Big Browns crop

Calzone Lord · #1 06-02-2012, 08:26 PM

I've studied a lot of great horses and over a hundred years worth of charts and past performances -- one of the most striking things from my efforts at making figures for past top horses is that the crazy fast figures typically come at age 4.

Generally, that's the true prime and it's the age when the vast majority of freakish performances occur. Often, the most sensationally fast horses in history that I've found just would seem to have a switch flip at age 4.

3-year-olds this time really shouldn't be competitive with the older horses.

Secretariat lost two out of his three dirt races against older horses. A pair of razor sharp 4-year-olds (Onion and Prove Out) beat him.

Affirmed was beaten as a 1-to-2 favorite by razor sharp 4-year-old Seattle Slew in his debut against older horses.

Seattle Slew didn't race against older horses at age 3 (a good thing because a good field of older alw horses could have beaten him) -- but he lost his first stakes test against older horses when a fellow razor sharp 4-year-old named Dr. Patches beat him. Slew made an almost Discovery and Coaltown like progression from age 3 to 4 and became a wickedly fast 4yo.

The star of the triple crown series is rarely competitively with the best performers of the crop the following year. Using recent examples ...

* Mine That Bird won the Derby and was competitive and on-the-board in both the Preakness and Belmont. Quality Road and Blame were much better at 4.

* Afleet Alex almost won a Triple Crown -- fellow 2002 foal Invasor was much better at age 4.

* Smarty Jones almost won a Triple Crown -- fellow 2001 crop members Lava Man and Commentator both ran figures of 120 or better at age 4.

* Funny Cide was alive for a triple crown...he couldn't warm up fellow 2000 crop member Ghostzapper at age 4.

* War Emblem was alive for a triple crown... fellow crop members Mineshaft, Candy Ride, and Medaglia D'Oro would have obliterated him at age 4.

Big Brown's crop really sucked. I think Rail Trip, Gio Ponti, Richard's Kid, and Macho Again might have been the best 4-year-old from it. Am I forgetting anyone?

dalakhani · #2 06-02-2012, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I've studied a lot of great horses and over a hundred years worth of charts and past performances -- one of the most striking things from my efforts at making figures for past top horses is that the crazy fast figures typically come at age 4.

Generally, that's the true prime and it's the age when the vast majority of freakish performances occur. Often, the most sensationally fast horses in history that I've found just would seem to have a switch flip at age 4.

3-year-olds this time really shouldn't be competitive with the older horses.

Secretariat lost two out of his three dirt races against older horses. A pair of razor sharp 4-year-olds (Onion and Prove Out) beat him.

Affirmed was beaten as a 1-to-2 favorite by razor sharp 4-year-old Seattle Slew in his debut against older horses.

Seattle Slew didn't race against older horses at age 3 (a good thing because a good field of older alw horses could have beaten him) -- but he lost his first stakes test against older horses when a fellow razor sharp 4-year-old named Dr. Patches beat him. Slew made an almost Discovery and Coaltown like progression from age 3 to 4 and became a wickedly fast 4yo.

The star of the triple crown series is rarely competitively with the best performers of the crop the following year. Using recent examples ...

* Mine That Bird won the Derby and was competitive and on-the-board in both the Preakness and Belmont. Quality Road and Blame were much better at 4.

* Afleet Alex almost won a Triple Crown -- fellow 2002 foal Invasor was much better at age 4.

* Smarty Jones almost won a Triple Crown -- fellow 2001 crop members Lava Man and Commentator both ran figures of 120 or better at age 4.

* Funny Cide was alive for a triple crown...he couldn't warm up fellow 2000 crop member Ghostzapper at age 4.

* War Emblem was alive for a triple crown... fellow crop members Mineshaft, Candy Ride, and Medaglia D'Oro would have obliterated him at age 4.

Big Brown's crop really sucked. I think Rail Trip, Gio Ponti, Richard's Kid, and Macho Again might have been the best 4-year-old from it. Am I forgetting anyone?

For dirt males, it was the worst of the last decade. Can we count goldikova?

Calzone Lord · #3 06-02-2012, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

For dirt males, it was the worst of the last decade. Can we count goldikova?

She was born that year, but like you said, never ran on dirt. Gio Ponti never ran on dirt for that matter, either.

After Big Brown, it was a sad group.

#4 06-02-2012, 09:34 PM

Goldikova was born in 2005

Calzone Lord · #5 06-02-2012, 11:37 PM

She was born in Europe and she's turf. She doesn't count.

DaTruth · #6 06-03-2012, 12:21 AM

Tizway was in Big Brown's class, but he didn't get really good until his 6yo season.

Linny · #7 06-03-2012, 08:08 PM

My only exception to the original post is that Invasor was born in the southern hemisphere and thus wouldn't have had a chance to be comparable as he was 6mos older than Alex.

Everyone raves about "this or that" crop of 3yo's being better or worse than others but unless they run full careers you don't get perspective. Imagine how good it would have been to have Street Sense and Hard Spun continuing on against Curlin after their good 3yo campaigns.

Merlinsky · #8 06-03-2012, 09:59 PM

Thoughts on Rachel Alexandra vs. her crop (male/female) at 4?

Calzone Lord · #9 06-03-2012, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Thoughts on Rachel Alexandra vs. her crop (male/female) at 4?

Rachel Alexandra at age 3:

http://www1.drf.com/eclipse/2009/fin...eoftheYear.pdf

Blame at age 4:

http://www1.drf.com/eclipse/2010/pps/blame.pdf

Quality Road at age 4:

http://www1.drf.com/eclipse/2010/pps/quality-road.pdf

blackthroatedwind · #10 06-03-2012, 10:18 PM

Drugs, no argument, but as a 2YO wasn't War Pass pretty good?

Calzone Lord · #11 06-03-2012, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Drugs, no argument, but as a 2YO wasn't War Pass pretty good?

Yes -- without a doubt. His race on the wet track in the Breeders Cup was one of the best performances by a 2yo in a long time.

I was going more towards 3yo triple crown series form VS 4yo form by crop.

blackthroatedwind · #12 06-03-2012, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yes -- without a doubt. His race on the wet track in the Breeders Cup was one of the best performances by a 2yo in a long time.

I was going more towards 3yo triple crown form VS 4yo form.

Thanks. I kind of figured that.

It was an awful group. Is it possible any horse has ever gone for the Triple Crown off a worse Preakness than Big Brown? Has it ever even been close?

Calzone Lord · #13 06-03-2012, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It was an awful group. Is it possible any horse has ever gone for the Triple Crown off a worse Preakness than Big Brown? Has it ever even been close?

I would have to go through some notebooks and look.

Canonero II would be one strong candidate.

Calzone Lord · #14 06-03-2012, 10:55 PM

Canonero II ran only 5 Beyer points faster in the Derby than the Twin Spires purse went one race earlier.

I didn't do a number for his Preakness though.

This is the 2nd place finisher to Seattle Slew in the Preakness:

This fine horse was also 7-to-1 against Slew in the Belmont Stakes.

blackthroatedwind · #15 06-03-2012, 11:01 PM

Slew beat some real mediocrities. No doubt. That's why a lot of fig guys were against him until the Fall of 1978.

He and Dr. Patches both ran at Saratoga before the Patterson, and their figs were extremely similar....which is why I bet Dr. Patches.

Calzone Lord · #16 06-03-2012, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Slew beat some real mediocrities. No doubt. That's why a lot of fig guys were against him until the Fall of 1978.

He and Dr. Patches both ran at Saratoga before the Patterson, and their figs were extremely similar....which is why I bet Dr. Patches.

The weak competition he faced at age 3 really masked his development.

A horse like Discovery was beaten five or six times at age 3 by Cavalcade -- and was 2nd in a lot of major races to him like the Kentucky Derby on almost every occasion. Discovery really wasn't even that good until late in his 3yo season.

He became just about the most invincible horse you could imagine for about five straight months at age 4 and was a great horse as a 4yo and 5yo.

Seattle Slew had no Cavalcade in his crop.

Indian Charlie · #17 06-03-2012, 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Thanks. I kind of figured that.

It was an awful group. Is it possible any horse has ever gone for the Triple Crown off a worse Preakness than Big Brown? Has it ever even been close?

I thought I was the only person thinking that. Hell, I thought he looked like he was about to break down in the Preakness stretch run.

FATPIANO · #18 06-04-2012, 12:11 PM

The Bid at 3, beat olders 2 out of 3, The Marlboro and The Meadowlands Cup(NTR), he came in second to Affirmed in The JCGC............

blackthroatedwind · #19 06-04-2012, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

The Bid at 3, beat olders 2 out of 3, The Marlboro and The Meadowlands Cup(NTR), he came in second to Affirmed in The JCGC............

He beat General Assembly and Coastal, both super talented horses, but also both 3YOs, in the Marlboro Cup. Just because it was open to older horses doesn't mean his real competition were older horses.

FATPIANO · #20 06-04-2012, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He beat General Assembly and Coastal, both super talented horses, but also both 3YOs, in the Marlboro Cup. Just because it was open to older horses doesn't mean his real competition were older horses.

Star de Naskra was a useful competitor, won The Whitney and was a Champion Sprinter, Cox's Ridge also won major races like The Met Mile, Haskell etc.