Belmont 6-1 Rankings

[ArlJim78]

...............................results
1) 5/7/4..................7/2/3
2) 6/5/7..................6/3/5
3) 5/3/2..................2/5/4..PK3 $302
4) 3/7/2/6...............7/3/2..PK3 $255..TRI $87
5) 9/1/5/4...............9/2/4..PK3 $200..PK4 $914
6) 3/2/5.............. ...7/6/5
7) 2/7/4/9...............2/3/7/10..EX $59
8) 8/9/2/5...............8/9/6/1..EX $42
9) 3/7/8/2...............8/1/7/3..PK3 $117
10) 8/9/10/5............8/10/2/5..PK3 $141 PK4 $649

[ArlJim78]

first choice- 5 wins
second choice- 2 wins
third choice- 2 wins

9 of 10 races had winner in top 3

[Kasept]

Well done A/J...

[Bigsmc]

Super day Jim.

[3kings]

Nice effort Jim.

[blackthroatedwind]

No wonder my opinion sucked today.

[blackthroatedwind]

On a slightly more serious note, the 5th race was a very interesting example of bad bettors cashing. The idea of taking even money on that preposterously mediocre horse is beyond ludicrous and anyone that did is a guaranteed loser at the racetrack ( I am not picking on you Jim and would bet you would agree that the odds were absurd ). I made a substantial bet on the 4, who ran 4th, and had that horse been even a scintilla of a racehorse he would have absolutely galloped. Taking even money on proven mediocrities when there are legitimate underexposed horses in the race is a road to disaster.

Today seemed like a day when those horses were winning.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

On a slightly more serious note, the 5th race was a very interesting example of bad bettors cashing. The idea of taking even money on that preposterously mediocre horse is beyond ludicrous and anyone that did is a guaranteed loser at the racetrack ( I am not picking on you Jim and would bet you would agree that the odds were absurd ). I made a substantial bet on the 4, who ran 4th, and had that horse been even a scintilla of a racehorse he would have absolutely galloped. Taking even money on proven mediocrities when there are legitimate underexposed horses in the race is a road to disaster.

Today seemed like a day when those horses were winning.

Race 6 was a missed opportunity.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

On a slightly more serious note, the 5th race was a very interesting example of bad bettors cashing. The idea of taking even money on that preposterously mediocre horse is beyond ludicrous and anyone that did is a guaranteed loser at the racetrack ( I am not picking on you Jim and would bet you would agree that the odds were absurd ). I made a substantial bet on the 4, who ran 4th, and had that horse been even a scintilla of a racehorse he would have absolutely galloped. Taking even money on proven mediocrities when there are legitimate underexposed horses in the race is a road to disaster.

Today seemed like a day when those horses were winning.

I think that may be an indictment of the field, as well. I bet the 5, on the thinking that she may move foreward off of an even debut and it's always better to side with the lightly raced over the proven losers in a field like this. See the 9th at Mth for a similar example (with a much better result).

Another point, I went to Belmont today and had very little interest in the live racing. The card just wasn't very good. There was exactly one race which was interesting to me, the 6th, in which I disliked both favorites and my "smart" selection of Blue Bullet waking up off the good work @ 10-1 ran second... and I didn't get a dime back for it.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by pick4

Race 6 was a missed opportunity.

Ha, just wrote the same thing. I totally botched that one.

[pick4]

I thought it was a three horse race and Kaper Lake was on of them. I also put a check next Blue Bullet as an underneath horse. I fell in love Mr. Madison and was horrfied when he went for the lead with pig Whistlin. I collected a $2 win bet on Kaper but it could of been a lot more.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

...............................results
1) 5/7/4..................7/2/3
2) 6/5/7..................6/3/5
3) 5/3/2..................2/5/4..PK3 $302
4) 3/7/2/6...............7/3/2..PK3 $255..TRI $87
5) 9/1/5/4...............9/2/4..PK3 $200..PK4 $914
6) 3/2/5.............. ...7/6/5
7) 2/7/4/9...............2/3/7/10..EX $59
8) 8/9/2/5...............8/9/6/1..EX $42
9) 3/7/8/2...............8/1/7/3..PK3 $117
10) 8/9/10/5............8/10/2/5..PK3 $141 PK4 $649

Great Job!!!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

On a slightly more serious note, the 5th race was a very interesting example of bad bettors cashing. The idea of taking even money on that preposterously mediocre horse is beyond ludicrous and anyone that did is a guaranteed loser at the racetrack ( I am not picking on you Jim and would bet you would agree that the odds were absurd ). I made a substantial bet on the 4, who ran 4th, and had that horse been even a scintilla of a racehorse he would have absolutely galloped. Taking even money on proven mediocrities when there are legitimate underexposed horses in the race is a road to disaster.

Today seemed like a day when those horses were winning.

no I would not have bet the 9 to win at those odds. I don't have enough confidence on the Belmont turf to take such a low price. my rankings come primarily from a calculation based on PP data, when there is a race like this with several horses having only one or two starts, the result is obviously not as predictable as other races where the field has more established form on display. Also the rankings are not based on betting value, I'm only trying to accurately predict the outcome. How to turn it into value is another task.
As you know for multirace plays you can't just throw out every underlay. In this case the nine completed a pick four sequence that paid I thought fairly well, the value coming from the 2 in the third.

The rating on the nine was much the best because of the established form from the last two races, form which none of the others had.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pick4

I thought it was a three horse race and Kaper Lake was on of them. I also put a check next Blue Bullet as an underneath horse. I fell in love Mr. Madison and was horrfied when he went for the lead with pig Whistlin. I collected a $2 win bet on Kaper but it could of been a lot more.

i had Pig Whistlin as a slight standout and the rest of the field you could have thrown a blanket over. Like you I was surprised the way the race was run with essentially a four horse duel on the front end.