he will be around 20-1

would probably just play him to win....(i personally don't like him)...seems like that is the direction you are leaning towards and i would stick with it

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

So I love Alpha and want to play him in a tri. Would it be better to spend the money I would have on a tri ticket where I feel i have coverage for third, or should I just put Alpha down to win? I calculated the first ticket I wanted to play with coverage I felt comfortable with and it came to $90 dollars. If Alpha is in the double digit range arent I better off with a win bet? I have 5 horses for second place and I wouldnt feel comfortable leaving one out for the sake of having a cheaper tri ticket?

Tough to say. I don't play many tri's in general. For Derby I bet the winner and heavy on exactas. They pay well and i'm not greedy plus tri's are so hard in this race as usually get some clunker coming in.

BTW i agree Alpha has a great shot here! Good luck!

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

this is the play i have in mind so far

Alpha/creative cause, daddy long legs, El Padrino, Gemologist, Optimizer/ALL except Hansen, Trinninberg

Trying to save 10 bucks?

[Gate Dancer]

If he's your pick and he's 20-1, then I would go heavy on the win bet and maybe protect and use him underneath in exactas. Tri's and Supers get to be such a crapshoot.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Trying to save 10 bucks?

That's how I get beat all the time.

[Seattleallstar]

Thanks for the info so far guys, its really helping me out. Looks like win and exacta are winning out over the tri.

[South Beach Luv]

You could go ALL-ALL-Alpha in a 50c P3 and hope for some prices

[Travis Stone]

It really depends on your bankroll for the race.

[Seattleallstar]

im the pk3s and 4s im using multiple horses

Alpha, Daddy Long Legs, Gemologist El Padrino

[tywizard]

Key alpha in an exacta with the other five horses you like. $10 per ticket.

Also could key alpha in all three slots with the other five horses for $10 per ticket.

Have enough to make sizable wp bet. $20wp

To me this is the better value for your $90

[Seattleallstar]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

It really depends on your bankroll for the race.

whatever it takes..

[Seattleallstar]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Key alpha in an exacta with the other five horses you like. $10 per ticket.

Also could key alpha in all three slots with the other five horses for $10 per ticket.

Have enough to make sizable wp bet. $20wp

To me this is the better value for your $90

Thanks I just might do that, that sounds like a great idea

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

im the pk3s and 4s im using multiple horses

Alpha, Daddy Long Legs, Gemologist El Padrino

Think that's the wrong Daddy to use...

More so, anyway you look at it the tri will be juicier than the exacta. This race plays very true to payout expectations underneath, so if you really REALLY like Alpha - go Alpha / ________whomever/ ALL and don't let yourself get crushed by leaving out the wrong bomb. If a fave comes in, it's still going to pay great underneath with Alpha on top.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Think that's the wrong Daddy to use...

More so, anyway you look at it the tri will be juicier than the exacta. This race plays very true to payout expectations underneath, so if you really REALLY like Alpha - go Alpha / ________whomever/ ALL and don't let yourself get crushed by leaving out the wrong bomb. If a fave comes in, it's still going to pay great underneath with Alpha on top.

If a favorite finishes 3rd it will still pay great but not as much as an $18 exacta would have paid. No matter who is on top the trifecta comparison to the exacta is always determined by the 3rd place finisher.

Your call for sure.. but I tend to shy away from Derby horses whose plans unraveled due to a set back. No workouts at CD is big negative and really feel he is just to slow to put on top. Breeding however is one of or "is" the best of this group to tackle this Classic.

Scat

[Thunder Gulch]

Depends on who else you like. If you're stabbing at the other bombs, wheel up and down with Alpha. If you like the chalk, play Alpha straight.

[tywizard]

I would argue that any exotic bet that doesnt include union rags or bodemiester and does include alpha will pay rather nicely.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Think that's the wrong Daddy to use...

More so, anyway you look at it the tri will be juicier than the exacta. This race plays very true to payout expectations underneath, so if you really REALLY like Alpha - go Alpha / ________whomever/ ALL and don't let yourself get crushed by leaving out the wrong bomb. If a fave comes in, it's still going to pay great underneath with Alpha on top.

I agree... and having the Dubai consultant on with me makes me feel even better about it.

Nothing against the DWC, but (a) it never worked as a dirt prep and (b) certainly won't work with the Tapeta crap. And I have serious questions about his breeding for 10F.