12/17: Fair Grounds (Black Gold P5); Hollywood (Futurity)

[Kasept]

FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Black Gold P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Hard Case 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Greek Warrior 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Pulpit's Secret 6-1 7th
Super Add: #12 Majhood 6-1 9th


6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

One of many attention-worthy MSW around the country this weekend and connections seek to get diplomas for their babies. McGee unveils Urbanini here for Samantha Siegel, a Bernardini missy from her uber-productive Urbane (Suave, etc.). Howard brings back Please Be Discreet, a half to Tackleberry and Margolis tries to motivate the Hard Spun/Swept Away filly Flame Run, a half to Cash Refund. Take note that Davey Carroll's numbers with second timers is far better than the DRF stat of 10% indicates (29 starts). Thoro-Graph trainer stats show Carroll (#10 O Ren Ishii) at 23% from his last 53 second time runners..

Best Value: #1 Teeny Liz 6-1 7th
Next Best: #12 Please Be Discreet 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Miss Lorena 4-1 10th
Super Add: #10 O Ren Ishii 15-1 6th


7th: 6th Bonapaw, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Country Day 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Strike Impact 6-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Chamberlain Bridge 4-1 WON ($8.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Uno Ducksy 8-1 4th


8th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Hilarium a half to fast Queen ofthe Catsle. Celebrity Jack's half sister Smokin Bayou is worth noting for several reasons. A quick Asmussen 2yo that won the '08 Colleen before getting hurt in an AQU listed stake, Smokin Bayou was 4th in her career bow 6/13/08, the race where Rachel Alexandra debuted and broke her maiden for Hal Wiggins..

Most Likely: #13 Hilarium 9-2 10th
Best Value: #11 Speargun 10-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Radiant Talent 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Celebrity Jack 8-1 2nd


9th: 4th Blushing K D, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Ravi's Song 5-2 9th
Best Value: #7 Distorted Love 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Cherokee Queen 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Pleasantly Blessed 5-1 2nd


<$75 P5 Play:

5: 1-9-11
6: 1-8-12
7: 1-4
8: 4-11-12-13
9: 1-7

3x3x2x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


10th: Sugar Bowl, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Afford 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Exfactor 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Brown Eyed Jozie 7-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Laurie's Rocket 6-1 2nd



HOLLYWOOD PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


9th: 31st Cash Call Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Outrageous betting affair here as a balanced cast of 2yo's vie for last juvenile G1 stripe of the year. Baffert certainly comes in with a strong hand sending 3 viable candidates in Drill, Sky Kingdom and Liaison, but none are assured presence on the toteboard post-race. Royal Delta sister Empire Way disappointed in the Prevue, but may perk back up with an additional turn. Ramon Dominguez comes to Cali to ride Majestic City, but possible distance questions make him a play-against in my mind at 4-1. Blingo is an Artie Schiller son from Team Zenyatta that broke his maiden on the lawn just three weeks ago. He's being asked to do a lot in his second start, but is a Derby Trail horse according to West Coast observers and Shirreffs has placed good young ones in spots like this before. Doug O'Neill sends Handsome Mike and Basmati who both look to have futures, but for this endeavor it feels like Handsome Mike is better positioned for success from the #1 hole. Both Dale Romas (Cozzetti) and Jerry Hollendorfer (Rousing Sermon) deliver steadily developing runners to this undertaking, with Dorf's Cal-bred chestnut 5/2-1-2 entering fray with a Killer Graces 'house horse' feel to him. Jim Cassidy (Brother Francis) and Mr. Cho (Groovin' Solo) enter maidens in this famed event with Groovin' Solo (50-1), away since Del Mar, being a half to Premier Pegasus. Brother Francis is an interesting prospect that has broken poorly in his two tries before rallying late to miss by narrow margins. Beaten by So Brilliant last time, he will sit a cozy trip from the #2 slot hole under Victor Espinoza and looks irresistible at 20-1..

Best Value: #2 Brother Francis 20-1 3rd
Most Likely: #9 Liaison 9-2 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #7 Blingo 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Sky Kingdom 6-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Rousing Sermon 6-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (9-8) Paid $47.00
$1 Trifecta (9-8-2) Paid $476.60
$1 Superfecta (9-8-2-6) Paid $2,524.10


Good luck!
Steve