6/28: Churchill Downs (Stephen Foster Day)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Lost and Found debuted at 2 and is 2nd out today, but take note on 3yo first out runners from Will Walden (21% overall; 79%! ITM) who have won at 9/5, 8/5, 1/1 and 5/2 of late.. In other words, if they get bet, they win..

Best Value: #9 Lost and Found 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Speighter Woman 7-2 11th
Exotics Use: #8 Pretty in a Dress 6-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Spun Candy 9-2 WON ($16.38)


7th: Fleur de Lis (G2), F&M-4+, 9f (Derby City 6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Royal Spa 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Gin Gin 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Thorpedo Anna 3-5 WON ($2.70)


8th: Tepin, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P5, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Something Stronger 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Vixen 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Lush Lips 9-5 WON ($5.24)
Super Add: #1 Fixin to Bee SCR


$3 Turf P3 Grid:

8: 1/SCR-2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 8 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
12: 1-3-9/SCR (A), - (B), - (C)

Main: 3x2x2 = 12 x $3 = $36
Budget: 3x1x2 = 6 x $3 = $18 (8 only in 10th)


9th: Kelly's Landing (G3), 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Booth 2-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Dr. Venkman 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Happy Is a Choice 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Roll On Big Joe 3-1 WON ($11.90)


10th: Wise Dan (G2), 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Mercante a (big) SCR after not coming out of work to Knippenberg's satisfaction..

Best Value: #8 Fort Washington 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Mi Hermano Ramon 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Lagynos 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Brilliant Berti 3-1 WON ($6.08)


P5 Grid:

6: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-6 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
9: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 8 (A), 3 (B), 2-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-7 in 10th)


11th: Stephen Foster (G1), 4+, 9f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 FIRST MISSION 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Sierra Leone 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Mindframe 7-2 WON ($5.76)
Super Add: #5 Mystik Dan 3-1 4th


12th: American Derby, 3yo, 8.5-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Reagan's Wit Late SCR
Next Best: #3 Tiztastic 5-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Minaret Station 15-1 WON ($7.44)
Exotics Use: #6 Native Runner 10-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

8: 2-6 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
9: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-8 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
11: 1 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
12: 1-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x1x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 2x3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

9: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-8 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
11: 1 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
12: 1-3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
All A's: 3x2x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAACA): 3x2x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12 (4 in 11th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[moses]

Good luck Steve.

For better or worse, I’ll be singling #5 Lush Lips in the Tepin. Let’s cash some tickets today.

[casp0555]

looks like it will be the Jose Ortiz Day at The Downs....first 4 Ws

[moses]

Don’t be cheap guys.

I was between mindframe and first mission and decided to single first mission instead of just spending the extra $30. Cost me $1100.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Don’t be cheap guys.

I was between mindframe and first mission and decided to single first mission instead of just spending the extra $30. Cost me $1100.

Unrelated (but sort of related since I had Reagan’s Wit in my pick 5, which ended up as Tiztastic twice which I would have never done), it’s ridiculous that they didn’t announce the Reagan’s Wit scratch until so late given that the reason listed is to run in a Stakes race. That’s just a big FU to the bettors for how that played out.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Unrelated (but sort of related since I had Reagan’s Wit in my pick 5, which ended up as Tiztastic twice which I would have never done), it’s ridiculous that they didn’t announce the Reagan’s Wit scratch until so late given that the reason listed is to run in a Stakes race. That’s just a big FU to the bettors for how that played out.

Let's hold up on the phuck you to bettors.. It wasn't 'announced' late; Cherie SCR'D when she did ~ a STK SCR which can be done at any time ~ due to the degrading turf course condition after 2 thunderstorms.

What's annoying is the wager rules that give us post time faves in that circumstance. As has been discussed for ages, it past time to offer a SCR alternate within the wager format.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Let's hold up on the phuck you to bettors.. It wasn't 'announced' late; Cherie SCR'D when she did ~ a STK SCR which can be done at any time ~ due to the degrading turf course condition after 2 thunderstorms.

What's annoying is the wager rules that give us post time faves in that circumstance. As has been discussed for ages, it past time to offer a SCR alternate within the wager format.

Steve, agreed on the SCR alternate.

Thanks for the additional info as well because I was following the turf condition but only checking to see if it was still listed as firm, I didn’t realize there were issues with the turf after the storms. That makes more sense and is easier to accept but the way it’s listed simply as “Stakes” made it seem like it was a decision that could have been made well before then. I see now that wasn’t the case.