Pure luck?

[SilverRP]

Ok, I realize I'm most likely going to get slammed by this post, but it's more of a rant than anything. Anyway, I've come to the conclusion this game comes down to pure luck, and that there is truly no way of winning long term in this game. Someone please tell me I'm wrong. And if I am, tell me how you actually win at this game. And when I mean "at this game", I don't mean placing a bet once a month, I mean actually playing this game weekly.

I enjoy watching and playing, but damn it, I might as well just give to a charity. I've always told people if they want to win money gambling, then get away from slots and go to the horses. Well, I'm thinking I was telling them wrong all this time.

I'm really starting to believe there is no way to make it in this game. There are no methods, no strategies, no studying that can overcome the enormous factor of PURE LUCK. PLEASE TELL ME I'M WRONG!!!!

[Vegaskid]

There are methods and strategy in "this game". There are people who do win at a consistent rate. I do agree about luck being the biggest factor when trying to make big scores, but it is hardly any different than betting on sports or the stock market. I see it as really having "inside information". If you are getting the right info you can make it happen. You could still have that info and not be able to manage it correctly. I have seen "blue collar handicappers" tear thru the drf and uncover some great angles or plays that do pay off, but in the long run they stand no chance against somebody whom receives "inside info". I was taught this about horse racing and believe it after years of playing. Gene Huffington: You have to remember two things about betting the horses. The first is the connections, and the second is don't be shy about using the all-button. After all, only 32% of races are won by favorites, 68% by prices. The all-button is the only way to hit a monster. But connections are the key, and you have to be on the inside of things, or as Gene puts it, "if you're not in the inner circle, you 're not going to be in the winner's circle"

[Calzone Lord]

Go through the DRF Archives and read about the sport when it was played at incredibly low takeout rates.

When you read about the people, successful in life and business, who lost incredible fortunes in the betting ring and ended up broke. It was almost always written that those people paid the best for and sought out "inside information"

The most successful guys like Pittsburgh Phil were true handicappers. He worked for $5 a week in a button factory in Pittsburgh and became a multi millionaire through betting when almost no one had that kind of money, and he was a tabloid sensation.

Pittsburgh Phil's don't exist anymore because of the dramatically higher takeout.

The super-rich successful businessman Mike Repole types don't blow fortunes betting horses anymore either. Because of the high takeout. That animal still exists when it comes to owning horses, but not so much in terms of betting on races.

Any competent handicapper who can read a toteboard can see when inside-info money is being bet. And the inside-info usually comes on the opinion of trainers, exercise riders, jockeys, and clockers

Spend some time talking to trainers, exercise riders, jockeys, and clockers...

If I could book the bets made by those four groups, even at a 5% takeout, it would be the happiest day of my life.

Sure, they might have an edge in rare situations (a first-time starter or layoff horse) ... but a lot of them are TERRIBLE at evaluating the other guys horse.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by SilverRP

There are no methods, no strategies, no studying that can overcome the enormous factor of PURE LUCK. PLEASE TELL ME I'M WRONG!!!!

95% of the actual luck involved in a horse race manifests itself in the first 1/8th of a mile.

#1: The break - races can be lost at the break.

#2: Tactics and position - Races are always won and lost in the first furlong by tactics and position.

There is a way to remove the "luck" factor entirely from horse racing. It's called in-race betting, and they already do it in Europe.

Why would anyone want to bet on a horse race before seeing the break and observing the tactics? It's an exchange format, but the technology is already there...but racing in America is naturally way behind the curve.

Luck won't matter when in-race betting eventually comes to America.

However, anytime you bet a horse race before the gate opens, you're at the mercy of luck and high takeout. Still, luck isn't as big a deal as you're making it out to be.

[TheSpyder]

Luck you.

[Vegaskid]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Any competent handicapper who can read a toteboard can see when inside-info money is being bet. And the inside-info usually comes on the opinion of trainers, exercise riders, jockeys, and clockers

Sure, they might have an edge in rare situations (a first-time starter or layoff horse) ... but a lot of them are TERRIBLE at evaluating the other guys horse.

The "rare situations" are what I am referring to. Like the Peter Miller 1ster he made a huge score on (Laugh at Life). Granted, he did hide it from everyone (for his own personal gain) and also played it perfectly by manipulating the workouts, but he didn't know how good the other guys horses were. He just knew he was in a soft spot, and that the par for that race would be easy to top.

[blackthroatedwind]

Inside information and the all-button?

I beg to differ.

[Calzone Lord]

Yep. Advice doesn't come much worse than the all-button.

Don't get me wrong, there's been a time or ten in which I wish I would have used it, but over the long haul, it's bad on your ROI.

You're better off spending extra money pressing than spreading.

[declansharbor]

Doug, how soon do you see exchange wagering catching on in North America? Horse racing that is.

[dagolfer33]

Since I have no chance of winning, I should just quit now and save the money. Wait, one more bet......TAM 6 .50 pk 5, 2,5,7/1,6/2,4/1,7/2,8 $24.

[my miss storm cat]

I'm waiting for Alabama Stakes to chime in.

[Danzig]

i have seen a saying, 'the harder you work, the luckier you get'. you have to put in the time and study to make good picks-time some just don't have, or aren't willing to give. sure, sometimes it boils down to luck. we've all seen a horse miss the break, dump their jock, whatever. another bit of advice-when at the track, don't bet every race because you feel like you have to. you can't beat the favorite every time, so pick your battles.

[dagolfer33]

Originally Posted by dagolfer33

Since I have no chance of winning, I should just quit now and save the money. Wait, one more bet......TAM 6 .50 pk 5, 2,5,7/1,6/2,4/1,7/2,8 $24.

4/5 !

Obviously, obviously, if I would have had the inside information I needed, I could have hit this thing.

[DEES3]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Go through the DRF Archives and read about the sport when it was played at incredibly low takeout rates.

When you read about the people, successful in life and business, who lost incredible fortunes in the betting ring and ended up broke. It was almost always written that those people paid the best for and sought out "inside information"

The most successful guys like Pittsburgh Phil were true handicappers. He worked for $5 a week in a button factory in Pittsburgh and became a multi millionaire through betting when almost no one had that kind of money, and he was a tabloid sensation.

Pittsburgh Phil's don't exist anymore because of the dramatically higher takeout.

The super-rich successful businessman Mike Repole types don't blow fortunes betting horses anymore either. Because of the high takeout. That animal still exists when it comes to owning horses, but not so much in terms of betting on races.

Any competent handicapper who can read a toteboard can see when inside-info money is being bet. And the inside-info usually comes on the opinion of trainers, exercise riders, jockeys, and clockers

Spend some time talking to trainers, exercise riders, jockeys, and clockers...

If I could book the bets made by those four groups, even at a 5% takeout, it would be the happiest day of my life.

Sure, they might have an edge in rare situations (a first-time starter or layoff horse) ... but a lot of them are TERRIBLE at evaluating the other guys horse.

What percentage of bettors beat the take-out long term? I assume these numbers aren't made public by twinspires or other outlets.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by dagolfer33

4/5 !

Obviously, obviously, if I would have had the inside information I needed, I could have hit this thing.

I like to use the quick pick function

[Vegaskid]

Originally Posted by dagolfer33

4/5 !

Obviously, obviously, if I would have had the inside information I needed, I could have hit this thing.

Or the all button.

I think every chalk player in the country hit that today.

[dagolfer33]

Originally Posted by geeker2

I like to use the quick pick function

Tru dat!! I would still end up with 4/5 with my luck.

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

95% of the actual luck involved in a horse race manifests itself in the first 1/8th of a mile.

#1: The break - races can be lost at the break.

#2: Tactics and position - Races are always won and lost in the first furlong by tactics and position.

There is a way to remove the "luck" factor entirely from horse racing. It's called in-race betting, and they already do it in Europe.

Why would anyone want to bet on a horse race before seeing the break and observing the tactics? It's an exchange format, but the technology is already there...but racing in America is naturally way behind the curve.

Luck won't matter when in-race betting eventually comes to America.

However, anytime you bet a horse race before the gate opens, you're at the mercy of luck and high takeout. Still, luck isn't as big a deal as you're making it out to be.

They do have in-race betting going already in the U.S. It's called past posting! You see it at the socal tracks daily. The tracks don't care because it just means more handle for them