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#1
08-30-2012, 11:03 PM
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Del Mar 5 of 6 pays $145,187.40
A $129.40 winner absolutely dominated the last race at Del Mar and won by 4+ lengths for D Vergera and Ruben Gomez.
If you got just 5 out of 6 in the P6 you got more than 145K. Back-to-back carryover after a $96 winner and an $84 winner won in yesterdays P6 sequence at Del Mar. 5 out of 6 only paid 10K yesterday despite the two massive longshots winning. 
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#2
08-31-2012, 12:03 AM
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Big Man In Town was tough to come up with even in the P4 that paid:
$0.50 Pick 4 (2/8/3/5) Paid $58,466.75 (4OF4) Which is for me the highest I've seen a $0.50 P4 pay. Would have had to gone ALL in that last leg which was a 10 horse field to come up with him. Beaten 100.5 lengths in his 7 starts, or 14.35 lengths a race on average. Last 5 races at the very same level of MC20k Trainer is now 1/61 on the year, and Daniel Vergara got his first win of the meet. Rough.
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#3
08-31-2012, 12:12 AM
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Yep. Here's the form of the horse who dominated the last race of the day at Del Mar and won it by 4+ lengths and paid $130 to win.  Looks like a complete bum on paper -- he was 7th and 10th at this same class level in his last two starts. His jockey is 0-for-28 at the meet and his trainer is 0-for-60 on the year. He had one angle going for him -- and it wasn't as clearly appearant on paper as it was on CJ's figures. He had been repeatedly used up in sprint races battling for the lead and stopping to a walk. Never in his life had he made an early lead before.  In yesterdays race -- he had the fields best early pace figure -- and no one was going to pressure him because any smart jockey just simply lets horses with forms like that go early on. Finding himself on the lead for the first time ever, and with no early pressure to boot, he simply buried them. Obviously, I wouldn't bet a horse like that ever. However, as someone who is a long-time veteran of betting exchanges ... I know that you NEVER ever mess around with betting against horses like that. It's tempting for people to see how hopeless they look on paper and say 'why don't I make an easy $30 here and just give the 85/1 odds against that lousy 60/1 shot' When a horse has never made a lead before -- is almost a lock to make a loose lead, I'm not interested in laying any price against them. That's a lesson I learned a long, long time ago in the days when the EhorseX exchange had a good deal of liquidity.
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#4
08-31-2012, 12:40 AM
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Question.
Great anatomy of a long shot.
The only other positive was Benchmark. He is a very good DMR polytrack sire. His offspring have won 29 of 201 starts. "He had one angle going for him -- and it wasn't as clearly appearant on paper as it was on CJ's figures. " CJ ?
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#5
08-31-2012, 12:51 AM
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I don't know how to read those figures though. I use Brisnet PPs and thought the 6 would make the lead and hopefully run the race the winner ran. Victor Espinoza (rider of the 6) also rode the 1 in the race before that, and I thought he should have made the lead there too but didn't.
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#6
08-31-2012, 03:06 AM
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CJ posts here as CMorioles. His website is www.Pacefigures.com
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#7
08-31-2012, 03:11 AM
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Victor Espinoza's horse (#6) had the second fastest early pace fig in the race. He's too smart of a jockey to press that longshot eventual winner. The thing most good riders will do -- and he did -- was to just ignore the 60/1 shot who is a little quicker and let it have an easy lead all to itself. The assumption being that the horse will stop no matter how easy a lead it gets.
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#8
08-31-2012, 07:10 AM
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Actually, his last start, his only one at DMR, was not nearly as atrocious as his previous few starts.
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#9
08-31-2012, 07:43 AM
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I didn't look at this race at all, but I once did a longshot study over the course of two months one summer. By far the biggest "angle" when it came to big prices winning was third-off the layoff with an improved figure in the second race back, just like this horse.
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#10
08-31-2012, 07:51 AM
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__________________
We've Gone Delirious
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#11
08-31-2012, 08:06 AM
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Penn National's 2nd race yesterday was another example of a horse improving dramatically when he finally was allowed to set an uncontested early lead.
 Much like the horse at Del Mar who destroyed the field and paid $129.40 -- this one got loose by 1.5 lengths and remained unpressed. He finished 2nd beaten just a half length at 99/1 odds. http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120830&RN=2 I have no fear of any horse just because they're getting on a surface they do a little better on. I have no fear of any horse just because they're 3rd off the layoff and might be improving a little bit. I do have fear of horses who time and time again fail to make a loose early lead -- and who now appear likely to get that free ride on the lead for the first time in a blue moon if not ever.
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#12
08-31-2012, 08:34 AM
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what about that he improved 20 lengths from his previous start off the lay. closer at other calls too.
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#13
08-31-2012, 09:32 AM
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#14
08-31-2012, 10:52 AM
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For what it's worth, Vergara won the 4th race, the first leg of yesterday's pick six, which was his first win at the meet. This was his 2nd of the day, and thus, the meet.
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#15
08-31-2012, 11:42 AM
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bad horses win bad races....and when you get a horse who figures to get loose in a bad race, 60/1 is not that bad to "throw" in for a multi sequence.
the del mar track has definitely played much closer to HP than it has to Keeneland this meet, been pretty fair for polycrap.
__________________
"To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize"...Voltaire
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#16
08-31-2012, 07:24 PM
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Headed on the path for a 3rd straight carryover at Del Mar...
A $60 horse won the first leg of the pick 6. The second leg of the Pick 6 was won in dominant fashion by a 12/1 shot with an 18/1 shot second place finisher.
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#20
08-31-2012, 09:36 PM
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The cards two big standout chalks Bella Viaggia (6/5) and Fed Biz (even money) both won.
The Pick 6 paid $308,928.40 thanks to a 3-race stretch that included a 2/1 shot winner, 6/5 shot winner, and even money favorite winner.
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