8/30: Saratoga (With Anticipation; $73k C/O)

[Kasept]

Got closing week off to a sublime start Wednesday marching through much of the good Wednesday slate successfully. The upset of Thane in the opener worked out fine given Norumbega's $17.40 win tote and the facile $87 P3 it commenced. The DQ of Brazilian Court (6-1) in the 2nd was justified and though it took a few dollars out of the equations with Scofield (9-2) receiving the judgement, it wasn't a hardship or miscarriage of justice. Hitting the 'all' for the 4th race in the P4 paid off when longest price Hearts of Red ($25.60) was victorious for Ralph Nicks and the $1 increment proved out after Fredricksburg's 'much the best' 5th race effort capped the $388 early quad.

Swift Warrior continued a nice string of P3 hits as well in the 6th, but the gravy train derailed in the 7th when Sheppard first Hedonemewrongsong prevailed in a MSW that produced outlandish exotics including a $227 exacta, $4,843 triple and $48,480 super. In the 10th, 'one more chance' Harty miss She Be Bunny (12-1) ran gamely on the front end before settling for 2nd under clever Andy Serling tab Corinzia (11-1). I bet She Be Bunny to win ($20) and backwheeled her with the field ($20) and the $551 exacta closed out the highly productive afternoon and demonstrated again that the margin for success in this meet has repeatedly been razor thin. Hope everyone did well. A $73k carryover on a tough sequence today at the Spa and if inclined, a $93k C/O at old Del Mar..


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/C, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Memorial Maniac 10-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Rainiero 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Brave Prospect 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 You the Man 15-1 WON ($31.00)


2nd: Mrs. Walter Jeffords, F&M-4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Cat Feathers 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Well Fashioned 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Cordillera 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Maya Charli 5-1 6th


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

One of the more anticipated debuts in recent memory comes here from uber-buzz baby Archwarrior, the $375k OBS training sale buy from Pletcher and Alto Racing that has had binoculor set talking all summer. Could not draw in to several fields throughout the meet and doesn't appear to be meeting too many other heralded youngsters in here. By Arch out of the productive Seeking the Gold mare Winner's Edge, Archwarrior doesn't necessarily look on pedigree as an automatic slam dunk at 6f. Half brother Capac -- namesake of the tragically murdered horseman -- was a very nice Deputy Minister that was best going two turns, but still expect Pletcher has this one ready to roll today..

Most Likely: #3 Archwarrior 4-5 WON ($2.50)
Next Best: #6 Transparent 4-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Malachite 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1e Klaravich entry 7-2 3rd/6th


4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Royal Rhiannon 5-1 WON ($5.90)
Next Best: #5 Glorious View 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Free as a Bird 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Run for Riches 15-1 7th


5th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Sounds of the City 5-2 WON ($5.90)
Next Best: #5 Lady Rizzi 7-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Giant Sleep 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Margaret Lillian 8-1 7th


6th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$73k P6 C/O starts here..

Violette (#4 High Inflation) 0/10 since '07 dropping MSW to MCL for 2nd career start. Proviso here may be Klaravich/Lawrence gunning for owner's title; #9 (AE) Chifa interesting should she draw in DOES GET IN..

Best Value: #6 Aqualinda 5-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Make Me a Prophet 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Chifa 9-2 WON ($6.90)
Super Add: #1 Iratinelexburance 6-1 3rd


<$50 P4 Play:

3: 3
4: 1-2-3-5-6
5: 1-3-5
6: 1-4-5-6-7-9

1x5x4x6 = 90 x .50 = $45

$0.50 Pick 4 (3-2-3/4/6/11/12-9) $36.00


7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Very tough set. 9 of the 12 look like they could win this..

Best Value: #12 Change of Command 5-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Quantity 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Lea 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #10 News Pending 6-1 9th


8th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Live Life Fast 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Discreet Marq 6-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #1 Ascended Fever 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Accomplish First 4-1 4th


9th: Equalize, 3yo, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Csaba 3-1 9th/Entrymate WON ($9.10)
Next Best: #8 Finale 5-2 10th
Best Value: #6 Film Shot 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Tiz Sardonic Joe 8-1 4th


10th: 8th With Anticipation (G2), 2yo, 8.5f-T (DD)

Looks like there is no shortage of pace in here with several stretching out and that makes it hard to deny viability of fave Charming Kitten who will be coming with a run..

Most Likely: #6 Charming Kitten 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 He's So Fine 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Joha 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Hightail 15-1 6th


11th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT

Most Likely: #2 What'smineismine 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Crypto Kitten 5-2 7th
Best Value: #11 Carpi Clements 8-1 10th
Exotics Use: #7 Shahalie Slammer 15-1 9th


<$150 P6 Play:

6: 4-5-6
7: 2-6-12
8: 3-7
9: 1-8
10: 6
11: 2-8

3x3x2x2x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-3-6-7
9: 1-8
10: 2-6-7
11: 2-7-8-11

4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[ADJMK]

Anyone betting the house on Archwarrior should take note that Welsch noted that he was "not quite so impressive in each of his last two half-mile breezes". His caution on T T Lass was spot on yesterday.

[atolunch]

Nice job on the P4.

I hope you had the Tri in the first!

Congrats and thanks as always!!