Was there really a rail bias?

I was watching all the dirt Breeders Cup races and I sort of convinced myself that there wasnt a rail bias. Lets go through the races here.

Dreaming Of Anna - She raced in the 3-4 path the entire time until they turned for home and then she went into the 1 path and kicked clear from Octave. Octave actually raced on the inside of DOA the entire race until they turned for home.

Round Pond - Well she raced on the rail the entire time. However, she actually went to the outside of the 3 horse around the turn. Then she sort of got boxed in. Then when they turned for home, the only spot for her to go was the rail. The 9 went wide and Prado sent Round Pond through the rail. Asi Siempre, prob would have won the race with a better trip. In this case, I dont think you can say it was a rail bias.

Thors Echo - Well he was no where near the rail. He went 3-4 wide around two horses and turned for home and just kicked clear. He actually moved over the 2 hole late in the race when he was well clear and there were no challengers. I will say that there was no rail bias in this race.

Street Sense - Well the 1st two finsihers were last and 2nd to last. The pace was freaking fast for these horses and Street Sense was closing ground all the way down the back stretch. Borel didnt even switch leads or whip the horse. Stormello had the rail but he didnt help him at all. So why would it help Street Sense and not Stormello?? I think that we saw a freak performance to a horse won lost by a nose to Quay and who was training like a monster at Churchill. I will say that there was not a rail bias in this race either. If there was, how do you explain Stormello?

Invasor - Well we all know he went extremely wide. But if there was a rail bias then why did Brother Derek do better than he did. Why would the 1st and 2nd place horse go wide around the turn to win. Again, I dont think there was a rail bias in this race.

I think that it was just a freak day where we saw the 1 horse win. Dreaming Of Anna was the best horse in her race. Street Sense was a huge underlay based on his last race and they way he loves Churchill. Thors Echo just lost to Bornordaro and had a 116 beyer. Round Pond is a Grade I winner in a race where the 2 favs broke down. So I am not buying the rail bias.

[pba1817]

I was there, and there was an obvious rail bias early in the day. Not sure if the cooler weather that came on later in the day made any difference in the bias or just the way the track is harrowed.

It was very much a factor in some of the races held that day... but when is there no bias ever to be ran against?

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I was watching all the dirt Breeders Cup races and I sort of convinced myself that there wasnt a rail bias. Lets go through the races here.

Dreaming Of Anna - She raced in the 3-4 path the entire time until they turned for home and then she went into the 1 path and kicked clear from Octave. Octave actually raced on the inside of DOA the entire race until they turned for home.

Round Pond - Well she raced on the rail the entire time. However, she actually went to the outside of the 3 horse around the turn. Then she sort of got boxed in. Then when they turned for home, the only spot for her to go was the rail. The 9 went wide and Prado sent Round Pond through the rail. Asi Siempre, prob would have won the race with a better trip. In this case, I dont think you can say it was a rail bias.

Thors Echo - Well he was no where near the rail. He went 3-4 wide around two horses and turned for home and just kicked clear. He actually moved over the 2 hole late in the race when he was well clear and there were no challengers. I will say that there was no rail bias in this race.

Street Sense - Well the 1st two finsihers were last and 2nd to last. The pace was freaking fast for these horses and Street Sense was closing ground all the way down the back stretch. Borel didnt even switch leads or whip the horse. Stormello had the rail but he didnt help him at all. So why would it help Street Sense and not Stormello?? I think that we saw a freak performance to a horse won lost by a nose to Quay and who was training like a monster at Churchill. I will say that there was not a rail bias in this race either. If there was, how do you explain Stormello?

Invasor - Well we all know he went extremely wide. But if there was a rail bias then why did Brother Derek do better than he did. Why would the 1st and 2nd place horse go wide around the turn to win. Again, I dont think there was a rail bias in this race.

I think that it was just a freak day where we saw the 1 horse win. Dreaming Of Anna was the best horse in her race. Street Sense was a huge underlay based on his last race and they way he loves Churchill. Thors Echo just lost to Bornordaro and had a 116 beyer. Round Pond is a Grade I winner in a race where the 2 favs broke down. So I am not buying the rail bias.

Did anyone see the article about how they scraped the inside rail after training on race day and spread that dirt all over the middle part of the track? If that's the case (which, I'm told, is) then yes, there was an advantage to being on the rail. I think common sense dictates that, but you're right... good horses won all day, regardless of being inside. But were the ones on the outside compromised? That is the question. Good horses out there didn't run to par, for whatever reason. Could they all have had off days?

My friend's horse ran in the first race and broke from the outside at, um, odds of 7-2 I think (gotta look at the chart) and was told, by the jockey, that the rail would be the place to be that day.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

So why would it help Street Sense and not Stormello??

Maybe because Stormello was close to that fast pace you mentioned and Street Sense wasn't?

Nakatani said that he had to take Thor's Echo off the rail for fear of running over horses in front of him.

Round Pond exploded when she was moved to the rail.

Octave was moving strongly until Gomez switched her out, then she just flattened out.

Yes, there was a rail bias. How much more evidence do you need? The trainers say so, the jockeys say so, pretty much anyone who was at the track or watched the races says so, and four of the five dirt races were won by the inside horse.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

its still the place to be ..calvin b ran up it 4 times today ...he s the only one that gets it..

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

its still the place to be ..calvin b ran up it 4 times today ...he s the only one that gets it..

I cant tell you how much money I have made on Calvin this fall meet. This prob the best meet I have ever had at Churchill.

[brianwspencer]

let's not forget that the simple geometry of being on the rail never hurts either.

[Downthestretch55]

Euro,
Scuds had this figured out after the 3rd race, so I'll let him tell you.
Steve also made mention of the scraping that was done the night before.
Go a few pages back and read the comments that Scuds made as the races were happening. Good insights.
As far as me and rail bias? Heck, I never met a rail I didn't like...I'm not biased at all.

Originally Posted by Downthestretch55

Euro,
Scuds had this figured out after the 3rd race, so I'll let him tell you.
Steve also made mention of the scraping that was done the night before.
Go a few pages back and read the comments that Scuds made as the races were happening. Good insights.
As far as me and rail bias? Heck, I never met a rail I didn't like...I'm not biased at all.

Thanks DTS. I will check them out. You the man.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I cant tell you how much money I have made on Calvin this fall meet. This prob the best meet I have ever had at Churchill.

Calvin knows where the lilly pads are. Give him a live mount and he will threaten. I cant understand why some of the big timr trainers dont utilize him more often.. Do any of you think he will keep Street Sense? As far as a rail bias, when the best horses run on the rail it will look like a rail bias. I agree with euro. Can you name one of the horses that won that wasnt the best horse Sat.

[jpops757]

In the Juvi race Borel just barely made it through.The hole was closing up on him. He actually gt bumped squeezing through. If the tiring horses would have blocked him all we would be talking about was the bad ride or we wouldnt even realized what a live horse Street Sense was.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Calvin knows where the lilly pads are. Give him a live mount and he will threaten. I cant understand why some of the big timr trainers dont utilize him more often.. Do any of you think he will keep Street Sense? As far as a rail bias, when the best horses run on the rail it will look like a rail bias. I agree with euro. Can you name one of the horses that won that wasnt the best horse Sat.

How are we supposed to know who the best horse is if there's such a blatant bias? It's the chicken and the egg.

You have to go by margin of victory. Street Sense was probably best no matter what, but I can't confidently say that Round Pond was the best horse in her race or that Thor's Echo was the best horse in his. I think Dreaming of Anna was the best horse in her race, but that's just because I'm a fan of hers and think she has superior ability to any other 2-year-old filly.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

How are we supposed to know who the best horse is if there's such a blatant bias? It's the chicken and the egg.

You have to go by margin of victory. Street Sense was probably best no matter what, but I can't confidently say that Round Pond was the best horse in her race or that Thor's Echo was the best horse in his. I think Dreaming of Anna was the best horse in her race, but that's just because I'm a fan of hers and think she has superior ability to any other 2-year-old filly.

Who would you say was the best horse in the Distaff? Pine Island and Fleet Indian didnt finish. Who does that leave. There were 13 Grade I winners in that field. And Thor's Echo had one of the best beyers and ran a good 2nd to Bordornaro.

Boy then Invasor was the best horse in the BCC by much more than 1 length. I know they had Berni measured and shut down late stretch, but if there was a big bias in that race, Invasor ran a more than fantastic race. In fact, one might say no horse was even close to him.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Maybe because Stormello was close to that fast pace you mentioned and Street Sense wasn't?

Nakatani said that he had to take Thor's Echo off the rail for fear of running over horses in front of him.

Round Pond exploded when she was moved to the rail.

Octave was moving strongly until Gomez switched her out, then she just flattened out.

Yes, there was a rail bias. How much more evidence do you need? The trainers say so, the jockeys say so, pretty much anyone who was at the track or watched the races says so, and four of the five dirt races were won by the inside horse.

If there was such a rail bias , why did the jockeys keep giving up the rail to the winners comming through? If the jockeys knew there was a bias does it mean some of them are just too dumb to block it .

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by jpops757

If there was such a rail bias , why did the jockeys keep giving up the rail to the winners comming through? If the jockeys knew there was a bias does it mean some of them are just too dumb to block it .

How can you block the rail from the rail horse?

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

How can you block the rail from the rail horse?

When they are many lengths nbehind you. Street Sense didnt win on the lead.

No track offers the wagering opportunities that Churchill does when using track conditions and configuration.

A few days prior to the cup we posted: www.dmtc.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6933

Also posted yesterday at Thorograph regarding the turf course. Good cappin. BBB

[slotdirt]

Stupid me had the top horse in the last four races, but couldn't get the underneath for the exacta. Except in the last, of course, but that was too easy. Better Talk Now just kills betters.

Anyway, obviously there was a rail bias.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by jpops757

When they are many lengths nbehind you. Street Sense didnt win on the lead.

Who said anything about being on the lead? The point is he had the rail for much of the race, and that was a distinct advantage.