Saratoga 7/24 Opening Day Analysis

[ateamstupid]

1st: I'm betting #5 Sea Raven if he's his 3-1 M/L price or higher. His last two races were a big step forward for him on the Thoro-Graph scale and he broke his maiden at this track and distance last summer in a dominant effort at 12-1. He gets a big positive rider switch and though he's an off-the-pace type, he's proven he doesn't need a fast pace up front to be successful. #3 Beyond Empire will probably go favored off a respectable runner-up finish last out in his first start back from a disastrous trip to Dubai. He figures to improve second off the layoff and stretching back out to two turns. #1 Royal Posse is dangerous off the claim for Michael Dubb, who is routinely near the top of the owner standings at Saratoga and shows confidence by stepping this gelding up into allowance company off a $20,000 claim. Castellano keeps the mount and the rail draw is generally a benefit in these nine-furlong tests. #4 Moneyinyour Pocket rounded back to a big race last out, winning by open lengths at a shade under 10-1 and he's another with success at this distance, having run second to future stakes winner Red Vine at 16-1 last fall at Aqueduct.

2nd: Incredibly deep NY-bred 2-year-old race where it will help to see the toteboard before playing. #1 Lemon Liqueur is dangerous just by way of being a Rick Violette trained baby, but she draws the intimidating rail post and is bred on both sides to be better on grass. She has to be used, but there will likely be better value elsewhere. #2 Flatware, a homebred from a stable that points to Saratoga, is bred to be pretty nice for Mark Hennig. Her dam, Culinary, won the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie as a 2-year-old with an 87 Beyer and continued to be a nice runner at 3, 4 and 5, finishing with a career Beyer top of 94 and $271,680 in earnings. The early returns on her as a broodmare have been good too, foaling Dattts Cool (80 Beyer top at 2), Coastline (2-year-old winner, 86 Beyer top at 2) and Sky Bistro (2-year-old debut winner). Watch the board on this filly in particular, as Hennig firsters are usually bet hard when live. #3 Night Madam warrants a look if nothing else because of the presence of Castellano, but Gary Contessa's barn was ice cold at Belmont. #4 Lady's First is by Ghostzapper out of a dam who was 3-for-3 as a 2-year-old and shows several fast works for Dallas Stewart. #5 Argyle Gal is a Wesley Ward firster, so enough said there. #6 Here Comes Rosie is bred to win early for the 27% Jeremiah Englehart barn and appears to have shown some ability in the mornings. #8 Sue's Nice Shadow is from a very good dam, but is by a cheaper sire who's only 5-for-89 with his firsters. #10 Freudsalm is by Freud out of a Songandaprayer mare, more win early pedigree, and goes out for a sharp barn and rider. I can really make a good case for any of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 10.

3rd: Weak NY-bred maiden claimer on the turf where it's tough to stomach a lot of the field. #1 Dacoma is the horse to beat by virtue of only having lost twice and dropping out of two much tougher fields, but it's not like she did any particular running in either race. I'm giving #3 Hope's Roar one more chance, as her race 4/26 at AQU would make her a big contender in here. Her last two have not been good, but she had a wide post and was wrangled off a slow pace (big surprise) last out and she'll be a square price today. #7 Khaleesi Kat is obvious on the drop for Bill Mott. She's out of a high-quality turf dam and gets Lasix and blinkers today. She's yet to beat a horse though and it's doubtful you'll get her 6-1 M/L price. Although she's a little slow on paper, I'll use #9 Saratoga by Design at a big price. She gets first time Lasix and draws into a race where there's no speed on paper. Her lone turf race wasn't great, but it was a big improvement over her dirt form and it came off a 211-day layoff. She could get brave up front. #12 Weekend Hottie has races that make her a contender and gets Castellano, but it's hard to forgive her last race when she was a no-excuse 3rd at a tick below even-money against a brutal field.

4th: It's hard for me to picture a scenario in which #6 Moment Is Right and #7 Positively Royal don't run one-two around the track in either order. The former was impressive in the Astoria after a blowout debut win, opening a clear lead and appearing measured by favored Decked Out in midstretch, then re-rallying gamely to hold that one off. Positively Royal was an easy winner in her debut and has come back to work very sharply for Pletcher. #8 Banree is not impossible, but just don't think she has the early foot to keep up with the top two. Don't really want #1 Decked Out, as while she definitely has some ability, she really had no excuse not to get by Moment Is Right last out and she's now had three cross-country trips in less than two months.

5th: #4 Reversiontothemean is my biggest play of the day. The 4-year-old filly jumped way forward when moved to turf at Suffolk last year, then had to be laid up for 268 days, but came back with a very nice 3rd at 45-1 when off a beat slow and wide in an obvious prep race 12 days ago. Her connections made sure she couldn't be claimed that day, which was an interesting step to take for a horse that didn't exactly figure to be a hot item at the claim box. Metivier now switches riders to Leparoux, who he connected with on a 24-1 winner in the meet opener a few years back. This is strong intent through and through and at anything close to her 20-1 M/L, she's huge value in a mediocre race.

6th: This has the look of a very live 2-year-old filly race which may end up producing better horses than the Schuylerville. #2 Just Wicked was bet like she couldn't lose in her turf debut and came up narrowly short behind a good-looking Tom Proctor firster, figures to like dirt just fine. #4 Welcoming has been burning up the track in the morning for Christophe Clement and brought $520,000 at auction last September. #5 Anna House was a $600,000 purchase for Stonestreet and looks like quality for Pletcher, while Terri Pompay reaches out to Castellano for #8 First Salute. #9 Lady Devil sold for a whopping 48 times her sire's stud fee after running a quarter-mile in :20 4/5 and goes out for Chad Brown. Bright futures abound in here.

7th: Super-deep turf allowance that looks like a spread leg to start the late Pick 4. #1 The Tea Cups has really come into her own for the aforementioned Jeremiah Englehart and came back from a 259-day layoff with a big win last out despite a wide trip. Switches to the inside draw this time and she could be even better with that race under her belt. Has already won on this turf too. #2 Pure of Spirit is competitive on Thoro-Graph figures, but is facing a much tougher field today. #4 Lahinch Classics was awful at 1-2 last time out, but ran a decent race in her U.S. debut before that and will be the rare Chad Brown horse to go off at a decent price this meet. Prefer her to her next-door stablemate #5 Bishop's Pond, though I'll use that one defensively. #7 Sequiota has to get faster on paper, but she's been working nicely at Fair Hill, including a rare turf breeze there, and I'm not excluding Tom Proctor and Jose Lezcano in a grass route at a huge price. #8 Asperites could prove to be a nice acquisition for the Ramseys and is a big threat as their first starter of the meet. It's a major positive that they put her in an allowance first off the $30,000 claim considering how aggressive they are in jamming layover horses into claiming races to win owner titles. I loved #9 Ascot Girl's debut (you can read my thoughts on it here); her subsequent two races were plainly poor, but they were both over very soggy turf courses that she may not have cared for and she's eligible to bounce back on firm ground at a big number. #12 Trophee is obviously a big danger, but it's tough to take too short a price on anyone in here.

8th: #2 Juba is the horse to beat on paper dropping back into allowance company, but he should face serious pace pressure to his outside from #4 Scatter Joy and Jimmy Jerkens had a slow Belmont meet by his standards. He'll be overbet. Not sure why #3 Doubledown Again should be his 8-1 M/L price as he's run nothing but fast races since being claimed by Michelle Nevin here last summer. I'll also use #6 Doc Almon. The cutback to six furlongs is key -- he's 15/7-3-1 at this distance compared to 13/1-2-4 at all others. I liked him a lot last time and he got a bit unlucky -- when Havana didn't break with the field, Classy Class was able to get away up front with an easy first 1/4 and the closers couldn't quite reel him in. Expect the pace to be more heated today. Those are the main three I want, but I'll use #8 Pulling G's defensively.

9th: Love #12 Partisan Politics in here. She showed talent from the get-go for Chad Brown and ran much better than it looks behind Lady Eli in the BC Juvy Fillies Turf last fall. In her first start since that race, she was a good closing 2nd behind Celestine last month when that one was able to press a moderate pace and narrowly hold on. You never know in NY turf races, but there figures to be much more hitting in front of her today, with Celestine, Cara Marie, Lady Zuzu and Feathered all front-running types and several others who aren't slow early. With the potential to move forward 2nd start off the layoff and the best rider in the game aboard, Partisan Politics should be very tough to hold off if the race is run close to fairly.

10th: 14-horse scramble where I hate to go chalky, but I really have a tough time making a strong case for anyone other than #4 Big Blue Talent and #14 Kowboy Boots. I much prefer the former, however. Pretty much all of his races last year would blow this field away and the drop in class and turnback to seven furlongs are big positives for this Talent Search gelding. He's also slightly dirtied up off his last two. The race two-back is a total toss -- he's not a turf horse and that race (surprise) had a crawling pace. Last out, he was running on seven days rest and chased wide on a fast pace by the official fractions (Parx timer is a little iffy), then was eased up late when dropping out of contention. Expecting him to get back to form in here and I trust Paco to work out a decent trip.

Good luck everyone for a great meet!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

nice write up ateam gl this meet

[knickslions2]

Good stuff Ateam!! Reversiontothemean was on my list of top bets today also. That race has good value all over it! Good luck today

[ateamstupid]

Bah, almost got Saratoga by Design home at 14-1. If only that race were a flat mile.

[ateamstupid]

LOL Paco is so arrogant. Winner in the first and winner in the last for me today, not much besides that. I'll post a Pick 5 play tomorrow.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

LOL Paco is so arrogant. Winner in the first and winner in the last, not much besides that.

Is he fulltime Saratoga or just up for the day and back collecting checks against the JV at Monmouth?

[TheSpyder]

Nice job Ateam!