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#1
05-06-2016, 10:39 PM
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5/7: Churchill Downs (142nd Kentucky Derby)
CHURCHILL DOWNS
POST-SCRATCHES 1st: OC/C, 3+, 1m (P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Geothermal 4-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Rise Up 5-2 5th Exotics Use: #3 Rocket Time 3-1 WON ($5.20) 2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD) Best Value: #4 Pinson 10-1 6th Next Best: #3 Divine Interventio 7-2 7th Exotics Use: #1e Oxley entry 5-2 2nd/3rd Super Add: #8 Unexplained 4-1 5th 3rd: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #7 Jazzy Times 3-1 WON ($5.00) Best Value: #11 Grand Candy 5-1 2nd Next Best: #10 Jimbo Fallon 4-1 3rd Exotics Use: #1 Seeking the Soul 7-2 5th 4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD) A bad group that should make you think twice about heavy investment in the P5.. Best Value: #2 Crafty's Way 5-1 4th Next Best: #1 Havana Dream 4-1 3rd Exotics Use: #6 Res Ipsa 6-1 WON ($14.40) Super Add: #9 Koala Lake 15-1 9th 5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD) Best Value: #3 Allied Air Raid 6-1 3rd Next Best: #12 Gotham News 5-1 2nd Exotics Use: #10 Freestyler 4-1 6th Super Add: #2 Bold Conquest 9-2 5th P4 Grid: 2: 3-4 (A), 1-8 (B), 2 (C) 3: 7 (A), - (B), 10-11 (C) 4: 1-2-6 (A), 9-10-11 (B), - (C) 5: 3-10-12 (A), 1-2-4 (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x6 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 2x1x3x3 = $18 6th: 31st Churchill Downs Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Tepin 1-2 WON ($2.60) Best Value: #9 Rainha Da Bateria 12-1 2nd Next Best: #4 Isabella Sings 3-1 7th Exotics Use: #7 She's Not Here 15-1 6th 7th: 82nd Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD) Best Value: #6 Speightster 6-1 8th Next Best: #5 Limousine Liberal 9-2 6th Exotics Use: #7 Holy Boss 8-1 5th Super Add: #9 Catalina Red 15-1 WON ($30.20) P5 Grid: 3: 7 (A), 10-11 (B), - (C) 4: 1-2-6 (A), 9-10-11 (B), - (C) 5: 3-10-12 (A), 1-2-4 (B), - (C) 6: 1 (A), - (B), 4-9 (C) 7: 6 (A), - (B), 1-3-5-7-8-9 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x6x6x1x1 = 108 x .50 = $54 All A's: 1x3x3x1x1 = $9 8th: 30th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #10 Wavell Avenue 3-1 4th Best Value: #6 Enchanting Lady 8-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Stonetastic 3-1 2nd Exotics Use: #9 Birdatthewire 5-1 5th P4 Grid: 5: 3-10-12 (A), 1-2-4 (B), - (C) 6: 1 (A), - (B), 4-9 (C) 7: 5-6 (A), 7-9 (B), 1-3-8 (C) 8: 6-10 (A), 2-8-9 (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 6x1x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60 All A's: 3x1x2x2 = $12 $0.50 Pick 4 (4/1,2,6/9/8) Pays $501.60 9th: 25th American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Airoforce 4-1 4th Next Best: #8 Shakhimat 5-1 9th Best Value: #4 Beach Patrol 8-1 2nd Exotics Use:: #11 Dressed in Hermes 5-1 7th 10th: 92nd Pat Day Mile (G3), 3yo, 1m (P3, DD) Best Value: #11 AMERICAN FREEDOM 6-1 6th Next Best: #13 Star Hill 10-1 3rd Exotics Use: #6 Sharp Azteca 8-1 WON ($28.20) Super Add: #10 Cocked and Loaded 6-1 14th 11th: 29th Woodford Reserve (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #8 Divisidero 15-1 WON ($15.40) Best Value: #11 World Approval 20-1 2nd Next Best: #10 Tourist 8-1 4th Exotic Use: #12 Big Blue Kitten 5-2 5th 12th: 142nd Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super Hi-5) As always, a wonderful 2 weeks in Louisville, typically my favorite part of the broadcast year. I hope everyone garnered info they feel is helping them approach the most unique event in our game. As discussed, I want to swing for fences with outsiders among this odd assembly and remain comfortable with the original quartet I presented last week for the Xpressbet Guide. My Man Sam, Creator, Majesto and Suddenbreakingnews offer a variety of styles and forward progress that make them eligible for success here. I'm adding Mor Spirit, who I've liked from start of career and will use these 5 alone and with Nyquist, Outwork and Brody's in exacta and trifecta savers. I've maintained that this is a Derby with a great potential for chaos and that can even be the case if one of the major players succeeds. Be in a position to capitalize either way by boxing up as many inventive options as you can afford while hooking them up with the keyed favorite(s) you prefer.. Most Likely: #6 My Man Sam 20-1 11th Next Best: #3 Creator 10-1 13th Best Value: #18 Majesto 30-1 18th Exotics Use: #2 Suddenbreakingnews 20-1 5th Super Add: #17 Mor Spirit 12-1 10th Cover Candidates: #13 Nyquist 3-1; #15 Outwork 15-1; #19 Brody's Cause 12-1 P5 Grid: 8: 2-6-10 (A), - (B), 8-9 (C) 9: 1-8 (A), 4 (B), 11-12-13 (C) 10: 11 (A), - (B), 6-10-13 (C) 11: 8-10-11 (A), - (B), 1-3-4-5-6-12 (C) 12: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-8-10-20 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x3x1x3x8 = 216 x .50 = $108 All A's: 3x2x1x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36 P4 Grid: 9: 1-8 (A), 4 (B), 11-12-13 (C) 10: 11 (A), - (B), 6-10-13 (C) 11: 8-10-11 (A), 1-4-12 (B), 3-5-6-7-9 (C) 12: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-8-10-20 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x1x6x8 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 2x1x3x4 = $24 ($12 for .50) Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3 Grid: KO: 3-11-13 (A), 2-8-12 (B), 4-6-7 (C) WR: 8-10-11-12 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C) KD: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-10 (C) Simple (A+B): 6x4x8 = 192 x .50 = $96 All A's: 3x4x4 = 48 x .50 = $24 $0.50 P3 (12-8-13) $197.45 Oaks-Derby DBL: KO: 3-11-13 (A), 2-8-12 (B), 4-6-7 (C) KD: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-10 (C) Simple (A+B): 6x8 = $48 All A's: 3x4 = $12 ($24 for $2; $60 for $5, etc.) $1 DD (12-13) $29.40 13th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (DD) Most Likely: #5 Sonoma Crush 7-2 10th Next Best: #4 Mkubwa 4-1 5th Best Value: #9 Harlan Punch 12-1 3rd Exotics Use: #6 Smart Moon 4-1 4th 14th: MSW, 3+, 9f This is a VERY good and competitive group of 3+ MDN's, but we may have the ultimate 'get out' play for the weekend in the latest Lemons Forever colt that Dallas Stewart told us all about. In addition to being the brother of Forever Unbridled and Unbridled Forever, watched him fly down the stretch effortlessly in :59.4 last Friday and gallop out huge around the turn. Gets 9f he wants and it will take a really good horse to beat him.. Best Value: #6 FOREVER D'ORO 6-1 5th Next Best: #3 Race Me Home 5-1 WON ($23.20) Exotics Use: #4 Conquest War Cry 6-1 6th Super Add: #12 Goats Town 7-2 7th P4 Grid: 11: 8-10-11-12 (A), 1-3-4-7 (B), 2-5-6-9 (C) 12: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-8-10-20 (C) 13: 4-5-9 (A), - (B), 6-9 (C) 14: 6 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C) Simple (A+B): 8x8x3x1 = 192 x .50 = $96 All A's: 4x4x3x1 = 48 x .50 = $24 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 05-08-2016 at 03:33 PM. 
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#2
05-07-2016, 07:02 AM
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Steve,
Thanks so much for the awesome Derby coverage, I enjoyed it immensely. Best of luck! Loose
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#3
05-07-2016, 07:25 AM
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#4
05-07-2016, 07:42 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
05-07-2016, 09:38 AM
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Thanks a lot.. Always a thrill being here for this. Let's get lucky today!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
05-07-2016, 09:39 AM
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Love that you're on the same players. Going to be a fun day. BOL!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#8
05-07-2016, 09:41 AM
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hondo! Thanks.. and  Plenty of opps on the slate today. That race didn't belong though.. Have a julep for me. When I drank, I was always was good for exactly one a Derby.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
05-07-2016, 04:02 PM
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I really hope you're right! I'm sitting on a hefty 'All Others' bet from KDFW Pool 2, and any of your first 4 horses would do it for me. In case I haven't said it recently, thanks a bunch for all you do here.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#10
05-07-2016, 06:18 PM
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Boss you are amazing.
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