|
|
 |
|
#1
07-27-2012, 09:59 PM
|
||||
|
||||
7/28: Saratoga (Diana; Jim Dandy)
SARATOGA RACE COURSE
POST-SCRATCHES 1st: OC/N1X, 3+. 9f (P3, DD) As discussed with Nick Tammaro Friday on ATR, even though his win two back may be slop-aided, I find This Hard Land (15-1) an irresistable alternative to the three logicals.. Best Value: #8 This Hard Land 15-1 6th Next Best: #2 Big Screen 5-1 4th Exotics Use: #1 Westshore 3-1 7th Super Add: #9 Raison d'Etat 5-2 WON ($5.10) 2nd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Secret Soul is a full to a good grasser in Perfect Cherokee; Town Hall's sire Indygo Shiner has 3 of his first 14 runners winning grass races with alacrity and the Mott firster's dam Susan's Angel was a multiple SW around 2 turns for Lukas; Newfound Zapper and Bernie the Jet should take to the their stretch outs in respective 2nd starts.. Most Likely: #7 Secret Soul 6-1 8th Best Value: #6 Town Hall 15-1 7th Next Best: #2 Newfound Zapper 5-1 3rd Exotics Use: #5 Bernie the Jet 4-1 [color="Red"]6th[/COdLOR] 3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD) ML fave Gulfport (7-5) will reportedly SCR. If not, becomes Most Likely.. Most Likely: #2 Pass the Pico 4-1 2nd Next Best: #7 Simon Eyes 6-1 8th Exotics Use: #3 New Line 15-1 5th Super Add: #6 North Slope 6-1 7th 4th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD) Very contentious.. Most Likely: #1 Crown the Chief 9-2 2nd Best Value: #4 Runwayeightyfour 6-1 9th Next Best: #9 Coffee Boy 7-2 5th Exotics Use: #12 Star Dance M D 12-1 10th 5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD) With an $85k purse, this could have a name on it as an overnight stake. Associate was 3rd in the Malibu to end '11. His best wins clear.. Most Likely: #5 Associate 3-1 3rd Next Best: #6 Gallant Fields 6-1 8th Best Value: #3 Prince Silver 15-1 2nd Exotics Use: #2 Flat Bold 7-2 10th $100 P4 Play: 2: 2-3-5-6-7 3: 2-3-6-7 4: 1-4-9 5: 3-5-6 5x4x3x3 = 180 x .50 = $90 6th:NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD) 14 horse field of better than average state-bred $20k claimers, so be thankful this isn't in a P4. If playing tris/supers, add #14 Cameron Canyon (10-1).. Most Likely: #3 Late SCR Best Value: #9 New York New York 15-1 12th Next Best: #5 Rockheaded 3-1 6th Exotics Use: #4 Why Argue 10-1 7th 7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD) Pianist may in the midst of fulfilling the big promise advertised around this time last year.. Most Likely: #8 Pianist 7-5 3rd Next Best: #2 Kitty Wine 5-1 2nd Best Value: #1 Town Flirt 15-1 8th Exotics Use: #5 Dreaming of Cara 12-1 6th 8th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Favored Thescreenisred is the horse to beat but has has disappointed at short odds twice already. Positive rider switch on Desert Bliss who ran her best last yet last time. Note that AE's #13 & #15 are worthwhile should either or both somehow get in.. Best Value: #7 Desert Bliss 6-1 5th Next Best: #10 Thescreenisred 5-2 2nd Exotics Use: #2 Princess Jenny 4-1 3rd Super Add: #1 Pegasus Diamond 15-1 6th 9th: 74th Diana (G1), F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD) Question here is whether Tapitsfly has matured to a point where the mile and an eigth is manageable. Rosario will have little pressure to deal with and will be unable to lose ground from the #1. Remember too that softish/yielding turf generally aisa front runners as well. On that topic, Hungry Island buzzsawed the Lake Placid here a year ago on soggy loam and is the best price of the most viable players.. Best Value: #6 Hungry Island 5-1 5th Next Best: #1 Tapitsfly 7-2 4th Exotics Use: #5 Winter Memories 9-5 WON ($5.50) Super Add: #3 Zagora 5-2 3rd 10th: 49th Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD) Since Bernardini's big Jim Dandy (114 Beyer), Street Sense, Macho Again, Kensei, A Little Warm and Stay Thirsty have won this race with an average fig of 104. Liason, Neck 'n Neck and Alpha are the horses that are projectable to run a mid-100's today. Your winner should come from that trio. The best upset candidates are Atigun (8-1) and 3x GSW Prospective (12-1).. Most Likely: #7 Liason 7-2 3rd Next Best: #1 Alpha 5-2 WON ($5.60) Exotics Use: #4 Neck 'n Neck 3-1 2nd Best Value: #3 Atigun 8-1 6th 11th: CLM/N2X, 3yo, 5.5f-T OFF THE TURF: 15/WON ($5.80)-6/4th-1/3rd-11/2nd <$75 P4 Play: 8: 7-10 9: 1-3-4-5-6 10: 1-4-7 11: Came off the turf; No play.. Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 07-29-2012 at 08:42 AM. 
|
|
#2
07-28-2012, 11:03 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
|
Linear Mode
