SAR R2 (and others) -- 8/11

[the_fat_man]

A sort of a replay of 8/09 R3, as RUDY and Pletcher hook up again:

#6, Wise Stop, 1st time RUDY, wiped them out last time breaking his maiden; beaten a nose by Ibboyee last year at SAR, when Weaver had him. Banking on Rudy stepping this one up.

#7, One Note Samba, set insane pace off a 9 month layoff, and still held very well to the wire

#9, Zone Breaker, wired them last out, breaking her maiden; same day that the 7 won

here's a comparison of the race splits of the 7 and 9 last out (same day at BEL)
7) 21.70 22.71 12.21 13.68
9) 22.71 23.56 11.65 12.84

Just about anyone will tell you that the 7 ran the better race last out, given the faster splits. We'll see today.

I like the 6 here. Will use either the 7 or 9 under in exactas, depending on the price

Will play a double with the 3 in the 1st and to the 10 in the 3rd (hopefully Dominguez will be able to get that one home 1st as it apparently doesn't like to win and won't appreciate the distance.)

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

A sort of a replay of 8/09 R3, as RUDY and Pletcher hook up again:

#6, Wise Stop, 1st time RUDY, wiped them out last time breaking his maiden; beaten a nose by Ibboyee last year at SAR, when Weaver had him. Banking on Rudy stepping this one up.

#7, One Note Samba, set insane pace off a 9 month layoff, and still held very well to the wire

#9, Zone Breaker, wired them last out, breaking her maiden; same day that the 7 won

here's a comparison of the race splits of the 7 and 9 last out (same day at BEL)
7) 21.70 22.71 12.21 13.68
9) 22.71 23.56 11.65 12.84

Just about anyone will tell you that the 7 ran the better race last out, given the faster splits. We'll see today.

I like the 6 here. Will use either the 7 or 9 under in exactas, depending on the price

Will play a double with the 3 in the 1st and to the 10 in the 3rd (hopefully Dominguez will be able to get that one home 1st as it apparently doesn't like to win and won't appreciate the distance.)

Fats I thought the 2 was ok in the 3rd... He actually ran a bit last time around the turn and flattened out late, still an improved effort and he should appreciate the stretchout in a race vs some horses who really dont want to win.

[MaTH716]

Fats, any chance on a meltdown with the possiblity of the 2 and 3 trying to go as well?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Fats I thought the 2 was ok in the 3rd... He actually ran a bit last time around the turn and flattened out late, still an improved effort and he should appreciate the stretchout in a race vs some horses who really dont want to win.

He basically followed the top ones home, never threatening them in any way, in a race with a ton of late flow. I understand your thinking that the longer distance might step this one up, however, and the price should be decent. I just think that Il Senatore is better than these and Dominguez should be able to 'trick' him to the wire; time the run so that he doesn't have a chance to pull up.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Fats, any chance on a meltdown with the possiblity of the 2 and 3 trying to go as well?

I don't think the 6 and/or 7 are getting outrun here. But if there's a meltdown, wouldn't the 9 be perfectly positioned just behind the top pair?

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I don't think the 6 and/or 7 are getting outrun here. But if there's a meltdown, wouldn't the 9 be perfectly positioned just behind the top pair?

Not sure. I was assuming that since he went wire to wire in his debut that he would be somewhere near the lead today.

[the_fat_man]

I don't think he's as fast early as the 7 has shown to be.
Looking at the 3 again, 2nd race back this one was winging it early as well.

[the_fat_man]

I'm going to also use the 7 in the 1st. She doesn't like to win and is probably a trap horse, but I sort of like her last race and she should be > 15:1

[MISTERGEE]

does the 8 deserve to be 10-1 in race 2? price is making me consider to key?

[knickslions2]

I bet 6,7 box

[the_fat_man]

Terrible ride by Dominguez. Who is gaining from mid pack after those slow fractions? Certainly not a horse that's a known hanger.