A Bit About Track Bias (Dirt)

A week or so ago there was a thread asking what a float was and how/why is it used? With apologies to the few veterans who will find this redundant, I thought i would expand on that topic.

I guess it was Davidowitz in his epic tome "Betting Thoroughbreds" who first wrote that if you did not take into consideration track surface, profits would not be attainable. In the three decades since, many have opined a variety of theories, concepts and conclusions about track bias, all having at least a modicum of acceptance, but none refuting his tenet. One has to look no further than ten weeks ago when the Breeders Cup was ran at Churchill Downs and many handicappers thought (incorrectly) that an inside bias existed. True the rail horse won four times, but the only bias that day, occurred in the Classic, but that is another story.

I should state that I am no expert in agronomy, but can empirically contribute that a basic understanding of track maintenance can lead a handicapper to the right horse, at the right price.

Dirt, dirt and more dirt aside the maintenance of a race track is hard work! As an example of a track, take your hands, put them straight so that the fingertips touch and the fingers of each hand are parallel. Then slowly push them together. Bring your hands to eye level noticing the tips of the fingers stick up higher than the knuckles. This, is very primitive and quite exaggerated, but nevertheless mimics the shape of a race track. All tracks are crowned in the center, as are all football fields! Why? To promote drainage from rainfall.

To shorten this post, if that's possible, let's assume that it is the end of May, at Churchill Downs, mid-morning and the first rain in a week or so is imminent. Further assume the track is in perfect shape, and a soft rain starts falling at noon. Track superintendent Butch Lehr will be monitoring the surface carefully and at some point will "float" the track. A float, is a weighted piece of steel probably some ten feet across. It is attached by chain, to a tractor and dragged across the racing surface. Most weigh a couple of tons and cost some $10,000. The purpose; to compress the three-inch top layer (cushion) and the underlying three-inch base*. Why? So the rain runs off to the sides (remember the track is cambered) and not be absorbed into the surface itself. The track will stay compressed or "sealed" until the rain subsides, which may take a day or two. How should cappers play a sealed track? Cautiously. Cappers know most horses detest the surface as they bring some 5,000 pounds per square inch at impact and it is almost certainly uneven to them, appears a mirror and the bottom is hard to detect. Jockeys have even more disdain but that is another matter. If pressed, or I had to play, I would downgrade the chances of both the inside and the outside horses, give horses that have won on a sealed surface extra scrutiny and play horses being bet.

As the track dries out, the water on the crown drains off and eventually evaporates. At this point the track is being harrowed (raked) with the intent to get the surface back to normal or fair! The inside or rail, may still have standing water while the outside is muddy. The best traction is the rail and cappers should look there, all else being equal.

Perhaps a race or two later, the sun comes out and the crown begins to dry while the rail is now muddy... huge advantage outside! How long does it last? A card or two at the longest. Then the track super wants to return the track to a fair (unbiased) surface. Some of the topsoil (dirt) or "cushion" has gravitated from the crown, towards the rail and needs to be moved back to the crown. Bring on the scraper blade and move the top layer of dirt from the rail to the crown... big advantage inside horses.

This circular process occurs at all tracks, poly excluded, and yields some predictable performances at outstanding odds. Be aware tracks listed as: fast, slow, muddy, good etc. are sometimes contested on a sealed track. A hybrid agronomist/handicapper would want to know the moisture content, particle size and organic makeup and would probably excel at picking winners!!

In conclusion, track surfaces are quirky and unique. The Fairgrounds features a long, long stretch, while cross state Delta Downs is often regarded as a bullring with a stretch half as long. Most cappers do not realize that the Delta stretch is WIDER than the Fairgrounds!

Both Belmont and Churchill can get extremely rapid, the former from rain, the latter from humidity. It is mostly due to the sand and clay content respectively. In fact, Churchill will often add as much as twenty thousand gallons of water EACH day!

Lastly sorry for the length. On the turf the bias is much more pronounced and much more difficult to discern. BBB



*There is much more to track composition but most tracks have a surface of 3" cushion then 3" base.

[blackthroatedwind]

I think I will let DrugS handle this, but....


1 ) the rail was golden on BC Day. What posts winning horses had is irrelevent. What is relevent is the performance a number of horses put in while racing on the rail. If someone wants to believe otherwise I hope it is also someone betting more than $35 a week.

2 ) While I am no expert, by any means, in the makeup of racing surfaces, I have spent way too much of my life studying races and discovering possible biases on racing strips. While I think tracks are far more even these days than " the days of old ", there are biases, though probably fewer than many believe. I also think many people confuse outside flow with dead rails and these are two VERY different things with seeming similarities.

3 ) I believe that turf courses very rarely possess a strong bias ( as long as they don't get rock hard ) and the VAST majority of races run on the turf are strictly a function of pace and trip.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I am going to run my hands through some dirt.

I am confused on how a turf course has a strong bias. Turf racing seems to be less biaed that dirt.

[westcoastinvader]

Good post bellsbendboy. A nice categorization of things I have seen for years, but never really attached the significance for wagering leverage.

I don't have much supporting data, but I do know the turf at Del Mar this past August was a subject of at least minor controversy because of the movement of the rail from day to day.

I happened to be there for some Q & A with Jerry Hollendorfer in a trackside pre-card chat on the 2nd Saturday in August, and he mentioned some lament over the turf rail placement for the day.

I ended up catching A.P Warrior nicely at over 5-1 in the La Jolla Handicap that weekend.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

A week or so ago there was a thread asking what a float was and how/why is it used? With apologies to the few veterans who will find this redundant, I thought i would expand on that topic.

The track will stay compressed or "sealed" until the rain subsides, which may take a day or two. How should cappers play a sealed track? Cautiously. Cappers know most horses detest the surface as they bring some 5,000 pounds per square inch at impact and it is almost certainly uneven to them, appears a mirror and the bottom is hard to detect. Jockeys have even more disdain but that is another matter. If pressed, or I had to play, I would downgrade the chances of both the inside and the outside horses, give horses that have won on a sealed surface extra scrutiny and play horses being bet.

That was me who started that topic and I thank you for such a well-expained post on the subject. Although I'm one of those $35 a week bettors I still care a lot about becoming a better handicapper and increasing my knowledge of the game and that really helped.

Is there any way from looking at the PP's which horses had won on a sealed surface?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Is there any way from looking at the PP's which horses had won on a sealed surface?

DRF stated including a little " s " by the track condition for a sealed track...but that only started recently. There is no listing for cumulative sealed track performances.

I never meant to knock anyone who bets small amounts, and never would, but someone who claims to make significant five figure annual profits while also claiming to bet roughly $35 a week, as the author of this thread did, is a different story.

Not all given information is good information.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Is there any way from looking at the PP's which horses had won on a sealed surface?

DRF PPs... no; they're not complete. Charts ... yes.

It's always useful to have a folder file of charts for the track(s) you follow. A couple minutes of time is all it takes to download and store them and there's really no substitute.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

DRF stated including a little " s " by the track condition for a sealed track...but that only started recently. There is no listing for cumulative sealed track performances.

I never meant to knock anyone who bets small amounts, and never would, but someone who claims to make significant five figure annual profits while also claiming to bet roughly $35 a week, as the author of this thread did, is a different story.

Not all given information is good information.

Thanks, and I will look for little the little "s" in the future!

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

DRF PPs... no; they're not complete. Charts ... yes.

It's always useful to have a folder file of charts for the track(s) you follow. A couple minutes of time is all it takes to download and store them and there's really no substitute.

I started saving the weekend Forms, but doing it this way and daily probably would be a good idea, thanks.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The 2 horse getting place in the B.C. Sprint is the biggest sign that the rail was pumped up.The horse can't win the Mike Lee for New York breds,but can run 2nd in the biggest sprint race in the Country? The four consecutive 1 horses winning pales in comparison to this.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

The 2 horse getting place in the B.C. Sprint is the biggest sign that the rail was pumped up.The horse can't win the Mike Lee for New York breds,but can run 2nd in the biggest sprint race in the Country? The four consecutive 1 horses winning pales in comparison to this.

The thing that was the best about Friendly Island (not to rehash the bias thing, cuz it's pretty beat to death) was how Eric Wing posted about loving Friendly Island on about three different occasions on the ntra.com homepage in the month leading to the BC. He laid out a really compelling (for lack of a better word) argument about why Friendly Island was going to be a HUGE overlay bomber in that race, based on his performances.

I didn't believe it, because obviously the horse was having a hard time getting a win anywhere, but I can't say that the man was talking like a crazy person either beforehand. Usually when people get lucky on something like that, i think of it just that way -- lucky. But Wing had been so adamant and so logical in laying it out, that I wasn't totally shocked that the horse ran a big one.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

The thing that was the best about Friendly Island (not to rehash the bias thing, cuz it's pretty beat to death) was how Eric Wing posted about loving Friendly Island on about three different occasions on the ntra.com homepage in the month leading to the BC. He laid out a really compelling (for lack of a better word) argument about why Friendly Island was going to be a HUGE overlay bomber in that race, based on his performances.

I didn't believe it, because obviously the horse was having a hard time getting a win anywhere, but I can't say that the man was talking like a crazy person either beforehand. Usually when people get lucky on something like that, i think of it just that way -- lucky. But Wing had been so adamant and so logical in laying it out, that I wasn't totally shocked that the horse ran a big one.

This weekend is the Friendly Island moment you've been waiting for....he is catching a light field in the G2 Palos Verdes.

Hey Dahoss: From a personal standpoint I generally do not research any card until one of the participants shows up in the pick 4 that I am playing. With that said the Breeders cup is a big day and I did a litlle bit of pre/post race study. My only bet aside from a modest late pick four was Street Sense and posted that he would maul his field at some five or six to one!

I bet my own tickets but entertain just about every opinion I can find. In the days after the cup, I distinctly recall Ragozin posting that there was NO INDICATION of "bias". He used caps! And Butch Lehr saying the track was perfect. He personally grades the track every day. TGJB, many bloggers I respect, and from memory Cannon Shell this forum indicated the track was "normal" or the same it normally is. Stick to your guns if you have a differing opinion.

Eurobounce: The turf rail is an extraordinary bias in itself but courses drain differently and the track super can't do much more than water the lawn and replace the divots. The bias is greater than that on dirt! Do you play golf?

Black throat: I am perplexed at your incredulity of my earnings and amounts bet. I suspect, you would have been deeply disturbed if I took down the entire late FG pick 4pool ($39K) this past Sunday on a $36 investment... I almost did!

Et Al. Thanks. All successful handicappers have paid their dues. Take one step at a time. BBB

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Black throat: I am perplexed at your incredulity of my earnings and amounts bet. I suspect, you would have been deeply disturbed if I took down the entire late FG pick 4pool ($39K) this past Sunday on a $36 investment... I almost did!

Let me illuscidate it for you.....because unlike you I understand what it takes to even learn to have a chance to be a successful player over the long term and one thing I know for sure is that nobody can be a consistent winner putting in miniscule Pick-4 plays once a week. Sure it's possible to get lucky, and if you said you went to the track a few times and split some fun Pick-6s with your friends, and you got a little lucky one day and hit for $97K I would understand how you had a good year. However, feeding us the bunk that you did, in conjunction with your posts and selections on THIS board, it is painfully obvious that you are not telling at least the whole truth. And, I don't like to see the kind and generous folks here get swindled, as I happen to think you have an agenda. There are just too many posters with a paucity of posts popping up out of nowhere to publicize your great selections ON ANOTHER FORUM.

[westcoastinvader]

There are just too many posters with a paucity of posts popping up out of nowhere to publicize your great selections ON ANOTHER FORUM.[/quote]

I do LOVE this sport.

"A paucity of posts popping out of nowhere to publicize...."

Great alliteration, plus bonus points for "paucity!"

Horseplayers are an underrated group!

Just for clarification, I know Bellsbendboy from nowhere, and I have a "tad" more than a paucity of posts around these horse boards over the last few years.

I give no credence to his claims, but I do know that self proclaimed smart horseplayers can minimize damage, and often make a few bucks, without major investment over the year.

I love horse racing, but I do not have the time to make it a wagering habit of more than four or five times a month.....at most. But, when I decide to wager, I'll check out the card pretty thoroughly with the easy information available.

When I lived in Miami years ago, I followed every race....every day.....and did well when I wagered.

Here in California, I follow racing in general. And when I'm ready to bet I'll go a little deeper in recent research. But not too deep. This is FUN for me. Not a job!

It's always a cool feeling when my wife sheepishly tells our accountant that her husband has "gambling winnings" to claim.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let me illuscidate it for you.....because unlike you I understand what it takes to even learn to have a chance to be a successful player over the long term and one thing I know for sure is that nobody can be a consistent winner putting in miniscule Pick-4 plays once a week. Sure it's possible to get lucky, and if you said you went to the track a few times and split some fun Pick-6s with your friends, and you got a little lucky one day and hit for $97K I would understand how you had a good year. However, feeding us the bunk that you did, in conjunction with your posts and selections on THIS board, it is painfully obvious that you are not telling at least the whole truth. And, I don't like to see the kind and generous folks here get swindled, as I happen to think you have an agenda. There are just too many posters with a paucity of posts popping up out of nowhere to publicize your great selections ON ANOTHER FORUM.

Are you implying that I will soon be getting unsolicited PMs from BBB guaranteeing winnings at the track with a sure-fire pick-4 system? I must admit that although I am often as hard-bitten and cynical as they come regarding human motivations, this possibility had not occurred to me. My hat is off to you BTW -- you are even more mistrustful (or perhaps I should just say cautious) than me. It's good to know you got my back.

That being said, I don't believe that BBB has an agenda, at least not one involving a scam. He doggedly responds with unearthly calm to pointed (although often very funny) ripostes, which sometimes seem entirely designed for the sole purpose of mocking him. No scam artist would have the patience.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Are you implying that I will soon be getting unsolicited PMs from BBB guaranteeing winnings at the track with a sure-fire pick-4 system? I must admit that although I am often as hard-bitten and cynical as they come regarding human motivations, this possibility had not occurred to me. My hat is off to you BTW -- you are even more mistrustful (or perhaps I should just say cautious) than me. It's good to know you got my back.

That being said, I don't believe that BBB has an agenda, at least not one involving a scam. He doggedly responds with unearthly calm to pointed (although often very funny) ripostes, which sometimes seem entirely designed for the sole purpose of mocking him. No scam artist would have the patience.

Actually I believe the poster who tells serious horseplayers, and there are some here, that he made almost $20 for every $1 bet in 2006 is actually mocking us.

[kenny p]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let me illuscidate it for you.....because unlike you I understand what it takes to even learn to have a chance to be a successful player over the long term and one thing I know for sure is that nobody can be a consistent winner putting in miniscule Pick-4 plays once a week. Sure it's possible to get lucky, and if you said you went to the track a few times and split some fun Pick-6s with your friends, and you got a little lucky one day and hit for $97K I would understand how you had a good year. However, feeding us the bunk that you did, in conjunction with your posts and selections on THIS board, it is painfully obvious that you are not telling at least the whole truth. And, I don't like to see the kind and generous folks here get swindled, as I happen to think you have an agenda. There are just too many posters with a paucity of posts popping up out of nowhere to publicize your great selections ON ANOTHER FORUM.

I just got home from working all night. Illuscidate and paucity. BTW, you made my morning. Thank you. By the way what does illuscidate mean? KP

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by kenny p

I just got home from working all night. Illuscidate and paucity. BTW, you made my morning. Thank you. By the way what does illuscidate mean? KP

It could be a new word. Or, I could have spelled it correctly.....


elucidate.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Actually I believe the poster who tells serious horseplayers, and there are some here, that he made almost $20 for every $1 bet in 2006 is actually mocking us.

Actually, I think BBB made that statement on a thread I started about what it takes to make a living gambling on horses. When you crunch the numbers, as many have done following BBB's statement, it does seem outlandish, but I don't feel mocked, especially (and I do consider myself a serious, albeit amateur, horseplayer).

Wait a second, are you mocking me for making a mocking comment about mocking comments?