4/11: Keeneland (6th-10th); Comely; AK Derby

[Kasept]

Had very nice afternoon at Keeneland Friday despite agonizing wire beat out of very big P4 score. Previous 3 events earned large P3 though, and day's excellent exotics should have sent you home with some bankrol for today's Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby cards. Hope you did well. On way to Landover, MD this a.m., so it will be difficult to make post-scratch adjustments until early afternoon. Hope you enjoyed ATR from Foxwoods Thursday and Friday!


KEENELAND


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: Shakertown (Gr. III), 3+, 5,5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Hero's Reward 5-1: May be better next, but respect Capuano veteran.. WON
Most Likely: #4 Mr. Nightlinger 5-2: Serious specialist back for title defense.. 5th
Next Best: #9 Chamberlain Bridge 5-1: Non-coupled to ML fave; 5yo gets GoGo.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Cannonball 12-1: Got turf sprint education last; Can boost exotics.. 2nd

$1 Exacta (10-5) Paid $56.70
$1 Trifecta (10-5-9) Paid $396.80


7th: Commonwealth (Gr. II), 3+, 7f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Rebellion 5-2: Won this off similar break last year.. 2nd
Best Value: #2 Keep Laughing 6-1: KMc DistHumor needs best, but can pop up.. 5th
Next Best: #4 My Pal Charlie 4-1: Stall says turnback should suit Gr. II winner.. 3rd
Super Add: #1 Eternal Star 9-2: Trombo tabbed this over Gr. I Carter; Capable.. WON

$2 Exacta (1-8) Paid $47.00
$1 Trifecta (1-8-4) Paid $71.80


8th: Jenny Wiley (Gr. II), F&M04+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 I Lost My Choo 6-1: Serpe NY bred always ready; Goes 2nd/layoff.. 7th
Best Value: #6 Kiss With a Twist 30-1: LDK mare prepped on TP poly; Explodes here.. 3rd
Next Best: #3 Forever Together 1-1: BC Turf star formidable; Sheppard's guns ablaze.. WON
Super Add: #7 Backseat Rhythm 4-1 5th


9th: Blue Grass (Gr. I), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Charitable Man 4-1: McLaughlin Futurity winner working brilliantly for '09 bow.. 7th
Best Value: #4 Ciffy's Future 20-1: Poly prep score noted for connections who won this with Dominican.. 11th
Next Best: #2 Join in the Dance 10-1: Pletcher TB Derby runner-up a wire threat loose on lead.. 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Patena 10-1: Expect snap back effort after FG fiasco; Liked Woodbine's synthetic.. 10th
Super Add: #5 Mafaaz 12-1: Likely better than people anticipate; Paceless affair could suit.. 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-9-10
7: 1-2-4-7-8
8: 1-3-6
9: 4-9

4x5x3x2 = 120 x .50 = $60


10th: ALW/N3X, 4+, 9f-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #7 Pick Six 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Jazz Quest 10-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Jamaludin 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 SCR
High 5 Play: #9 Late SCR



AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


9th: Comely (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Dream Play 9-5: KMc Hennessy miss should stalk, go.. WON
Best Value: #2 Don't Forget Gil 5-2: FL Oaks heroine comes late; Will be lost on board.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Laragh 2-1: HOL Starlet winner may need one.. 5th



OAKLAWN PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


11th: Arkansas Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Old Fashioned 9-5: Should get more comfortable trip today.. 2nd
Best Value: #3 Flat Out 10-1: Caught attention early and believe he steps up.. 6th
Next Best: #2 Papa Clem 6-1: Stute's careful handling paying off; Gets 1st fast, dry strip.. WON
Super Add: #9 Win Willy 7-2: Much less pace to chase; Needs decent showing only.. 4th


Good luck!
Steve