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07-12-2014, 12:18 AM
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Arlington Saturday 7/12 - Million Preview Day
Hopefully I can give myself a nice introduction to the forum!
R1: #2 Superstar Leo reared at the start from the inside in his race debut losing a couple of lengths before proceeding to rush up onto the heels of the leader (#6 in this race) and still fought on very well before yielding late on. Very good debut performance considering the circumstances. If he breaks clean---maybe post 1 is an issue, however---he should be able to harness his energy and last the extra half furlong. Young sire has won with them early. #5 Slip Kid is the ML fav who has two runner up performances in his two races in AP sprints. Well bet everytime and is the one to beat. #8 Three Brothers is a FTS by Brother Derek who clips at 14% with debutants. Works have been decent and the trainer runs them best in MSW. #7 Smoke Daddy was a further 3.75 clear lengths behind #5 last time, but it was still a good run off a year layoff. Regardless, he's come back with a slow work and may regress second-up #3 Hasty Warrior does his best work on off-dirt surfaces and has previously run Beyers good enough to be competitive here. Positive jock switch back to Marquez and can sneak into the placings at a decent price. 2/3,5,7,8 R5: #5 Seanchai is only 2 for 21 but she has been running against tougher competition. The drop down in class will help, and the furlong cutback should suit too as she moved a bit too soon and hung in her last. Hill and Proctor have a great record together, making it another positive that they will link up here rather than the other Proctor runner... ...which is #2 V V Goodnight who is an improving filly, although her two wins came with numbers not good enough here. Bullet work on the 7th seems to put away the idea that she may regress off the double Beyer top, and Van Dyke has been on fire at Los Al. #1 Happy Henrietta is one that I though could steal it on the front end at a good price. Definitely wasn't herself last time with a gap in the works followed by a leisurely gallop, but a quick 5 furlongs last Saturday shows she's back at it. However, I had to downgrade her with the forecast of a wet track as she has shown she doesn't have a great affinity for it. #4 Stormin Elle figures to be one of the lower prices on the board but I won't be touching her. Hasn't been seen since the 26th and that is uncharacteristic of both her and Catalano. 5 is the pick and key as I don't trust anything else in the race. R6: #2 He's Dann Good has been extremely sluggish early on in his two appearances this season but has shown great late pace in the second half of the races. He broke his maiden in his third lifetime start, and he's my pick as he returns to that part of the form cycle. #1 Revolt (POE) is a beatable fav here as he has run his two worst races second off a layoff, which is no surprise as Block has a less than spectacular recent record second up off this type. R7: #1 Admiral Kitten is a G1 course and distance winner last year on Arlington Million day. He may not have appreciated the tighter turns and shorter stretch at Monmouth last time, but he might struggle again in what may be a dawdling pace. #2 War Dancer projects to be the favourite but I will try and beat him. #1 finished ahead of him on two occasions last season, but he had trouble in the stretch both times and therefore that's not what gives me reason to go against him in this spot. He comes out of his G3 win with three slow works---I know they've been around the dogs but they've still been 4/5, 3/3, and 2/3---where in contrast he has been flying in the AM before all four previous runs in 2014. That's not an angle that I like, especially on a low price. I hope that #3 Mister Marti Gras elects to run here. He is a very consistent runner who is proven at the distance. He is a SW who has run second thrice in graded stakes and this is far from the toughest field. He won third off the layoff last time and I think he can get a great trip and keep that going here. #4 Avanzare projects to be the pace here, and while it is difficult to take them every step of the way over a green 10 furlongs, he's never been out of the exacta in seven goes and with a light weight will be very game down the lane. I'm just not sure if he can last the full trip and can see him getting run down late. #5 Finnegans Wake has run two great races in G1s over the course and distance but he just hasn't been able to get over the hump and the jockey merry-go-round continues here. For the exotics. #6 Infinite Magic does have ability as he finished ahead of #1 twice in 2013 at equal weights and now has a +7 pound swing on him today. However, the track most likely won't be firm and that's where he's done his best running. Firm going: Key the 3...if SCR then no play Wet going: Add the 6 $0.50 P4: 3 and/or 6/All/4,8,10/7 ($15 or $30) R8: Nothing really caught my eye in this event and I can see something unexpected happening here. #8 Olympic Thunder returns to 12f for the first time since his best run in his NA career. He would have been my pick but he hasn't been seen in the AM this month and I don't like that. I've seen far worse 50-1 ML shots than #4 Bubba's Big Show. Obviously this is a massive, massive step up in class but Mizzen Mast x Royal Anthem screams distance on the turf, and his dam was SP at 10f on the lawn. Obviously pedigree only means so much as he was purchased for less than $2000 as a yearling and the race that his half brother won was a $3000 maiden claimer at Hastings, but you never know when you venture into the unknown and I'd rather waste a couple of bucks here than on a few pulls of a slot machine. R9: #1 Big Tom Prado is an Illinois bred who mowed them down with a powerful run last time but this is much tougher. May sneak into the placings. #2 Divine Oath has kept very good company in his four lifetime starts (Ring Weekend, Big Bazinga, Bobby's Kitten, Global View, Storming Inti) and although the Geroux-Pletcher combination isn't very common and may suggest this runner isn't very well heralded, it is understandable as Castellano-Pletcher teams up at Delaware for $750k and Velazquez-Pletcher is at Belmont for $200k. What concerns me, however, is his ability to run 9.5f (Forestry on the dam's side) and I think he's worth taking a shot against on the win line. #3 Highball showed his ability last time where he was much more calm prior to the start, but the shipping pattern from CD to MTH and now to AP is not ideal. #4 Schoolofhardrocks comes off a scintillating performance in his first turf route which was also his first time in blinkers. Cal shipper should have no issue with the distance, and if he can repeat that performance on a ground expected to be much softer than he's ever experienced before, he will be tough to beat "as the winning line looms." Was the low weight last out, and that might be the only knock. Bravo picks up the ride on #5 Giacallure but most of these could win at Canterbury. More exposed with less room for abrupt improvement. #6 Ghostly Wonder is a 4.5f baby winner who weakened off a slow pace last time out. Not for me. #7 Our Channel is a front runner from across the pond who took them all the way in a G3 on his 3yo reappearance. The runner up has been placed in a few decent events and while the sixth placed runner has been quite useful, the form line from that race hasn't really help up. I much prefer the former European, #8 Chief Barker. He was very impressive in his first three starts and the bloodlines of Azamour x Polish Precedent means he will absolutely relish the extra furlong. Rivelli hasn't run in many graded events recently, but he has won them in the past and has been red hot the entire year. #9 Hesinfront is the most experienced runner in the field, but he comes back in two weeks off a double Beyer top and I think he might bounce. #10 Afortable comes from a very good family and he was the beaten favourite in a G3 in his last appearance in late May. Team Block knows how to get them ready and he's worth another go here. 8/4,10/1,2,3,4,10 $0.50 P4: 8,10/7/5,11/All ($24) R10: #7 Dance Again was a very impressive winner last time out at Woodbine. The seam closed and she shifted to the fence as the outside runner ran right past her. She regained momentum and stormed home to win with something left. She can improve again third off the layoff and will be a good price. R11: #5 N'est Ce Pas hasn't been seen in a year, but on that occasion came off the same type of layoff and that race is good enough here. Williamson is solid with this type and you'll get a good price. Keep an eye on #11 Swift Closer at 20-1 ML. Block has two in this race, with this being the experienced one, albeit she ran only okay in her turf debut. Drop down should help and it's interesting to see Garcia stick around and pick up the mount here. Good luck! 
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