Best Bet Back

MaTH716 · #1 11-05-2012, 03:01 PM

Unfortunately for me, I was unable to watch and bet this years Breeders Cup (due to the hurricane). I just started to watch the replays today as a fan and maybe in the hopes of catching one of these horses next out. My question is, assuming that these horses all comeback to race in relative near future, which horse is the best bet back? Some will be due to a horrendous trip, or some had to deal with what seemed like a track bias towards front runners. Maybe you have some other thoughts or reasoning on a horse that just didn't fire. Just looking for some ideas. Thanks.

I thought Animal Kingdom was very impressive in defeat. Unfortunately he's a bad example because he will always take tons of money if and when he races again. But I'm sure someone has an angle on a horse that could be a juicy price next out.

golfer · #2 11-05-2012, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Unfortunately for me, I was unable to watch and bet this years Breeders Cup (due to the hurricane). I just started to watch the replays today as a fan and maybe in the hopes of catching one of these horses next out. My question is, assuming that these horses all comeback to race in relative near future, which horse is the best bet back? Some will be due to a horrendous trip, or some had to deal with what seemed like a track bias towards front runners. Maybe you have some other thoughts or reasoning on a horse that just didn't fire. Just looking for some ideas. Thanks.

I thought Animal Kingdom was very impressive in defeat. Unfortunately he's a bad example because he will always take tons of money if and when he races again. But I'm sure someone has an angle on a horse that could be a juicy price next out.

Breeders Cup horses historically take MAJOR $$ next time they run, deserving or not. So getting a price on anyone will be difficult.
I will offer Brown Almighty, who got another brutal trip in the Juvy Turf.

Calzone Lord · #3 11-05-2012, 03:24 PM

Before you watch any of the races looking for bet backs -- you'll have to take a position on the race track and you'll have to correctly gauge the pace.

When I get a chance to watch the trips -- I'm going 100% under the assumption the track was fair. If there was a speed bias, it was a marginal one, and I know a lot of people think there was one and that will be reflected next time these horses run back.

The Marathon was one of only two BC race where the jockeys actually did bother to ride like the track was speed biased. The ride on Jaycito was stupid... and Smith sure rode Atigun like he believed it was a speed bias. The winner came from another zip code behind. He was a long, long, long, long way dead last.

As for the rest of the BC dirt races -- here they are rated from fastest to slowest based on how the paces were in relation to the final time:

Juvenile (+26, +17)
Distaff (+4, +4)
Filly and Mare Sprint (+2, E)
Sprint (+3, -1)
Classic (-1, E)
Juvenile Fillies (-1, -2)
Dirt Mile (-12, -8)
Juvenile Sprint (-16, -18)

The Juvenile pace was the other smoking hot pace. Everyone in the race was falling down late.

Of all horses, Royal Delta was the one who set the pace in the race that came back 3rd fastest paced in relation to final time.

Conrad · #4 11-05-2012, 08:53 PM

John Scott is one to watch out of the Dirt Mile in my opinion.
Had it doubly tough behind a pretty slow pace and he was wide & trying to rally.
Ran a pretty good race, but he's a Cal bred, so all value will be lost if he runs his next vs state breds.

#5 11-05-2012, 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Conrad

John Scott is one to watch out of the Dirt Mile in my opinion.
Had it doubly tough behind a pretty slow pace and he was wide & trying to rally.
Ran a pretty good race, but he's a Cal bred, so all value will be lost if he runs his next vs state breds.

He is better on synthetic

-BT- · #6 11-06-2012, 07:56 AM

Capo Bastone ran a good race, w/out lasix and what i've heard is he bled pretty bad.

aside from what i believe is the Horse of the Year in Wise Dan, AK's run down the lane once he was clear was very impressive.

another obvious i would say was/is My Miss Aurelia

-bt-

blackthroatedwind · #7 11-06-2012, 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-

Capo Bastone ran a good race, w/out lasix and what i've heard is he bled pretty bad.

aside from what i believe is the Horse of the Year in Wise Dan, AK's run down the lane once he was clear was very impressive.

another obvious i would say was/is My Miss Aurelia

-bt-

My Miss Aurelia had a perfect suck up trip on a gold rail. She's about as good a bet against out of the BC as any horse that appears to have run well.

NTamm1215 · #8 11-06-2012, 08:33 AM

Capo Bastone needs to be cut back. Knowing Sadler, he'll beat the horse to a bloody pulp going long, finally cut him back for a race like the Laz Barrera, he'll win at 4-1 then run in the Affirmed, Swaps, Super Derby, Goodwood and BC Dirt Mile, all while going 1-10 on the year.

-BT- · #9 11-06-2012, 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

My Miss Aurelia had a perfect suck up trip on a gold rail. She's about as good a bet against out of the BC as any horse that appears to have run well.

really?
i thought Delta was just that much the best, as she's pretty much shown throughout the year. With those fractions and the move made by My Miss down the lane i thought she had a serious chance to go by but Delta was just much the best. A blemish to Royal Delta isn't bad for your first loss

-bt-

blackthroatedwind · #10 11-06-2012, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-

really?
i thought Delta was just that much the best, as she's pretty much shown throughout the year. With those fractions and the move made by My Miss down the lane i thought she had a serious chance to go by but Delta was just much the best. A blemish to Royal Delta isn't bad for your first loss

-bt-

What does Royal Delta's clear dominance have to do with everything going perfectly for My Miss Aurelia?

-BT- · #11 11-06-2012, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What does Royal Delta's clear dominance have to do with everything going perfectly for My Miss Aurelia?

that a lot of horses, male or female, would have been batteling for 2nd place money on that day vs. royal delta. Is your point that she had a perfect trip therefore had no excuse not to win? or that she had a perfect trip to get 2nd place?

-bt-

blackthroatedwind · #12 11-06-2012, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-

that a lot of horses, male or female, would have been batteling for 2nd place money on that day vs. royal delta. Is your point that she had a perfect trip therefore had no excuse not to win? or that she had a perfect trip to get 2nd place?

-bt-

She had a perfect trip regardless of where she finished, which means her performance looks better than it actually was, therefore she is likely to be overrated going forward. It's the same for $10K claimers as Grade 1 Stakes.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #13 11-06-2012, 09:56 AM

summer of fun..weavers horse..only needs a bit of class relief..

Conrad · #14 11-06-2012, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

summer of fun..weavers horse..only needs a bit of class relief..

I was pleased to see my favorite trainer take down some money

Weaver Believer

JimmyEllis · #15 11-06-2012, 12:14 PM

Capo Bastone
Coil
Justin Phillips
Marketing Mix

netbet · #16 11-06-2012, 02:42 PM

I'm thinking that depending on what race she returns in, Questing may be very playable given that she was injured at the very start and didn't exert much energy into the race. She may also be a bit overlooked given the DNF result.

MaTH716 · #17 11-06-2012, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by netbet

I'm thinking that depending on what race she returns in, Questing may be very playable given that she was injured at the very start and didn't exert much energy into the race. She may also be a bit overlooked given the DNF result.

I think horses that DNF only get overlooked in claiming races and I doubt that's happening.