Will this be a SLOW derby 5-6-17 ?

[Secretriat34]

We need to assess with statistics how fast or slow these preps have been.
We need a listing of fractional times.

Anyone have that data

[cakes44]

To answer the thread topic/question:

YES

[Secretriat34]

opinions need data to create facts...we need more data Mr. Spock

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by Secretriat34

We need to assess with statistics how fast or slow these preps have been.
We need a listing of fractional times.

Anyone have that data

Final times fastest to slowest:

Florida Derby 1:47.2
Sunland Derby 1:48
Arkansas Derby 1:48.4
Louisiana Derby 1:49.4
Blue Grass 1:50.3
Wood Memorial 1:50.4
Santa Anita Derby 1:51

I skipped Dubai, due to the distance.
In terms of how the tracks were playing,you probably have to check the track variants........In terms of the circuits I bet,I can tell you the obvious:

GP was playing quick that day.
OP was playing normal.
SA was playing slow......that track had been playing slow for quite some time(it sure seems like the Mandella will be strong in the KY Oaks off of her scary gallop on SA Derby day).
The other tracks you'll have to check with the regulars on this board who play those circuits year round........I just don't know how they played.
I suppose if you want speed figs this would be the right board for you.
The sheet players might have some useful info for you also.

I get that the FLA DY went fast.......but I don't know that I trust it.
I'm sort of with the surprised majority,I think the Sunland Derby was really legit.
I do think the ARK DY was a true race........kind of think it's going to be sneaky productive.
The SA DY is tricky..........it wasn't pretty to watch,but at the time the SA surface was playing oddball deep.
I just can't get a read on the SA DY one way or another..........gun to my head,I don't think it's as bad as some folks think it is.

[MaTH716]

When I think of the Florida Derby I think speed was good that day. Castellano took Gunnevera so far back that he was out of the picture for the first 7/8 of that race. He made up a ton of ground on a biased track. In my opinion that race for him is much better than it looks and Javy sticks around to ride.

[Secretriat34]

I have a number of questions that stem from the derby preps.
And after i write them here, you will conclude as have i, that derby 143 is a wide open betting race.

Always Dreaming, while winning impressively in a good time has some down side. AD may bounce , this was his first stakes race, and while he ran well, it was not a Big Brown, Barbaro, type of WOW race. Also, Battalion Runner was Pletchers go to colt; Who scratched and went to the Wood. There Batallion Runner, ran well, but he ran into Irish War Cry, who can win at 9f on the lead, but can he win at 10f in Louisville given that running style. I can type on and on about the inconsistency in the winners of all the last round of preps. There are questions about who will step up 5-6-17, and run like a champion.

Inconsistency and slow times result in the lack of a definite stand out colt leader. The winner of the BCJ, Classic Empire ran well, but he was defeated by IWC in the Holy Bull so does that make IWC the leader, who for some reason ran a 76 beyer in the FOY. Its these types on inconsistencies that draw me to conclude that the race will pay well, At The Windows.

After IWC defeated CE, IWC was number 1, then he ran like crap 1 month later in the FOY losing by 21 lengths. from then on its been one new leader after each prep race. AD wins in FLA, and now he's the leader. Then CM steps it up in Arkansas after missing training and he's the leader . But does he have the foundation to run all 10f in 11 days. Its not like he is Streetsense who had an abbreviated prep schedule on purpose. CE lack of racing as a colt is an injury thing. Girvin is consistent , but he has a lack of derby winning speed. And Conquest Mo Money, this years Sun King, (always the bridesmaid, never the bride) always ITM, but not in the picture circle.

The SA derby simply lacked talent. Mastery was by far the best out on the island west of here, but he injured, leaving nothing in his wake, but some also rans, like Gormley, Battle of Midway, Royal Mo. Hence, Irap, Practical Joke, State of Honor, Guneverra who defeated CE and Practical joke (1,3 in the BCJ): any of these could have a great sunny first Saturday in May, feeling their oats and generating the chemicals colts create in the spring of the 3 year old season.

So its wide open, doubt if Thunder Snow can get it done, no pedigree.
for $140 you can play a 10/15 exacta, and this may be the best , SAFEST bet of the day.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

When I think of the Florida Derby I think speed was good that day. Castellano took Gunnevera so far back that he was out of the picture for the first 7/8 of that race. He made up a ton of ground on a biased track. In my opinion that race for him is much better than it looks and Javy sticks around to ride.

even though he came home what, a laboring 3rd not making up much ground, from a distance/travel standpoint i thought he ran a better race than the winner. From the post, having to rush to the rail, all while taking back to dead last to avoid being put in the parking lot.
I thought Always Dreaming had a very "easy" stalk and pounce trip but i wasn't overjoyed with him by any means. I actually think he's in a prime spot to run up the track come derby day

-bt-

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

When I think of the Florida Derby I think speed was good that day. Castellano took Gunnevera so far back that he was out of the picture for the first 7/8 of that race. He made up a ton of ground on a biased track. In my opinion that race for him is much better than it looks and Javy sticks around to ride.

Im still watching replays of this race...probably old news but I think that was the plan all along once the post position was drawn. Take him back and see what he could do with a few better horses signed up. I havent jumped off the Gunnervera wagon yet and may not...will wait on the derby draw

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by casp0555

Im still watching replays of this race...probably old news but I think that was the plan all along once the post position was drawn. Take him back and see what he could do with a few better horses signed up. I havent jumped off the Gunnervera wagon yet and may not...will wait on the derby draw

I agree Billy, everyone spends hours studying and then it rains or their horse gets a bad post. I like waiting till the last second to form an opinion. I have an idea about certain horses, but I'll wait till some of the intangibles are out of the way until I narrow.

[Mike A]

Saw them posted on twitter, check these timelines - @ronflatter or @DerbyContenders

Also @Derby1592 posted final times for all runners based on @TimeFormUSfigs

I tried to post the links, but I'm a knucklehead http://www.mazeguy.net/surprised/dizzy.gif

I could post a few if you are looking for certain horses

[Secretriat34]

Originally Posted by Mike A

Saw them posted on twitter, check these timelines - @ronflatter or @DerbyContenders

Also @Derby1592 posted final times for all runners based on @TimeFormUSfigs

What does this mean ??

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I agree Billy, everyone spends hours studying and then it rains or their horse gets a bad post. I like waiting till the last second to form an opinion. I have an idea about certain horses, but I'll wait till some of the intangibles are out of the way until I narrow.

At this point the only shorter priced horses I'm considering using are Irish War Cry and Gunnevera. I want to believe the Sunland Derby was a fluke, but can't deny how Irap and Conquest Mo Money ran out of it, so Hence is going to be in the mix for me as well. J Boys Echo and and Always Dreaming were set up in their big wins and think they will both be up the track.

Most wide open Derby I've seen in quite a while.

[Mike A]

Sorry for not being a little more clear.
They have fractions for last 3f and 1f from the their last prep race

@timeformUS has final predicted times for Derby 2017