Get Your Preak Off

[RolloTomasi]

Cox Offers Sackful of Limp Excuses for Skipping Preakness

Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox will not saddle a starter in the Preakness, he announced on Thursday. Derby runner-up Mandaloun and Grade 1 Arkansas Derby runner-up Caddo River had been under consideration for the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

What happened? Did they bring back the Jersey Derby with a $5 million purse or something?

Where else could you possibly run these horses?

Cox said Caddo River had not yet done enough training to pursue the Preakness after putting in a four-furlong work over a wet Churchill track in :48.80 on Monday. The Shortleaf Stable homebred will instead target the G3 Matt Winn Stakes there at the end of May.

Oh, I had forgotten about the Matt Winn.

Yeah, after missing a chance at finally winning the Derby, I’m sure John Ed Anthony will be satisfied with the consolation prize of winning the Matt Winn. So many horses have won that race to go on and lose a bunch of other races the rest of the year…

And I doubt he’d get a kick out of winning the Preakness again. Been there, done that.

In the case of Mandaloun, Cox said the degree of effort the colt put into his Derby placing was one of the considerations.

Yeah, I would prefer to run in the Preakness off a horrendous race where the horse made no kind of effort. It’s good punishment to wheel ‘em back in that scenario.

“He ran extremely well and hard [in the Derby],” said Cox. “To run him back in two weeks, we feel like it may compromise his ability to run the rest of the year and not only the rest of the year but maybe as an older horse. In the best interests of the horse we feel like to run him back in two weeks is just not the right thing for him.”

Well, yeah, if Cox was silly enough to win a classic race with the colt, I suppose he would compromise the horse’s ability to run as an older horse because they would probably retire him at the end of the year.

Actually, I think the sheer fact that the horse is by Into Mischief is enough to compromise his ability to run as an older horse if Juddmonte decides to start dispersing some of their stock.

Cox had already announced that Essential Quality would skip the Preakness and set sights on the G1 Travers. On Thursday he said he was still mapping out the big gray's route to the Travers, but the G2 Jim Dandy could set up as a possible prep.

Wait…how many days does it take to draw a map to the Travers?

In the last 30 years (ignoring 2020), only a handful of horses have won the Travers that did not start in either the Jim Dandy, Haskell, or Los Alamitos Derby (previously the Swaps at Hollywood).

Those were:
Arrogate - conditioned allowance
Catholic Boy - Belmont Derby
Code of Honor - Dwyer
Golden Ticket - conditioned allowance

So yeah, either (1) sit on him and run him off the bench, (2) run in the Dwyer and sit on him, or (3) run in one of the 2 glaringly obvious races which have accounted for not only the vast majority of Travers winners but probably over 95% of the placings as well down to 4th place.

Wait…now that I think about it, Los Alamitos should go full bore to entice Essential Quality out to California for the race. The Sheik’s entourage alone should double normal daily attendance (and they can stay for the Quarters!)

Even if Cox had three weeks between the Derby and the Preakness, he admitted he would still likely skip the race.

I sure wish he had made his Travers map earlier. Then maybe working backwards he could have skipped losing the Derby and instead waited for the Preakness.

“I don't think it's so much a question of whether you feel confident your horse will run well [in the Preakness]” said Cox. “I think it's the question of what happens after that; it's like going to Saudi Arabia or Dubai and coming back.

I can’t wrap my head around this.

In terms of distance, traveling between Kentucky and Maryland is not as grueling as shipping to the Arabian peninsula.

In terms of climate, the difference in weather between Kentucky and Maryland is not as radical as shipping to the Arabian peninsula.

Even in terms of urban crime, going from downtown Louisville to northwest Baltimore is not that much of a change. And don’t forget Mandaloun wintered in Mid-City New Orleans.

In this case you're talking about the effects of two grueling races in a short period of time that could take their toll. For these 3-year-olds we feel like to have them at their best on Travers Day, on Haskell Day we need to give them more time between races.

I know last year was all screwy, but the Triple Crown is still the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, right?

Did they switch it to the Derby, Haskell, and Travers or something?

Does that make the Discovery Stakes the new Travers?

“I just am not a big fan of running back in two weeks unless you win the Derby and your horse comes out of it well.”

Well, seeing how you have had so much success in the classics at this point, I’ll defer to you.

But the numbers seem to say otherwise. In the past 45 years:

8 Preakness winners did not start in the Derby in their prior start.

17 Preakness winners won the Derby in their prior start (including 4 TC winners).

and…you guessed it…

20 Preakness winners lost the Derby in their prior start.

Cox could not say yet whether he would send any runners to the Belmont.

Only 5 weeks in between and you have to run 12 furlongs? Fucl< that.

That’s like surviving an earthquake in Haiti, escaping the subsequent cholera outbreak by braving a voyage across the Caribbean on a migrant raft made of sheep bladders, reaching Honduras and outflanking CIA-funded death squads through anaconda-infested jungle, hitching a ride in Oaxaca with a coyote dude on the back of a turnip truck through cartel territory and miraculously reaching Tijuana, only to end up waking up in a bathtub full of ice after a night of partying in Zona Norte and finding out you’re missing a kidney…

“Honestly I'll just see how things play out in the Preakness and who's going to show up in the Belmont,” he said.

Does anyone really think that this dude’s Travers map is going to include the Belmont Stakes?

He might have a runner in the Dwyer if we are lucky…